Thursday, Sep 21st

Papy’s Pieces 1.23

Papy is a full-time DFS player, with a focus on high-stakes tourneys, and with hundreds of thousands in lifetime profit

Welcome OWS fam to Papy’s pieces! I’m extremely excited to share a whole slate article with you guys and hopefully provide a useful tool in lineup building. My background in strategy games comes from chess, and building off that, I’m going to talk about “pieces” that like in chess, create a team. The player I highlight as each “piece” will make my condensed builds, with a real chance to make my single-entry lineup (where most of my money is bet each week). They’ll be categorized into pawns, knights, bishops, rooks, queens, and kings (the pieces on a chess board). I’m not going to create ridged standards (like a salary bracket for each piece) but pawns will generally be the cheapest, with pieces working their way up in price to Queens/Kings. The article will start with “The Board” where I’ll give a brief overview of a way to think about the slate, before going into Pieces. With the introduction out of the way, let’s figure out Week One!

The Board

Week 1 of DFS is always defined by an abundance of value. Player prices were set a month ago, rather than a week ago, and much has changed from a depth chart and injury perspective. Add in that player prices are based on last year, rather than what we’ve already seen this year, and Week 1 will always have massive pricing inefficiencies. The key to Week 1 DFS success is to realize we know a lot less than we think we know. Chalk will form around a handful of “must plays” based on perceived pricing mistakes. If you can find your courage and lean into players who aren’t labeled “must plays,” Week 1 becomes one of the easiest weeks to differentiate your lineups. It may feel scary to stay off the “obvious” plays, but what we think is obvious, is often anything but in Week 1. 

Pawn – Kenny Pickett ($5,200)

We all know Pickett is a below average talent, who played five years in college and only went in the first round because it was a weak class. We know he wasn’t very good last year, and we know that he gets an elite defense, in a game with a low total. We know less than we think. Pickett was one of the unluckiest QBs in the league last year across several metrics. The 49ers defense is sound, but its relative weakness is against the pass. The Steelers O-line is better at pass blocking and coming across the country for an early game is a tough spot for San Francisco (I bet the Steelers +3 a while back). Mike Tomlin isn’t a good coach, but he is an emotional one. Pickett’s local hero status in Pittsburgh has never been higher after a strong preseason. If he comes out hot, the roof is going to come off the stadium, and there is a good chance Tomlin will let him keep rolling.  As a bonus, he has two clear stacking partners in Diontae “What’s the end zone?” Johnson and George Pickens. Those stacks are going to make someone a lot of money this year, and it might be Week 1 at negligible ownership. 

Knight – Rachaad White ($5,500)

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