Thursday, Sep 5th
Monday, Sep 9th

Ownership Projection Details

  1. Ownership projections are based on the Millionaire Maker on DraftKings and the Sunday Million on FanDuel, though it should be noted that the correlation marks remain strong across all large tourneys. Even mid-sized tourneys carry a strong correlation with the projections you have in hand.
  2. Cash games tend to see ridiculous ownership spikes among the chalky players, as most people are “playing to not lose” in cash games instead of “playing to win.”
  3. High-dollar tourneys and single-entry tourneys will always be less predictable, as one is trying to predict individual-think rather than groupthink; with that said, these ownership projections continue to hold heavy value in those tourneys, as they can comfortably predict public sentiment, which bleeds into individual sentiment at the micro level. I recommend not worrying too much about ownership in single-entry and high-dollar, however, and simply playing what you feel is the best roster. The same goes for small-field tourneys (tourneys with only a few thousand entries). I’ve had winning weeks in single-entry tourneys and high-dollar tourneys in which every guy on my roster was chalky, and I’ve had winning weeks in single-entry tourneys and high-dollar tourneys in which all my guys were low-owned. “Building the best team you can build” should be the absolute first, second, and third focus in single-entry, small-field, and high-dollar tourneys (as well as in cash games!!!!), so think for yourself first, and worry about ownership as a distant second.
  4. All rankings are subject to change! As public sentiment solidifies during the second half of the week, things change in expected ownership, so keep that in mind when leaning on ownership projections early in the week. We rarely see huge changes; but changes will occur. Projections are usually posted on Wednesday night and updated Sunday morning about an hour before kickoff, and they usually receive a couple of additional rounds of updates in between.

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