Kickoff Thursday, Oct 22nd 8:15pm Eastern

Patriots (
24) at
Bears (
27)

Over/Under 51.0

Published Oct 22, 2026 · 9:32 AM ET

By XandamereBioHide

ABOUT THE WRITER

Xandamere is one of the most respected and consistently dominant Showdown players in DFS, and he builds the OWS ownership projections. He breaks down strategy and rules for every TNF, SNF, and MNF Showdown, and brings the same leverage-first read to the main-slate games he covers.

Go deeper: Xandamere’s Rules

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IC LITE – SHOWDOWN ::

GAME SETUP ::

Spread and total – Bears favored by three, 47.5 total, up three points since open.
Key context – Drake Maye’s last three games: 33.3 PPG and 10:1 TD:INT ratio; Bears defense is swiss cheese.

BEARS PIECES ::

D’Andre Swift – Home favorite RB with a passing game role; Monangai out again and Johnson fumbled last week, so Swift’s share could grow.
Roschon Johnson – Risky after the fumble, but RB2s in Showdown are historically underowned relative to how often they appear in winners.
Zavier Scott – Wild dart throw only if Johnson gets benched; plausible but thin.
Luther Burden – Has caught every single Caleb target this year and gets an easier slot matchup; favorite Bears pass catcher on the slate.
Rome Odunze – Ceiling is there but draws Christian Gonzalez, one of the few corners worth fading against.
Kalif Raymond – On the field but just 30 receiving yards over the last three games with only eight targets in that span.
Jahdae Walker and Zavion Thomas – Very small rotational WR roles, very thin dart throws.
Colston Loveland – 30 targets on the season, breakout 6/65/1 last week; underpriced at $6,400 for his talent even in a mediocre matchup.
Cole Kmet – Viable punt at $2,400 given heavy personnel usage, though Loveland gets the passing work (11 targets for Kmet vs. 30).

PATRIOTS PIECES ::

Rhamondre Stevenson – Touch projection probably mid-teens; $7,800 price is right but game plan likely skews pass-heavy.
TreVeyon Henderson – Still dealing with a high ankle sprain, 18–24% snaps the last two weeks, and fumbled last week.
Corey Kiner ($1,400) – Handled 11 carries last week with eight red zone touches in two weeks, as many as Rhamondre has all season.
A.J. Brown – Dropped three passes last week but drew 10 targets; Chicago’s secondary is legitimately awful and with Doubs on IR the WR corps is basically Brown and some dudes.
DeMario Douglas – Season-high eight targets with Doubs on IR; solid at $6,600, though Loveland is preferred at basically the same price.
Kyle Williams ($1,800) – Deep threat option who could pay off his salary on a single target; preferred over Chism of the two.
Efton Chism III – Had one target last week despite 62% snaps, though six the week before; high-risk tourney play.
Hunter Henry – Targets down to four per game but leads the team with five red zone targets; leaning Loveland and Douglas over him.
Eli Raridon – Cheap and role is growing with eight targets in the last two weeks, including four red zone targets.

Partly cloudy Game-day weather Played Game played. Hour by hourHide

Soldier Field, Chicago, IL · updated Thu 11:30 PM ET

How this works

Hour-by-hour forecasts from the National Weather Service (MET Norway abroad), refreshed every hour.
Only the hours of the game count. The hour before kickoff and the hour after are there for context.
The picture by each game is its weather during the game: snow, rain or wind when they reach the Low line, else the sky most of the game.
A game’s level is the highest any one reading reaches. When Hilow or Mike leave a DFS note, their level is the one shown.
“Feels like” includes wind chill and humidity. Times are Eastern. Retractable roofs show the outdoor forecast.

Built from stats and data. It’s a research tool: use it to inform your decisions, not to make them blindly.

Reading	7 PM Before	8 PM Kickoff	9 PM Game	10 PM Game	11 PM Game	12 AM After
Sky	Partly cloudy	Partly cloudy	Clear	Clear	Partly cloudy	Partly cloudy
Temp	59°	58°	59°	58°	58°	57°
Feels like	59°	58°	59°	58°	58°	57°
Rain / snow	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Wind mph	6 E	5 E	5 E	3 E	3 E	3 E
Gusts mph	6	5	5	5	5	5
Humidity	80%	85%	80%	82%	81%	81%

Every game’s weather →

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Xandamere is building his Bears-Patriots Showdown around a few specific targets like Loveland and A.J. Brown. A free account opens these opening reads.

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Kickoff Sunday, Oct 25th 9:30am Eastern

Steelers (
24) at
Saints (
21)

Over/Under 45.0

Published Oct 22, 2026 · 3:15 AM ET

By HilowBioHide

ABOUT THE WRITER

Hilow is a tournament champion and game-theory specialist focused on mid- and high-stakes single-entry and three-max play. In the NFL Edge he maps how each team will try to win and where the clearest DFS leverage sits.

Go deeper: The Theory of Roster Construction

IC LiteMinimizeShow

IC LITE – SHOWDOWN ::

GAME SETUP ::

Spread and total – Steelers favored by 3.5 with a 44.5-point total in the first NFL game played in France.
Context – Both teams rank in the bottom half of the league in EPA/play; Saints fifth in PROE+, Steelers 21st.

PITTSBURGH PIECES ::

Aaron Rodgers – Averaging 39.2 pass attempts per game behind a third-ranked PROE, making the passing game the clear offensive driver.
DK Metcalf and Germie Bernard – Combined for 61.4 percent of Rodgers’ targets in Week 6; Bernard matched Metcalf’s route participation and is likely supremely chalky at $6,800.
Jaylen Warren and Rico Dowdle – Dowdle siphoned 37.9 percent of backfield opportunities; Saints have allowed the most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields.
Pat Freiermuth and Darnell Washington – Route participation is modest, but Saints have filtered the fourth highest target rate and sixth most fantasy points to opposing tight ends.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling – Signed to the practice squad and has familiarity with both Rodgers and McCarthy dating back to Green Bay; could fill the WR3 role.
Braden Smith – Ran a 40.4 percent route participation rate in Week 6 as the WR3 option.

NEW ORLEANS PIECES ::

Tyler Shough – Tied for fourth most pass attempts per game at 39.2, but the offense ranks 21st in EPA/play and struggles with situational play calling.
Chris Olave – Clear alpha with 44.3 percent air yards share; leads the team in every primary metric against zone, and Pittsburgh runs zone at the fourth highest rate.
Kendre Miller – Led the team with 20 rush attempts in Week 6, holding a 53.3 percent opportunity share the past two weeks at a modest $5,000 salary.
Alvin Kamara and CJ Donaldson – Kamara at 26.7 percent and Donaldson at 20 percent opportunity share against a Steelers defense allowing 3.95 yards per carry.
Devaughn Vele and Bryce Lance – Vele ran an 88.7 percent route participation rate and Lance at 74.6 percent as the secondary pass catchers behind Olave.
Juwan Johnson – 68.0 percent route participation; only other tight end seeing meaningful routes alongside Noah Fant (25.4 percent), with Oscar Delp hardly utilized.

Injury report 5 injured ShowHide Skowronek (PIT) Out · Tyson (NO) IR · Dowdle (PIT) limited · +2 more

How this works

DNP Did not practice L Limited F Full

Status is the team’s call for the game, set on the final report (usually Friday). Until then it reads “No status yet”. A dash means no report that day.

Built from stats and data. It’s a research tool: use it to inform your decisions, not to make them blindly.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Player	Injury	Wed	Thu	Fri	Status
RBRico DowdleKnee	Knee	L	L		No status yet
WRBen SkowronekCalf	Calf	DNP	DNP		Out

New Orleans Saints

Player	Injury	Wed	Thu	Fri	Status
RBAlvin KamaraBack	Back	L	L		No status yet
RBCJ DonaldsonShoulder	Shoulder	L	F		No status yet

Also out, not on the practice report: Jordyn Tyson WR IR

Every team’s injury report →

Windy (17 mph) Game-day weather Weather: Low Wind 17 mph in the first half. Hour by hourHide

Stade de France, Saint-Denis, France · updated Fri 10:30 AM ET

How this works

Hour-by-hour forecasts from the National Weather Service (MET Norway abroad), refreshed every hour.
Only the hours of the game count. The hour before kickoff and the hour after are there for context.
The picture by each game is its weather during the game: snow, rain or wind when they reach the Low line, else the sky most of the game.
A game’s level is the highest any one reading reaches. When Hilow or Mike leave a DFS note, their level is the one shown.
“Feels like” includes wind chill and humidity. Times are Eastern. Retractable roofs show the outdoor forecast.

Built from stats and data. It’s a research tool: use it to inform your decisions, not to make them blindly.

Reading	8 AM Before	9 AM Kickoff	10 AM Game	11 AM Game	12 PM Game	1 PM After
Sky	Partly cloudy	Partly cloudy	Partly cloudy	Partly cloudy	Partly cloudy	Partly cloudy
Temp	58°	59°	58°	58°	56°	54°
Feels like	58°	59°	58°	58°	56°	54°
Rain / snow	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Wind mph	17 W	17 W	17 W	14 W	12 W	10 W
Humidity	57%	52%	53%	56%	59%	63%

Every game’s weather →

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Kickoff Sunday, Oct 25th 1:00pm Eastern

49ers (
26.25) at
Falcons (
23.75)

Over/Under 50.0

Published Oct 23, 2026 · 3:03 AM ET

By HilowBioHide

ABOUT THE WRITER

Hilow is a tournament champion and game-theory specialist focused on mid- and high-stakes single-entry and three-max play. In the NFL Edge he maps how each team will try to win and where the clearest DFS leverage sits.

Go deeper: The Theory of Roster Construction

IC LiteMinimizeShow

IC LITE – NFL EDGE ::

GAME SETUP ::

Evans and Deebo likely out for SF; Christian Kirk may make his season debut.
Brian Robinson downgraded to DNP Thursday with a hamstring injury.

SAN FRANCISCO PATH ::

Brock Purdy holds the all-time record for highest career passer rating after 1,500 attempts; Shanahan having a full week to plan without top receivers leaves more confidence.
Christian McCaffrey averaged 20 opportunities per game since Week 4 and drew 10 targets against the pass-funnel Commanders; Falcons are the league’s second-biggest pass funnel.

ATLANTA PATH ::

Bijan Robinson could see elite volume if Brian Robinson misses, since Atlanta carries only two RBs on the 53 and practice-squad options are Khalil Herbert and Jam Miller; the game environment needs to cooperate because the SF run defense holds opponents to 3.64 YPC and 92.1 rush yards per game.
Drake London owns a massive 4.32 YPRR in heavy personnel, trailing only Evans, Zay Flowers, and Justin Jefferson in 2026, though he has zero touchdowns this season; this is a London-or-bust aerial offense with Kyle Pitts running routes on only 63.2% of dropbacks.

LIKELIEST GAME FLOW ::

SF’s WR losses open the door for Atlanta to keep the game fluid and balanced, where the Falcons’ play-action offense thrives.
If SF finds early success and forces Atlanta one-dimensional, the Falcons’ play-action rate collapses as it did in the Bears loss.

Injury report 6 injured ShowHide Samuel (SF) Out · Kirk (SF) IR · Collins (ATL) IR · +3 more

How this works

DNP Did not practice L Limited F Full

Status is the team’s call for the game, set on the final report (usually Friday). Until then it reads “No status yet”. A dash means no report that day.

Built from stats and data. It’s a research tool: use it to inform your decisions, not to make them blindly.

San Francisco 49ers

Player	Injury	Wed	Thu	Status
WRChristian KirkCalf	Calf	F	F	On IR
WRDeebo Samuel Sr.Hamstring	Hamstring	DNP	DNP	Out
WRMike EvansRibs, Achilles	Ribs, Achilles	DNP	DNP	No status yet

Atlanta Falcons

Player	Injury	Wed	Thu	Status
RBBrian RobinsonHamstring	Hamstring	L	DNP	No status yet
WRBeaux CollinsHip	Hip	L	F	On IR
WROlamide ZaccheausShoulder	Shoulder	L	L	No status yet

Every team’s injury report →

Retractable roof Game-day weather Retractable roof — usually closed when the weather is bad. Hour by hourHide

Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA · updated Fri 10:30 AM ET

How this works

Hour-by-hour forecasts from the National Weather Service (MET Norway abroad), refreshed every hour.
Only the hours of the game count. The hour before kickoff and the hour after are there for context.
The picture by each game is its weather during the game: snow, rain or wind when they reach the Low line, else the sky most of the game.
A game’s level is the highest any one reading reaches. When Hilow or Mike leave a DFS note, their level is the one shown.
“Feels like” includes wind chill and humidity. Times are Eastern. Retractable roofs show the outdoor forecast.

Built from stats and data. It’s a research tool: use it to inform your decisions, not to make them blindly.

Reading	12 PM Before	1 PM Kickoff	2 PM Game	3 PM Game	4 PM Game	5 PM After
Sky	Sunny	Sunny	Sunny	Sunny	Sunny	Sunny
Temp	62°	65°	67°	68°	69°	68°
Feels like	62°	65°	67°	68°	69°	68°
Rain / snow	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Wind mph	12 ENE	12 ENE	12 ENE	12 ENE	12 ENE	10 ENE
Gusts mph	20	20	20	20	18	18
Humidity	52%	46%	42%	40%	39%	41%

Every game’s weather →

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GAME OVERVIEW::

WRs Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel Sr. have not practiced through Thursday. The expectation is that both will miss Week 7 against the Falcons with the team’s bye the following week. In somewhat positive news, WR Christian Kirk appears set to make his season debut.
RB Brian Robinson downgraded from limited Wednesday to DNP Thursday with a hamstring injury. The mid-week downgrade seems to indicate the injury occurred during Wednesday’s session.
The Falcons are built to play with a lead, something we’ve seen lead to significant problems when they’ve fallen behind this season. The reason for that is that so much of what makes their offense so potent is built behind the run game.
The 49ers are built to snatch your soul.

HOW SAN FRANCISCO WILL TRY TO WIN::

Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers rank first in the league in EPA/play, third in scoring at 29.5 points per game, and ninth in total offense with 366.7 yards per game. I would best describe this 49ers offense as one with a methodical dismantling approach, running things within the system as they place consistent stress on opponents through a jab-jab-cross approach, hunting for knockout blows. They also have the all-time NFL record holder for highest career passer rating in former Mr. Irrelevant Brock Purdy, who threw his 1,500th pass attempt in Week 6 and qualified for that metric. All of that said, I have some significant concerns with what they showed in the second half against the Commanders. They gained an absurd 302 yards of total offense in the first half with a healthy-ish Mike Evans and managed only 67 yards after the break, playing without five starter-worthy wide receivers once Evans departed. I also want to keep in mind how different it is to game plan an entire week to be without players and how different it is for a player, or players, to depart during a game. Finally, we have a fairly significant sample of what happens to the remaining skill position players when other primary dudes are absent under Shanahan, with volume most often simply concentrating even hardy amongst the healthy players. For Week 7, the remaining starters are legitimately only Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, and George Kittle.

Christian McCaffrey has averaged 70.6 percent of the team’s backfield opportunities in the previous three games, up from 59.8 percent the first three games. The bump in snaps and opportunity rate has resulted in CMC averaging 20 opportunities per game since Week 4, and we just saw him throw down with a 10-target game against the pass-funnel Commanders. That’s interesting considering the matchup against the pass-funnel Falcons who have held opposing backfields to 3.98 yards per carry while facing the second most pass attempts per game. The 49ers aren’t going to come out and have Purdy slinging the football around the yard, but another 30-34 attempts through the air could easily lead to another double-digit target game for McCaffrey considering the matchup and state of the pass catchers on the team currently. That is enough to make him a solid point-per-dollar play on the Week 7 main slate. Kaelon Black will continue serving as the primary change of pace option, most notably in a role that is less about giving him drives as it is spelling CMC, something that lies in direct contrast to how the Robinson brothers operate on the other side of this game.

Man, your guess is as good as mine regarding what to expect from the San Francisco pass offense here. Here’s what we know. Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel Sr. are likely to miss Week 7 with the team’s Week 8 bye just one week away, making it now five wide receivers unavailable. There is the potential, if not likelihood, that the team gets back one of those players, albeit that player is Christian Kirk and not one of the top four options. The pass offense has historically concentrated harder on its remaining top options when others miss, meaning I would expect a heavier reliance on CMC and George Kittle through the air. And this entire offense looked putrid in the second half last week after Evans departed. I mean, 67 yards of offense in an entire half of football is not good. George Kittle gained 35 of those yards on one reception. That said, knowing Kyle Shanahan and knowing the difference between losing a player during the game and having a full week to prepare leave me more confident in the 49ers continuing to achieve offensive success than the alternative of figuring things to be broken. As such, the aerial production has to go somewhere, and it appears most likely to simply concentrate on CMC and Kittle. Expect Jordan Watkins to be on the field a bunch, expect Brandin Cooks to be utilized as the only remaining field stretcher, and expect Kirk to see some gadgetry drawn up, ala Deebo Samuel Sr. Jacob Cowing is a player on the 53-man roster in San Francisco.

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DFS+ INTERPRETATION::

DFS+ interpretations are fully live by Friday.

Added Oct 23, 2026 · 3:03 AM ET

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Read The Interpretation

Hilow builds toward the DFS+ Interpretation, the section where raw NFL Edge data turns into actionable plays. This is where the slate shifts.

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Kickoff Sunday, Oct 25th 1:00pm Eastern

Browns (
19.5) at
Titans (
18)

Over/Under 37.5

Injury report 5 injured ShowHide Sampson (CLE) IR · Judkins (CLE) limited · Boston (CLE) limited · +2 more

How this works

DNP Did not practice L Limited F Full

Status is the team's call for the game, set on the final report (usually Friday). Until then it reads "No status yet". A dash means no report that day.

Built from stats and data. It’s a research tool: use it to inform your decisions, not to make them blindly.

Cleveland Browns

Player	Injury	Wed	Thu	Status
RBDylan SampsonKnee	Knee	L	L	On IR
RBQuinshon JudkinsAnkle	Ankle	L	L	No status yet
WRDenzel BostonFoot	Foot	L	L	No status yet
WRKC ConcepcionCalf, Quadricep	Calf, Quadricep	L	L	No status yet

Tennessee Titans

Player	Injury	Wed	Thu	Fri	Status
WRCalvin RidleyHip	Hip	L	DNP		No status yet

Every team's injury report →

Sunny Game-day weather Sunny, dry, 72–77°, wind 3 mph Hour by hourHide

Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN · updated Fri 10:30 AM ET

How this works

Hour-by-hour forecasts from the National Weather Service (MET Norway abroad), refreshed every hour.
Only the hours of the game count. The hour before kickoff and the hour after are there for context.
The picture by each game is its weather during the game: snow, rain or wind when they reach the Low line, else the sky most of the game.
A game's level is the highest any one reading reaches. When Hilow or Mike leave a DFS note, their level is the one shown.
"Feels like" includes wind chill and humidity. Times are Eastern. Retractable roofs show the outdoor forecast.

Built from stats and data. It’s a research tool: use it to inform your decisions, not to make them blindly.

Reading	12 PM Before	1 PM Kickoff	2 PM Game	3 PM Game	4 PM Game	5 PM After
Sky	Sunny	Sunny	Sunny	Sunny	Sunny	Sunny
Temp	68°	72°	74°	77°	77°	77°
Feels like	68°	72°	74°	77°	77°	77°
Rain / snow	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Wind mph	1 S	1 SE	1 ESE	2 ESE	3 E	3 ENE
Gusts mph	5	3	3	5	6	7
Humidity	51%	44%	40%	36%	35%	35%

Every game's weather →

Game toolsShowHideProjections, matchups, stacks, props and stats for CLE and TEN only

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Check back Thursday for the full game-by-game breakdown in the NFL Edge!

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 25th 1:00pm Eastern

Colts (
17.5) at
Vikings (
24)

Over/Under 41.5

Published Oct 22, 2026 · 1:56 PM ET

By HilowBioHide

ABOUT THE WRITER

Hilow is a tournament champion and game-theory specialist focused on mid- and high-stakes single-entry and three-max play. In the NFL Edge he maps how each team will try to win and where the clearest DFS leverage sits.

Go deeper: The Theory of Roster Construction

IC LiteMinimizeShow

IC LITE – NFL EDGE ::

GAME SETUP ::

Colts dysfunction – Daniel Jones ranks 36th in EPA/play, OL yields second-highest pressure rate over expected, and Alec Pierce and Tyler Warren are absent.
Vikings nearing full strength – Jordan Mason, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson all practiced fully Wednesday; Justin Jefferson expected to play despite a limited Wednesday.

COLTS PATH ::

Jonathan Taylor – Career-low 4.0 YPC and Minnesota allows the fewest fantasy points per game to RBs while ranking first in defensive ARBY.
Daniel Jones vs. blitz – 5.70 YPA (30th), 69.3 passer rating (33rd), and zero TDs against the blitz this season. Brian Flores leads the league in both blitz rate and two-high usage, a recipe for disaster.

Injury report 8 injured ShowHide Pierce (IND) IR · Mason (MIN) IR · Oliver (MIN) IR · +5 more

How this works

DNP Did not practice L Limited F Full

Status is the team’s call for the game, set on the final report (usually Friday). Until then it reads “No status yet”. A dash means no report that day.

Built from stats and data. It’s a research tool: use it to inform your decisions, not to make them blindly.

Indianapolis Colts

Player	Injury	Wed	Thu	Status
WRAnthony GouldConcussion	Concussion	DNP	DNP	No status yet
WRAshton DulinHamstring	Hamstring	L	L	No status yet
TEAndrew OgletreeAnkle	Ankle	DNP	F	No status yet
TETyler WarrenGroin	Groin	DNP	DNP	No status yet

Also out, not on the practice report: Alec Pierce WR IR

Minnesota Vikings

Player	Injury	Wed	Thu	Fri	Status
RBJordan MasonThumb	Thumb	F	F		On IR
WRJustin JeffersonAnkle	Ankle	L	F		No status yet

Also out, not on the practice report: Josh Oliver TE IR

Every team’s injury report →

Indoors Game-day weather Indoors — weather won't matter.

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GAME OVERVIEW::

Colts owner Carlie Irsay-Gordon fired GM Chris Ballard following an implosion loss to the then-winless Titans in Week 6.
Rumors continue to swirl about the possibility the Colts become significant sellers at the trade deadline in just over two weeks (the Tuesday following Week 9).
The absence of Alec Pierce continues to force the Colts into one-dimensionality, hindering their ability to remain balanced on offense while leading to poor offensive efficiency.
Nearly a third of the 53-man roster was on the injury report Wednesday for the Colts. The most notable absences were CBs Sauce Gardner and Justin Walley and TE Tyler Warren. WR Keenan Allen and CB Charvarius Ward were absent but with ‘rest’ designations.
All of WR Jordan Addison, TE T.J. Hockenson, and RB Jordan Mason managed full practices on Wednesday, with Mason appearing likely to be activated from injured reserve to face the Colts. WR Justin Jefferson was limited Wednesday with an ankle injury. I expect him to play.

HOW INDIANAPOLIS WILL TRY TO WIN::

The Colts have been a veritable disaster through ineffective quarterback play, underperforming offensive line play, and injuries. Daniel Jones ranks 36th in EPA/play, of 42 quarterbacks to qualify, the Indianapolis offensive line has yielded the second highest pressure rate over expected, and the absences of Alec Pierce and now Tyler Warren have made their offense completely one-dimensional, with no downfield threat and a congested middle of the field. Their defense hasn’t fared much better while allowing 351.2 yards of offense per game (24th) and 27.3 points per game (27th). Add it all up and the Colts have yet to be able to operate within the structure that made them so potent during the first half of the 2025 season. The “pass to score, run to win” mentality appears unlikely to make an appearance against the stingy, and aggressive, Vikings defense.

Workhorse running back Jonathan Taylor is averaging a career low 4.0 yards per carry despite seeing a stacked box on only 3.3 percent of his totes through six weeks. He has also yet to crack 100 yards on the ground despite the second most rush attempts (122, or just over 20 per game). That said, Taylor has faced one of the most difficult rushing strength of schedules in the league after playing the Ravens, Chiefs, Texans, Commanders, Steelers, and Titans. The problem for him in the scope of Week 7 is that his matchup doesn’t get any better against a Vikings defense ranked first in fantasy points per game allowed to running backs (15.1), first in defensive ARBY, and eighth in yards allowed per rush attempt (3.81). While Taylor ranks second in the league in backfield opportunity share at 85.3 percent, it will likely take explosive runs to push him over the 100-yard bonus for the first time in 2026.

The absences in the offense left the Colts with Laquon Treadwell leading the team in route rate against the Titans (90.0 percent), not exactly a place you want to find yourself in as a head coach. Josh Downs (88.0 percent), Keenan Allen (74.0 percent), and practice squad call-up Will Mallory (68.0 percent) rounded out the primary pass catchers, with tight ends Mo Alie-Cox and Drew Ogletree and wide receiver Deion Burks contributing in package roles. As we are all too familiar with at this point in the season, Brian Flores’ defense leads the league in both blitz rate and two-high utilization, setting up a recipe for disaster for Daniel Jones and company. Jones has been one of the most pressure-sensitive quarterbacks in the league this season, particularly flustered when blitzed. His 5.70 yards per attempt against the blitz ranks 30th, of quarterbacks with more than 20 dropbacks, his 69.3 passer rating against the blitz ranks 33rd, and he has thrown one interception to zero touchdowns when blitzed this season. Downs has been particularly poor against two-high alignments in 2026, returning a 15.91 percent first-read target rate, 15.7 percent targets per route run, 0.77 yards per route run, and 0.18 fantasy points per route run against that primary alignment. Allen leads the team in all four of those metrics in that split this season but is likely to require significant volume in a short area role, fighting through both nagging injury and modest route rates to do so.

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Hilow is mapping how Minnesota’s defense reshapes both sides of this slate, with Jordan Mason’s return and Jefferson’s ceiling hinging on game flow. Sign up free.

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DFS+ INTERPRETATION::

DFS+ interpretations are fully live by Friday.

Added Oct 22, 2026 · 1:56 PM ET

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The Interpretation Matters

Hilow has mapped out the DFS+ Interpretation, the layer where raw projections become actionable roster decisions. This is where the NFL Edge sharpens.

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Kickoff Sunday, Oct 25th 1:00pm Eastern

Dolphins (
17.25) at
Jets (
21.75)

Over/Under 39.0

Published Oct 22, 2026 · 1:37 PM ET

By PapyBioHide

ABOUT THE WRITER

Papy324 is a full-time DFS player with hundreds of thousands in lifetime profit, specializing in high-stakes tournaments. His process combines chess strategy, on-field knowledge, and a disciplined approach to tighter builds.

IC LiteMinimizeShow

IC LITE – NFL EDGE ::

GAME SETUP ::

Jets favored at home (-4.5) in a low-total (39.5) game between uneven rosters.
Dolphins (0-5) are arguably the worst team in football and void of talent.

MIAMI PATH ::

Dolphins want to run until the scoreboard forces them to pass, but they’re always behind.
Malik Willis is cheap and has rushing upside, but he hasn’t topped double-digit rush attempts yet.

NEW YORK PATH ::

Frank Reich should open pass-first against Miami’s 31st-ranked pass DVOA, then salt the game away on the ground.
Braelon Allen has played 86%+ snaps in every game since Breece Hall went down, getting ~20 opportunities per week.

LIKELIEST GAME FLOW ::

Jets take a lead through the air, then milk the clock on the ground in the second half.
Both teams play slowly, with the Jets winning by multiple scores as the Dolphins struggle to score.

Injury report 6 injured ShowHide Wright (MIA) limited · Douglas (MIA) limited · Kacmarek (MIA) limited · +3 more

How this works

DNP Did not practice L Limited F Full

Status is the team’s call for the game, set on the final report (usually Friday). Until then it reads “No status yet”. A dash means no report that day.

Built from stats and data. It’s a research tool: use it to inform your decisions, not to make them blindly.

Miami Dolphins

Player	Injury	Wed	Thu	Status
RBJaylen WrightFoot	Foot	L	L	No status yet
WRCaleb DouglasAnkle	Ankle	L	L	No status yet
TEWill KacmarekHamstring	Hamstring	L	L	No status yet

New York Jets

Player	Injury	Wed	Thu	Status
RBBreece HallQuadricep	Quadricep	DNP	L	No status yet
RBKene NwangwuKnee	Knee	DNP	DNP	No status yet
WRAdonai MitchellFinger	Finger	L	L	No status yet

Every team’s injury report →

Sunny Game-day weather Sunny, dry, 63–65°, wind 2 mph Hour by hourHide

MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ · updated Fri 10:30 AM ET

How this works

Hour-by-hour forecasts from the National Weather Service (MET Norway abroad), refreshed every hour.
Only the hours of the game count. The hour before kickoff and the hour after are there for context.
The picture by each game is its weather during the game: snow, rain or wind when they reach the Low line, else the sky most of the game.
A game’s level is the highest any one reading reaches. When Hilow or Mike leave a DFS note, their level is the one shown.
“Feels like” includes wind chill and humidity. Times are Eastern. Retractable roofs show the outdoor forecast.

Built from stats and data. It’s a research tool: use it to inform your decisions, not to make them blindly.

Reading	12 PM Before	1 PM Kickoff	2 PM Game	3 PM Game	4 PM Game	5 PM After
Sky	Sunny	Sunny	Sunny	Sunny	Sunny	Sunny
Temp	61°	63°	64°	65°	65°	64°
Feels like	61°	63°	64°	65°	65°	64°
Rain / snow	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Wind mph	1 WNW	2 W	2 W	2 WSW	2 WSW	2 SW
Gusts mph	3	3	5	5	5	5
Humidity	38%	34%	33%	33%	33%	37%

Every game’s weather →

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Game Overview

Geno Smith can post 300 yards against the Dolphins, but he’s not going to need to if they can’t fight back.
Braelon Allen looks likely to start another game. He’s played over 85% of the snaps in every game since Breece Hall went down. His price has barely moved.
All the Jets WRs have a plus matchup, but they have the same game-flow concerns as Smith.
Mason Taylor and Kenyon Sadiq are stuck in a value killing time share.
Malik Willis is cheap and has the upside to rush for 100 yards plus a score.
Ollie Gordon has taken over the Dolphins backfield, but he’s a non-factor in the passing game which makes him game-flow dependent.
Malik Washington is priced for his consistency, not his ceiling. None of the other Dolphins pass catchers are more than dart throws.
The Jets defense is one of the better options on the slate.

How Miami Will Try to Win

They won’t. The 0-5 Dolphins come into Week 7 with a real chance to go 0-17. Looking at their schedule, they probably must win one of their two games against the Jets, on the road against the Colts, or late in the season against the Chargers to avoid a winless season. The only other teams to lose every game are the 1976 Bucs (0-14), the 2008 Lions (0-16), and 2017 Browns (0-16). No team has ever gone 0-17. The Bucs were an expansion team. The Lions and Browns were bad, but their rosters included players like Calvin Johnson, Myles Garrett, and Joe Thomas. The Dolphins aren’t just bad; they’re void of talent. If they end up finishing 0-17, they have a strong case for the worst team of all time. Jeff Haley is the man in charge in Miami. He spent the past two seasons as the Packers’ defensive coordinator and generally concerns himself with the defense. That leaves the offense in the hands of Bobby Slowik. Slowik has never had success at the coordinator level, with the best part of his resume being a “passing game specialist” for the 49ers. Basically, he was associated with a Mike Shanahan offense, so he got promoted by another team. The Dolphins O-line has been weak (25th ranked by PFF). There isn’t a bright spot on the line. Everyone is below average or bad. The Dolphins have been playing slowly (28th in second per play) which is remarkable considering that they’re always losing. They’ve done nothing but run (32nd in PROE), which makes sense since Malik Willis is the magic man throwing the ball. The Dolphins want to shorten the game and win on the ground, but they’re always behind and can’t run the ball.

The Jets have been below average against the pass (18th in DVOA) and hurt on the ground (24th in DVOA). The Jets defense hasn’t been great at anything, but they’ve been solid enough and aren’t a walkover. Slowik doesn’t have the talent to creatively scheme attacking the weakness of a defense, which is made more difficult with the worst roster in football. The Dolphins don’t have the luxury of trying to get cute, they have one strategy and that is to try and run the ball until the scoreboard forces them to pass. The fact that the Jets defense is slightly weaker against the run is a happy coincidence. Willis has attempted over 27 passes once this season, and if this game plays out the way the Dolphins hope, it’s going to be another game where he fails to break 30 pass attempts. Expect the Dolphins to try and win on the ground.

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How This Game Flows

Papy is mapping out exactly how the Jets exploit Miami’s league-worst pass rush and secondary, and when Reich pivots to salt the clock. Free signup unlocks it.

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DFS Interpretation

DFS+ interpretations are fully live by Friday.

Added Oct 22, 2026 · 1:37 PM ET

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The Mispriced Edge

Papy is building around Braelon Allen’s suppressed price tag and a specific game-flow stack that hinges on whether the Jets cruise or get pushed.

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Kickoff Sunday, Oct 25th 1:00pm Eastern

Bucs (
20.75) at
Panthers (
23.75)

Over/Under 44.5

Published Oct 22, 2026 · 11:03 PM ET

By HilowBioHide

ABOUT THE WRITER

Hilow is a tournament champion and game-theory specialist focused on mid- and high-stakes single-entry and three-max play. In the NFL Edge he maps how each team will try to win and where the clearest DFS leverage sits.

Go deeper: The Theory of Roster Construction

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IC LITE – NFL EDGE ::

GAME SETUP ::

Mayfield returns from three-game absence; Egbuka likely out with concussion and foot issues.
Bucky Irving dealing with illness but upgraded to limited Thursday; Panthers missing both starting corners.

TAMPA BAY PATH ::

Bucky Irving saw career-high 33 routes in Week 6 and faces the 31st-ranked rush defense allowing 5.10 YPC.
Kenny Gainwell dropped from 35-45% of snaps to 15% in Week 6 without injury, suggesting Irving’s workload spike could persist.

CAROLINA PATH ::

Chuba Hubbard holds one of the league’s most robust roles at 84-94% snap rates and 23-30 opportunities per game.
AJ Dillon appears set to return as the primary change of pace option, which could cut into Hubbard’s 94% snap rate.

LIKELIEST GAME FLOW ::

Panthers early success could push the Bucs into uncomfortable territory, especially without Egbuka.
Game plays to extremes based on whether Bowles’ blitz suppresses Carolina, but overall upside trails most spots on this slate.

Injury report 3 injured ShowHide Brooks (CAR) IR · Irving (TB) limited · Egbuka (TB) DNP

How this works

DNP Did not practice L Limited F Full

Status is the team’s call for the game, set on the final report (usually Friday). Until then it reads “No status yet”. A dash means no report that day.

Built from stats and data. It’s a research tool: use it to inform your decisions, not to make them blindly.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Player	Injury	Wed	Thu	Fri	Status
RBBucky IrvingIllness	Illness	DNP	L		No status yet
WREmeka EgbukaConcussion, Foot	Concussion, Foot	DNP	DNP		No status yet

Carolina Panthers

No injured fantasy players.

Also out, not on the practice report: Jonathon Brooks RB IR

Every team’s injury report →

Sunny Game-day weather Sunny, dry, 65–69°, wind 10 mph Hour by hourHide

Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC · updated Fri 10:30 AM ET

How this works

Hour-by-hour forecasts from the National Weather Service (MET Norway abroad), refreshed every hour.
Only the hours of the game count. The hour before kickoff and the hour after are there for context.
The picture by each game is its weather during the game: snow, rain or wind when they reach the Low line, else the sky most of the game.
A game’s level is the highest any one reading reaches. When Hilow or Mike leave a DFS note, their level is the one shown.
“Feels like” includes wind chill and humidity. Times are Eastern. Retractable roofs show the outdoor forecast.

Built from stats and data. It’s a research tool: use it to inform your decisions, not to make them blindly.

Reading	12 PM Before	1 PM Kickoff	2 PM Game	3 PM Game	4 PM Game	5 PM After
Sky	Sunny	Sunny	Sunny	Sunny	Sunny	Sunny
Temp	61°	65°	67°	68°	69°	68°
Feels like	61°	65°	67°	68°	69°	68°
Rain / snow	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Wind mph	12 NNE	10 NE	10 NE	10 NE	10 NE	10 NE
Gusts mph	20	20	20	20	20	18
Humidity	63%	56%	51%	49%	49%	51%

Every game’s weather →

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GAME OVERVIEW::

QB Baker Mayfield appears set to return from a three-game absence due to a dislocated thumb on his throwing hand. He logged consecutive full sessions in practice through Thursday.
WR Emeka Egbuka has been sidelined through Thursday with concussion and foot designations. He was reportedly off to the side working with trainers Thursday.
Flu season appears to be in full swing for the Bucs, who have multiple players listed on the injury report with an illness. The most notable of which is lead back Bucky Irving, although he upgraded from DNP Wednesday to limited Thursday.
The Panthers remain relatively healthy on the offensive side of the ball but are still without both starting perimeter corners.

HOW TAMPA BAY WILL TRY TO WIN::

Todd Bowles is a defensive-minded head coach that has his hand in how the offense is run, notably suppressing offensive aggression unless, or until, otherwise forced. The name of the game for the Buccaneers is to keep the game within reach late. Look no further than their 2025 season in which they were involved in 12 one-possession games, a remarkable nine of which were decided by three points or fewer. Furthermore, every single one of their six games to start 2026 have been decided by eight points or fewer, including the Week 6 overtime loss to the Steelers. Four of their six games so far have played to 42 points or fewer, with the two outliers being a 33-27, Week 1 loss to the Bengals and their 26-19, Week 6 loss in overtime. If Bowles has his way, games play tight and on the lower-scoring end.

I can’t point to a reason for the sudden boost to lead back Bucky Irving’s workload against the Steelers. Sure, Sean Tucker was absent with injury, but he had played no more than seven offensive snaps all season. Kenny Gainwell took the largest hit in snaps and opportunities, falling from a standard “change of pace” range of 35-45 percent of the offensive snaps to a paltry 15 percent in Week 6. Gainwell wasn’t injured during the game. That resulted in a career-high 33 routes for Irving in addition to the 19 carries he saw. The modest three targets tell a much more muted story there, with clear upside for more through the air if that level of participation in the route structure persists. And since I can’t point to the causal factors that led to the increase in workload for Irving, I have to think that it could continue forward into the top rushing matchup the Buccaneers have seen all season. The Panthers rank 31st in defensive ARBY and dead last in yards allowed per carry (5.10) while the Tampa Bay offensive line has performed extremely well in run-blocking metrics now that they have maintained their health, ranking fifth in ARBY while their backs have averaged 4.40 yards per carry (ninth).

Bucs fans, I’m sorry for this in advance: Buccaneers quarterbacks rank 39th (Jalon Daniels) and 42nd (Baker Mayfield) in EPA/play this season, out of 42 qualifiers. Yea, the quarterback play has not been great. And yet, this team has yet to be blown out, have been in every game they’ve played, and has played to six one-score games. That’s some level of silver lining, I suppose, but the down-to-down play under center has been literally the worst in the league. Veteran Chris Godwin is not the same receiver he was before the injury, something that is evident on tape and in the statistics. His 0.15 TPRR would be a career-low mark if it holds throughout the season. For how much I liked Egbuka in Best Ball coming into the season, I have to say, he did not make the second year leap I thought he would, at least not yet. I reasoned his middling production during his rookie season away as heavily influenced by the continuous changes in role due to the injuries to both Mike Evans and Godwin being in and out of the lineup, but it appears as if he’s got a ways to go before we can regard him as a true alpha in the league. That could still happen, but it is not as close as I once thought. Rookie Ted Hurst and Tez Johnson are now rotating through situational roles as two very different receivers. Tight end Cade Otton has a 0.15 TPRR and has yet to emerge away from mounting injuries throughout his career. It’s just kind of a sum-of-all-parts offense through the air currently, with no true direction, stability, or emergence. Here’s a crazy stat: the season-high for receiving yards from a single receiver from the Buccaneers is 64 yards, and it came on one reception from Johnson against the Cowboys. In fact, Johnson has led the team in receiving on one reception on two separate occasions this season, and he’s played more than 39 percent of the offensive snaps just once. That highlights the state of this pass game.

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Finish The Breakdown

Hilow is building his read around how Bryce Young handles Tampa’s blitz and why Jalen Coker’s single-high splits deserve more attention. Sign up free.

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DFS+ INTERPRETATION::

DFS+ interpretations are fully live by Friday.

Added Oct 22, 2026 · 11:03 PM ET

Inner Circle Members Only

The Interpretation Matters

Hilow has mapped out the DFS+ Interpretation, the layer where raw projections become actionable NFL lineup decisions. This is where the edge takes shape.

Read The Interpretation

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 25th 1:00pm Eastern

Bengals (
23.75) at
Ravens (
25.25)

Over/Under 49.0

Published Oct 23, 2026 · 10:33 AM ET

By HilowBioHide

ABOUT THE WRITER

Hilow is a tournament champion and game-theory specialist focused on mid- and high-stakes single-entry and three-max play. In the NFL Edge he maps how each team will try to win and where the clearest DFS leverage sits.

Go deeper: The Theory of Roster Construction

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IC LITE – NFL EDGE ::

GAME SETUP ::

Bengals health – Cleanest injury report of the season after Week 6 bye.
Lamar Jackson – Returned to limited practice Thursday; ankle injury severity still in question.

BENGALS PATH ::

Chase Brown – Opportunity share dropped to 51.5% against Miami; Ravens rank 9th in defensive ARBY, making run efficiency unlikely.
Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins – Dominate the target share in a pass-heavy attack averaging 37.8 attempts per game.

Injury report 4 injured ShowHide Hudson (CIN) IR · Jackson (BAL) limited · Bateman (BAL) full · +1 more

How this works

DNP Did not practice L Limited F Full

Status is the team’s call for the game, set on the final report (usually Friday). Until then it reads “No status yet”. A dash means no report that day.

Built from stats and data. It’s a research tool: use it to inform your decisions, not to make them blindly.

Cincinnati Bengals

No injured fantasy players.

Also out, not on the practice report: Tanner Hudson TE IR

Baltimore Ravens

Player	Injury	Wed	Thu	Status
QBLamar JacksonAnkle	Ankle	L	L	No status yet
WRRashod BatemanShoulder	Shoulder	L	F	No status yet
TEMatthew HibnerHand	Hand	L	F	No status yet

Every team’s injury report →

Sunny Game-day weather Sunny, dry, 64–66°, wind 2 mph Hour by hourHide

M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD · updated Fri 10:30 AM ET

How this works

Hour-by-hour forecasts from the National Weather Service (MET Norway abroad), refreshed every hour.
Only the hours of the game count. The hour before kickoff and the hour after are there for context.
The picture by each game is its weather during the game: snow, rain or wind when they reach the Low line, else the sky most of the game.
A game’s level is the highest any one reading reaches. When Hilow or Mike leave a DFS note, their level is the one shown.
“Feels like” includes wind chill and humidity. Times are Eastern. Retractable roofs show the outdoor forecast.

Built from stats and data. It’s a research tool: use it to inform your decisions, not to make them blindly.

Reading	12 PM Before	1 PM Kickoff	2 PM Game	3 PM Game	4 PM Game	5 PM After
Sky	Sunny	Sunny	Sunny	Sunny	Sunny	Sunny
Temp	62°	64°	65°	66°	66°	65°
Feels like	62°	64°	65°	66°	66°	65°
Rain / snow	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Wind mph	1 ENE	2 SE	2 SSE	2 SSE	2 SSE	2 SSE
Gusts mph	3	5	5	5	5	5
Humidity	48%	43%	41%	38%	40%	41%

Every game’s weather →

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GAME OVERVIEW::

The Bengals have one of the cleanest injury reports you will see this late into the season. WR Andre Iosivas remains on injured reserve, but the team’s Week 6 bye clearly did them favors in the health department.
QB Lamar Jackson returned to limited practices through Thursday, keeping a potential return from a two-game absence open. The biggest absence Thursday for the Ravens was S Jaylinn Hawkins, who went limited-DNP.
Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but the Bengals are struggling through inefficiencies on the ground that are almost entirely a product of a predictable offense.
This is one of the more meaningful games on the Week 7 main slate, at least as it pertains to standings in the division.

HOW CINCINNATI WILL TRY TO WIN::

The Bengals have had a rather uninspiring season through their first five games despite their 3-2 record. They played the reeling Buccaneers to a one-score game in Week 1, beat the Texans 20-6 in Week 2, lost to the Steelers and Jaguars in consecutive weeks, and then beat the reeling Dolphins in a one-score game in Week 5 before their bye. They currently find themselves in last place in one of only two divisions where all four teams are above .500 (NFC North) for a game that will give momentum to the winner. As we’ve continued to hit with this team, Zac Taylor’s Bengals are more reactive than just about any team in the league, typically playing to their opponent as evidenced by four of five games being decided by one score. Inefficiencies on the ground persist as the Bengals went from averaging the fourth fewest rush yards per game in 2025 to fifth fewest to start the 2026 season, leading to the team averaging the eighth most pass attempts per game at 37.8. That’s right in line with where they were at in 2025 (37.6), with them also near the 62.2 plays per game they averaged a season ago (62.4 in 2026). It’s effectively wash, rinse, repeat in 2026 for a team continuing to lurch through the same core in what feels like the fifth straight Super Bowl or bust season.

The Bengals continue to tinker with under-center play but are going about it the wrong way, telegraphing the run when under center through poor play sequencing. The goal of going under center more was to get Chase Brown more explosive runs and be able to leverage those via play action, two things that have not transpired due to the predictable nature of those plays. Those issues went so far as prompting offensive coordinator Dan Pitcher to say the team will “continually assess how that touch share between Perine and Brown should play out.” I have an idea, maybe just don’t tell your opponent what you’re doing with your situational tendencies, alignments, and personnel groupings. I don’t know, just a thought. Either way, there is both outside and inside pressure on Brown and the Cincinnati staff regarding their ineffective run game. They now get a Ravens team ranked ninth in defensive ARBY and 10th in yards allowed per carry, making this a spot unlikely to return run game efficiency or explosive runs. Furthermore, Brown’s once-heavy opportunity share took a significant hit against the Dolphins, of all teams, falling from a true workhorse role to a near-even timeshare with a 51.5 percent opportunity share.

Even with the decrease in run game emphasis, Brown continued to remain in a route at a high frequency before the team’s bye, notching an elite 60.6 percent route participation against the Dolphins. That still only led to four targets in a pass offense dominated by its top two options in Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. In fact, the only game that Brown has seen more than six targets was the Week 4 game against the Jaguars where the team played from behind throughout and Chase left early with injury after just 15 offensive snaps. While Dohnte Meyers continues to operate as the WR3, his snap rate in Week 4 was heavily influenced by positive game script, leading to a lowly 30.3 percent route participation as the team transitioned to heavier rates of 12-personnel. Attacking this aerial offense is quite simple – Chase has the upside in the right game environment to put the slate out of reach, Higgins has multi-touchdown upside, and both are best played along with their quarterback.

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Behind The Matchup

Hilow is building his read around Lamar Jackson’s ankle and what it means for Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers, and the entire game environment. Sign up free to see it.

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DFS+ INTERPRETATION::

DFS+ interpretations are fully live by Friday.

Added Oct 23, 2026 · 10:33 AM ET

Inner Circle Members Only

The Interpretation Matters

Hilow builds toward a DFS+ interpretation that reframes how the slate should be attacked. The edge lives in the breakdown most will skip.

Read The Interpretation

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 25th 1:00pm Eastern

Giants (
16) at
Texans (
26.5)

Over/Under 42.5

Published Oct 22, 2026 · 7:20 PM ET

By HilowBioHide

ABOUT THE WRITER

Hilow is a tournament champion and game-theory specialist focused on mid- and high-stakes single-entry and three-max play. In the NFL Edge he maps how each team will try to win and where the clearest DFS leverage sits.

Go deeper: The Theory of Roster Construction

IC LiteMinimizeShow

IC LITE – NFL EDGE ::

GAME SETUP ::

Giants injuries – Both OTs, plus Edmunds, Holland, and Newsome missed Wednesday practice.
Texans injuries – David Montgomery unlikely to play; Schultz, Pitre, and Blankenship also absent Wednesday.

GIANTS PATH ::

J.J. McCarthy – Younger Jameis Winston with more arm strength and similar hero-throw and turnover-worthy profiles, a ceiling-boosting plus for DFS.

TEXANS PATH ::

Woody Marks – Operated as a true workhorse in Week 6 with 72% of backfield opportunities on a 78% snap rate, and this is the softest run matchup Houston will face all season against a Giants defense allowing the fourth most yards per carry at 4.81.
Nico Collins – One of the most dangerous receivers beyond 10 yards with elite physical traits; MHJ’s arrival should help scheme him open.

LIKELIEST GAME FLOW ::

Texans build a lead – Houston’s defense should control the game flow, and if they capitalize early, Marks and the New York pass game both rise in value.
Upside path is straightforward – The players that get Houston ahead, the player they lean on with a lead, and concentrated Giants aerial offense.

Injury report 7 injured ShowHide Dell (HOU) IR · Montgomery (HOU) Doubtful · Jones (NYG) limited · +4 more

How this works

DNP Did not practice L Limited F Full

Status is the team’s call for the game, set on the final report (usually Friday). Until then it reads “No status yet”. A dash means no report that day.

Built from stats and data. It’s a research tool: use it to inform your decisions, not to make them blindly.

New York Giants

Player	Injury	Wed	Thu	Status
WRCharlie JonesAchilles	Achilles	L	L	No status yet
TEChris ManhertzCalf	Calf	–	DNP	No status yet
TETheo JohnsonNeck	Neck	L	L	No status yet

Houston Texans

Player	Injury	Wed	Thu	Status
RBDavid MontgomeryGroin	Groin	DNP	DNP	Doubtful
WRTank DellKnee	Knee	F	F	On IR
TEBrevin JordanFoot	Foot	–	L	No status yet
TEDalton SchultzQuadricep	Quadricep	DNP	L	No status yet

Every team’s injury report →

Retractable roof Game-day weather Retractable roof — usually closed when the weather is bad. Hour by hourHide

NRG Stadium, Houston, TX · updated Fri 10:30 AM ET

How this works

Hour-by-hour forecasts from the National Weather Service (MET Norway abroad), refreshed every hour.
Only the hours of the game count. The hour before kickoff and the hour after are there for context.
The picture by each game is its weather during the game: snow, rain or wind when they reach the Low line, else the sky most of the game.
A game’s level is the highest any one reading reaches. When Hilow or Mike leave a DFS note, their level is the one shown.
“Feels like” includes wind chill and humidity. Times are Eastern. Retractable roofs show the outdoor forecast.

Built from stats and data. It’s a research tool: use it to inform your decisions, not to make them blindly.

Reading	12 PM Before	1 PM Kickoff	2 PM Game	3 PM Game	4 PM Game	5 PM After
Sky	Partly cloudy	Partly cloudy	Partly cloudy	Partly cloudy	Partly cloudy	Partly cloudy
Temp	77°	79°	80°	82°	82°	81°
Feels like	77°	79°	80°	81°	81°	80°
Rain / snow	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Wind mph	9 E	10 E	10 E	10 E	10 E	10 E
Gusts mph	15	16	17	18	18	17
Humidity	47%	41%	36%	32%	32%	32%

Every game’s weather →

Game toolsShowHideProjections, matchups, stacks, props and stats for NYG and HOU only

ProjectionsMatchupsStacksChecking the BoxesLeverage & PivotsStat FinderEPA EdgeProps

Every tool from the Toolkit, cut down to the two teams in this game. Free with an OWS account.

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GAME OVERVIEW::

The Giants have some fairly significant injuries this week, most notably both LT Andrew Thomas and RT Jermaine Eluemunor did not practice Wednesday, nor did LB Tremaine Edmunds, S Jevon Holland, and CB Greg Newsome.
RB David Montgomery and TE Dalton Schultz did not practice Wednesday, with Montgomery reportedly unlikely to play. They could also have issues on the back end with both CB Jalen Pitre and S Reed Blankenship absent on Wednesday.
J.J. McCarthy enters the starting lineup for the Giants after taking over for Jameis Winston in the second half of their Week 6 loss to the Saints. This was a head-scratching acquisition, to me, considering he is effectively a younger version of Jameis Winston with better arm strength. That’s not necessarily a bad thing for us in DFS. Quite the contrary, I view it as a significant ceiling-boosting plus.
Woody Marks and Nico Collins stand out on paper in any game environment, while Marks and the New York pass game have paths to elite ceiling if things play out just right.

HOW NEW YORK GIANTS WILL TRY TO WIN::

There are some uncertainties regarding how the Giants will try to win considering the change from Jameis Winston to J.J. McCarthy under center, or is there? If looking purely at hero throw rate versus turnover-worthy throws in the previous three seasons, the two profile similarly in that they will both put the ball in harm’s way but will also make some spectacular throws. That is part of the reason why I was so confused by the acquisition of McCarthy – the Giants effectively traded for a younger Winston. We saw both ends of the spectrum from McCarthy against the Saints, who made some incredible downfield throws but also made multiple mistakes, one of which resulted in an easy interception that was thrown well behind the intended receiver and directly to a waiting defender. He hit him right in the chest for the easiest INT he’ll have during his career. While it is remarkable that McCarthy managed 243 yards in just over 12 minutes on the game clock, we also must keep in mind that 49 of those yards were resultant of a pass that literally bounced off the defender’s chest and into the arms of Charlie Jones and McCarthy had another throw that was initially ruled an interception that was overturned upon further review. That’s at least three turnover-worthy throws on 21 pass attempts, which, like we said earlier, is just a younger version of Jameis Winston with greater arm strength. That was a long way to get to the conclusion that I don’t think John Harbaugh and Matt Gay are going to run the offense materially different than what we grew accustomed to with Winston under center, likely taking a more reserved approach until otherwise forced. Considering how well the Texans have played in their previous two games, I would call it likely that we see the “oh shit” mode from the Giants at some point here.

There are also some significant uncertainties in the backfield after Najee Harris was straight up released following being outspoken about his role and Cam Skattebo was straight up benched following ball security issues. That left Tyrone Tracy Jr. with a 50 percent opportunity share in Week 6 with the team playing from behind, while Devin Singletary operated as the primary change of pace option. With Harris no longer in town, I would expect Skattebo to regain the lead role, likely shifting Tracy into the chance of pace role. Or we could just see Tracy continue forward as the lead back, I legitimately have no clue. But that’s kind of the point, this backfield has a wide range of outcomes as far as touches and snaps are concerned, and that’s before we even talk about the matchup. Speaking of, the Texans rank second in defensive ARBY and fifth in yards allowed per carry at 3.58, neither of which instills any level of confidence for the Giants’ backfield. But again, I expect the Giants to begin the game with a more reserved offensive game plan, only turning up the aggression if forced to (spoiler alert, they’re probably going to be forced to).

The duo of Malik Nabers and Isaiah Likely have now combined to account for 56.3 percent of the available targets in the offense through six weeks, and 876 receiving yards, of 1,373 total pass yards. That’s almost 64 percent of the team’s total receiving yards, making this one of the most concentrated aerial offenses in the league. Both are more than GPP-viable if the game environment cooperates. In other words, Nabers and Likely require the Giants to fall behind for Nagy to increase the aerial aggression and are best utilized in rosters that tell that story. Behind the top two, rookie Malachi Fields and veteran Darnell Mooney are the players both on the field and in a route, although Mooney’s neck injury paved the way for Charlie Jones to see increased run against the Saints. Mooney began the week with a full practice, so he should be good to go for a normal workload. There is no doubting the GPP upside of McCarthy with both Nabers and Likely, and I will likely have significant interest in this approach heading into the weekend.

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DFS+ INTERPRETATION::

DFS+ interpretations are fully live by Friday.

Added Oct 22, 2026 · 7:20 PM ET

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The Interpretation Matters

Hilow has mapped out the DFS angles that separate this slate from the obvious plays, where the real leverage sits might surprise you.

Read The Interpretation

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 25th 4:05pm Eastern

Broncos (
23.5) at
Cards (
19.5)

Over/Under 43.0

Published Oct 23, 2026 · 1:42 AM ET

By MJohnsonBioHide

ABOUT THE WRITER

Mike Johnson has earned more than $500,000 in DFS profit across a wide range of tournament formats. He combines his background in coaching and finance with years of tournament experience to identify market inefficiencies in every matchup.

Go deeper: Building A Sharper Player Pool

IC LiteMinimizeShow

IC LITE – NFL EDGE ::

GAME SETUP ::

Denver’s defense carries a 4-2 team despite some of the worst QB play in the league.
Arizona prefers ball control and field goals when holding a lead, as they showed against the Rams.

DENVER PATH ::

Bo Nix has the lowest average depth of target among qualifying QBs and gained only 33 yards over his last nine possessions against Seattle.
Jaylen Waddle has been getting open frequently, but Nix’s refusal to throw intermediate or deep has held him to 35 yards or less in five of six games.

ARIZONA PATH ::

Jacoby Brissett has led one of the league’s highest pass-rate offenses since taking over, partly because Arizona has constantly played from behind.
Jeremiyah Love is likely to miss this game again, leaving Allgeier and Knight to split the backfield work.

LIKELIEST GAME FLOW ::

Punt fest is the most likely outcome as Denver’s defense dominates Arizona’s offense and Denver’s offense dominates Denver’s offense.
Arizona won’t force the issue against a tough pass rush and elite secondary, content to win ugly with field goals again.

Injury report 5 injured ShowHide Coleman (DEN) IR · Badie (DEN) DNP · Waddle (DEN) limited · +2 more

How this works

DNP Did not practice L Limited F Full

Status is the team’s call for the game, set on the final report (usually Friday). Until then it reads “No status yet”. A dash means no report that day.

Built from stats and data. It’s a research tool: use it to inform your decisions, not to make them blindly.

Denver Broncos

Player	Injury	Wed	Thu	Status
RBJonah ColemanAnkle	Ankle	F	F	On IR
RBTyler BadieThumb	Thumb	DNP	DNP	No status yet
WRJaylen WaddleChest	Chest	L	L	No status yet

Arizona Cardinals

Player	Injury	Wed	Thu	Fri	Status
QBCarson BeckBack	Back	L	DNP		No status yet
RBJeremiyah LoveAnkle	Ankle	DNP	DNP		No status yet

Every team’s injury report →

Retractable roof Game-day weather Retractable roof — usually closed when the weather is bad. Hour by hourHide

State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ · updated Fri 10:30 AM ET

How this works

Hour-by-hour forecasts from the National Weather Service (MET Norway abroad), refreshed every hour.
Only the hours of the game count. The hour before kickoff and the hour after are there for context.
The picture by each game is its weather during the game: snow, rain or wind when they reach the Low line, else the sky most of the game.
A game’s level is the highest any one reading reaches. When Hilow or Mike leave a DFS note, their level is the one shown.
“Feels like” includes wind chill and humidity. Times are Eastern. Retractable roofs show the outdoor forecast.

Built from stats and data. It’s a research tool: use it to inform your decisions, not to make them blindly.

Reading	3 PM Before	4 PM Kickoff	5 PM Game	6 PM Game	7 PM Game	8 PM After
Sky	Sunny	Sunny	Sunny	Sunny	Sunny	Sunny
Temp	75°	77°	78°	79°	79°	79°
Feels like	75°	77°	78°	79°	79°	79°
Rain / snow	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Wind mph	3 ENE	2 NNE	2 N	2 N	3 N	3 NNW
Gusts mph	7	7	7	7	6	6
Humidity	40%	37%	35%	34%	34%	34%

Every game’s weather →

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GAME OVERVIEW ::

Bo Nix continues to struggle in his third season as he has been hesitant to run and unwilling to take chances down the field in his return from last season’s ankle injury.
Arizona is coming off their biggest win of the season over the Rams and showed that they prefer to play a ball control and time of possession game when they are able to.
The Denver defense has been elite, leading the Broncos to a 4-2 record despite the offense’s massive shortcomings.
Jaylen Waddle has 35 receiving yards or less in five of six games as Denver struggles to get the most out of their offseason acquisition.
Arizona rookie running back Jeremiyah Love is likely to miss this game once again, with Tyler Allgeier and Bam Knight likely to split the backfield work.

HOW DENVER WILL TRY TO WIN::

Denver is winning games the ugly way, with defense that makes it difficult to watch their opponents play and offense that also makes games difficult to watch. Denver’s two losses this season both came on the road, but they were against two of the league’s only remaining unbeaten teams in the 49ers and Chiefs. Those two teams and the Rams scored over 20 points against Denver. In their other three games, Denver held their opponents to 14, 17, and 13 points.

Denver’s defensive dominance has helped them overcome some of the worst QB play in the league. Quarterback Bo Nix is not the same player he was last year as he is running far less than he did prior to his broken ankle and he has the lowest average depth of target among qualifying NFL quarterbacks. The critiques of Nix reached a fever pitch after last week’s primetime win over the Seahawks as Denver gained only 33 total yards over their last NINE possessions. Yes, you read that correctly. Denver took a 14-3 lead in the second quarter and had nine more possessions after that, resulting in 33 total yards. Those possessions ended in seven punts and a field goal. Fun stuff.

Denver looks like they will get rookie running back Jonah Coleman back from injured reserve this week as he has been practicing in full. Coleman has played the best of any Broncos RB when on the field, but isn’t going to walk into a featured role. This means that Coleman, J.K. Dobbins, and RJ Harvey will all be involved. Denver also has three tight ends playing over 30% of the snaps, with none playing over 60%. Evan Engram is the primary pass catcher among that group, but none carry much value. The wide receivers also spread things around. Jaylen Waddle is supposed to be the alpha here and he has actually been playing very well and getting open frequently, but the unwillingness of Nix to cut the ball loose in the intermediate or downfield areas have crushed his effectiveness. Waddle has surpassed 35 receiving yards only once all season, while Courtland Sutton is on the field nearly every snap but has not done much. Troy Franklin and Marvin Mims Jr. are also both involved. Arizona’s defense can be had through big plays, but in order to take advantage of that the Broncos will need to take some chances which they have not been willing to do. When teams are unable to generate explosive plays, like the Rams last week, the Cardinals defense is actually quite formidable. Despite the fact that cumulative numbers for Arizona look like they are a pushover defensively, the Broncos will need to do more than just show up to keep this from being another ugly defensive battle.

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Ugly But Exploitable

Mike Johnson sees a potential punt fest between Denver and Arizona, but the McBride target volume and backfield split create specific edges worth building around. Sign up free.

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DFS+ Interpretations::

DFS+ interpretations are fully live by Friday.

Added Oct 23, 2026 · 1:42 AM ET

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The Cheap Quarterback Play

Mike Johnson is building around Bo Nix at $5K and a specific correlation with Waddle that reshapes how the rest of this roster construction unfolds.

Open The Roster Build

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 25th 4:25pm Eastern

Packers (
25) at
Lions (
28.5)

Over/Under 53.5

Published Oct 23, 2026 · 1:10 AM ET

By MJohnsonBioHide

ABOUT THE WRITER

Mike Johnson has earned more than $500,000 in DFS profit across a wide range of tournament formats. He combines his background in coaching and finance with years of tournament experience to identify market inefficiencies in every matchup.

Go deeper: Building A Sharper Player Pool

IC LiteMinimizeShow

IC LITE – NFL EDGE ::

GAME SETUP ::

Dome environment screams yards and points, with every Lions game hitting 55+ total points this season.
Both defenses are aggressive but not elite, and both sides know they must accumulate points against explosive opponents.

GREEN BAY PATH ::

Josh Jacobs returns from six-game absence but likely starts around 60-70% backfield usage, not a full workhorse role yet.
Christian Watson has six touchdowns through six games with multiple 30+ point games; he and Golden combine for 47% target share and 73.5% air yards share.

DETROIT PATH ::

Jahmyr Gibbs has the best RB role in football and is elite as a pass catcher, with Detroit shifting to 10th in PROE after losing David Montgomery.
Amon-Ra St. Brown had modest production the last three weeks before the bye; this matchup and game environment should get him back on track.

LIKELIEST GAME FLOW ::

High-scoring shootout is the most likely outcome, with downfield passing from both sides and neither defense capable of slowing things down.
Point accumulation mindset from both coaching staffs, with enough explosive players and strong play calling to overcome any obstacles.

Injury report 8 injured ShowHide Musgrave (GB) Out · Moore (GB) IR · Kennedy (DET) IR · +5 more

How this works

DNP Did not practice L Limited F Full

Status is the team’s call for the game, set on the final report (usually Friday). Until then it reads “No status yet”. A dash means no report that day.

Built from stats and data. It’s a research tool: use it to inform your decisions, not to make them blindly.

Green Bay Packers

Player	Injury	Wed	Thu	Status
QBJordan LoveBack	Back	L	F	No status yet
WRBo MeltonBack	Back	DNP	DNP	No status yet
WRChristian WatsonAnkle	Ankle	L	L	No status yet
WRMatthew GoldenShoulder	Shoulder	L	L	No status yet
WRSavion WilliamsAnkle	Ankle	L	L	No status yet

Also out, not on the practice report: Luke Musgrave TE OutSkyy Moore WR IR

Detroit Lions

No injured fantasy players.

Also out, not on the practice report: Tom Kennedy WR IR

Every team’s injury report →

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GAME OVERVIEW ::

Green Bay running back Josh Jacobs is set to return from his six-game absence and fill a gaping hole in the Packers offense, although it remains to be seen how quickly his role will approach workhorse status.
The Packers passing game has been very concentrated among wide receivers Matthew Golden and Christian Watson, although tight end Tucker Kraft and slot receiver Savion Williams are starting to make things more interesting.
Jahmyr Gibbs has had by far the league’s best role this season among running backs and is in a prime spot to smash once again coming off his bye week.
Jared Goff and the passing game’s home/road splits have been massive in recent seasons and they get a strong matchup against a Packers team that is beatable through the air.

HOW GREEN BAY WILL TRY TO WIN::

Green Bay’s offense has evolved in 2026 in exactly the way we hoped they would, as they have shifted to a much more pass centric offense and have significantly improved and condensed their personnel usage. Gone are the days of a five receiver rotation and methodical run-heavy play calling. This year the Packers rank 5th in the NFL in pass rate over expectation (PROE) and have a middle of the pack tempo after milking the play clock in past seasons and ranking near the bottom of the league in PROE.

Green Bay’s running game has been non-existent this season, but gets a spark this week with the return of RB Josh Jacobs from his six-game off-field suspension. Jacobs is reportedly healthy and in shape, but it seems unlikely he would immediately take on a workhorse role in this spot. Expecting around 60-70% of the team’s backfield usage in his debut would make sense, with MarShawn Lloyd and Pierre Strong Jr. mixing in for the remainder. The Lions run defense has been solid this season while they have been torched through the air. Green Bay’s offensive line has struggled with run blocking as well, so it isn’t like the return of Jacobs changes that issue. But he is a huge upgrade on what they have had, so what he really does is makes them less one-dimensional and in turn much harder to stop.

The Lions are allowing opponents to throw the ball all over the yard, giving up 297 passing yards per game through five weeks. They will be getting back DB Brian Branch this week, but similar to Jacobs it is tough to imagine him being fully himself and changing the defense immediately. Detroit has been especially susceptible to tight ends, allowing over 30 fantasy points per game to opposing tight end rooms. This sets up very well for Packers TE Tucker Kraft to finally break through for a big game as he has been heavily involved, but not gone over 65 receiving yards to date. Packers receivers Christian Watson and Matthew Golden have combined for a 47% target share and a MASSIVE 73.5% air yards share so far this season. The Lions made a huge shift in defensive approach in Week 5 as they had previously been playing man coverage at close to the highest rate in the league, but downshifted from 45% man coverage in the first four games to only 14.7% man coverage against the Cardinals. After getting torched the first month of the season, this change in approach could be sticky and indicate a change from embattled defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard.

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Inside The Shootout

Mike Johnson is building toward a specific game-flow thesis for Lions-Packers, connecting Gibbs’s expanded role and ARSB’s bounce-back spot to a pointed fantasy read. Sign up free.

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DFS+ Interpretations::

DFS+ interpretations are fully live by Friday.

Added Oct 23, 2026 · 1:10 AM ET

Inner Circle Members Only

Stack The Right Side

Mike Johnson is building around a trio of Packers pass-catchers with a combined target share that reshapes the slate, and a Savion Williams wrinkle that could change everything.

Open Johnson’s Builds

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 25th 4:25pm Eastern

Rams (
26) at
Raiders (
22.5)

Over/Under 48.5

Published Oct 23, 2026 · 12:14 AM ET

By MJohnsonBioHide

ABOUT THE WRITER

Mike Johnson has earned more than $500,000 in DFS profit across a wide range of tournament formats. He combines his background in coaching and finance with years of tournament experience to identify market inefficiencies in every matchup.

Go deeper: Building A Sharper Player Pool

IC LiteMinimizeShow

IC LITE – NFL EDGE ::

GAME SETUP ::

Both run defenses rank 26th and 28th in rushing yards allowed, pointing toward a ground-heavy, clock-burning game.
Rams injuries are severe: Adams out 6-10 weeks, Puka left Thursday practice with a calf issue, McDuffie and Landman likely out.

LOS ANGELES PATH ::

Kyren Williams leads the backfield against a Raiders front that has been pushed around all season.

LAS VEGAS PATH ::

Ashton Jeanty and Mike Washington Jr. keep getting volume despite 3.0 yards per carry; the Rams have allowed 152.7 rush yards per game lately.
Brock Bowers operates as a receiver from the slot or out wide; the Rams lack a physical matchup for him.

LIKELIEST GAME FLOW ::

Extended drives and a moving clock are expected, with backfields busy and passing games funneled through four tight ends and Puka.
Red zone execution will decide the game; the Raiders allow opponents to score on 73% of red zone possessions.

Injury report 7 injured ShowHide Ferguson (LAR) IR · Adams (LAR) IR · Thornton (LV) IR · +4 more

How this works

DNP Did not practice L Limited F Full

Status is the team’s call for the game, set on the final report (usually Friday). Until then it reads “No status yet”. A dash means no report that day.

Built from stats and data. It’s a research tool: use it to inform your decisions, not to make them blindly.

Los Angeles Rams

Player	Injury	Wed	Thu	Fri	Status
WRPuka NacuaCalf	Calf	–	L		No status yet

Also out, not on the practice report: Terrance Ferguson TE IRDavante Adams WR IR

Las Vegas Raiders

Player	Injury	Wed	Thu	Status
RBMike Washington Jr.Foot, Back	Foot, Back	L	DNP	No status yet
WRDont'e Thornton Jr.Hamstring	Hamstring	F	F	On IR
TEBrock BowersHamstring, Calf	Hamstring, Calf	L	F	No status yet
TECarter RunyonFoot	Foot	F	F	On IR

Every team’s injury report →

Indoors Game-day weather Indoors — weather won't matter.

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GAME OVERVIEW ::

The Rams offense has been decimated with injuries, losing WR Davante Adams and TE Terrance Ferguson for extended periods. Star receiver Puka Nacua also left practice early on Thursday with a calf injury, leaving his status in doubt.
Kyren Williams continues to lead the Rams backfield and they have an elite matchup this week with a porous Raiders run defense.
Tight ends Tyler Higbee and Colby Parkinson expect to be very busy in this matchup as Las Vegas has given up significant production to the position.
The Rams defense will likely be without CB Trent McDuffie and LB Nate Landman, creating massive issues for Los Angeles against both the run and the pass.
These defenses rank 26th and 28th in rushing yards allowed per game, which could have an effect on the play calling and pace of both teams and the overall game environment.
Raiders head coach Klint Kubiak was previously the offensive coordinator for the Seahawks, making him no stranger to this matchup.

HOW LOS ANGELES WILL TRY TO WIN::

Los Angeles enters Week 7 with their season on the brink after a catastrophic loss to Arizona in Week 6 that dropped them to 2-4. The Rams “Super Team” has been decimated with injuries on both sides of the ball and is struggling to figure things out on the go. Division rival San Francisco has a 6-0 record, which leaves Los Angeles just trying to get healthy and find some victories to get themselves into the playoffs. They are playing without star DE Myles Garrett, who is still on IR, and are also likely to be without star CB Trent McDuffie and the heart of their defense in LB Nate Landman in this game, as both have not yet practiced this week. These defensive injuries have mounted and the Rams defense has struggled to get off the field the last two games, which crushed them in Week 6 as their play volume was sapped and they were never able to establish any offensive rhythm.

The Rams offense is in a bit of disarray as they will be without veteran WR Davante Adams for six to 10 weeks and have been playing without versatile second year tight end Terrance Ferguson for a few weeks already. These absences alter the makeup of this offense significantly. The focus of this offense will be heavily on WR Puka Nacua, whose role will continue to be at the forefront of what Los Angeles does. The backfield will also be a heavy focus in this matchup against a Raiders defensive front that has been pushed around by everyone this season. Kyren Williams will lead the team and is the most trusted option, while Blake Corum mixes in and has been gaining efficiency the last couple of weeks. Losing Adams will put a greater focus on this backfield and the matchup dictates that the Rams should be focused first and foremost on punishing the Raiders on the ground. Puka’s route tree may grow without Adams on the field, but in general the team’s primary focus will be getting the ball to Puka in the short to intermediate areas to let him do Puka things after the catch and feeding their running backs.

When the Rams aren’t getting the ball to their backs and Puka, the next options will be tight ends Tyler Higbee and Colby Parkinson along with speedy WR Konata Mumpfield. Mumpfield was third in snaps behind Nacua and Adams last week and made some big plays against Denver while Puka was out. The tight ends will benefit from the attention Puka draws and should have ample chances in the short to intermediate areas of the field against a Raiders team that ranks 26th in blitz rate but second in QB pressure rate. Mumpfield will run a lot of vertical routes to clear out the underneath areas for Puka and the others, although Los Angeles will probably send a couple of deep shots his way. All of this is somewhat up in the air as of Thursday evening after Puka Nacua left practice early with a calf injury. If that injury ends up causing Puka to miss or be limited, the Rams will likely scale back significantly from their to-date 70% pass rate and take a more conservative approach with an even heavier emphasis on running the ball.

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DFS+ Interpretations::

DFS+ interpretations are fully live by Friday.

Added Oct 23, 2026 · 12:14 AM ET

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The Stack That Opens It

Mike Johnson is building around sub-$10k Rams stacks, but his Kyren and Corum usage hinges on a specific RB pairing logic that reshapes the entire slate.

Open The Build Logic

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 25th 8:20pm Eastern

Chiefs (
20) at
Hawks (
22.5)

Over/Under 42.5

Injury report 8 injured ShowHide Thornton (KC) IR · Arroyo (SEA) IR · Price (SEA) IR · +5 more

How this works

DNP Did not practice L Limited F Full

Status is the team's call for the game, set on the final report (usually Friday). Until then it reads "No status yet". A dash means no report that day.

Built from stats and data. It’s a research tool: use it to inform your decisions, not to make them blindly.

Kansas City Chiefs

Player	Injury	Wed	Thu	Status
RBBrashard SmithHamstring	Hamstring	–	L	No status yet
WRRashee RiceHamstring, Knee	Hamstring, Knee	DNP	DNP	No status yet
TETravis KelceAnkle	Ankle	L	L	No status yet

Also out, not on the practice report: Tyquan Thornton WR IR

Seattle Seahawks

Player	Injury	Wed	Thu	Fri	Status
QBDrew LockElbow	Elbow	L	L		No status yet
WRRashid ShaheedHip	Hip	L	F		No status yet

Also out, not on the practice report: Elijah Arroyo TE IRJadarian Price RB IR

Every team's injury report →

Rain (50%) Game-day weather Weather: Low 50% chance of rain all game. Hour by hourHide

Lumen Field, Seattle, WA · updated Fri 10:30 AM ET

How this works

Hour-by-hour forecasts from the National Weather Service (MET Norway abroad), refreshed every hour.
Only the hours of the game count. The hour before kickoff and the hour after are there for context.
The picture by each game is its weather during the game: snow, rain or wind when they reach the Low line, else the sky most of the game.
A game's level is the highest any one reading reaches. When Hilow or Mike leave a DFS note, their level is the one shown.
"Feels like" includes wind chill and humidity. Times are Eastern. Retractable roofs show the outdoor forecast.

Built from stats and data. It’s a research tool: use it to inform your decisions, not to make them blindly.

Reading	7 PM Before	8 PM Kickoff	9 PM Game	10 PM Game	11 PM Game	12 AM After
Sky	Rain	Rain	Rain	Rain	Rain	Rain
Temp	56°	55°	54°	52°	51°	50°
Feels like	56°	55°	54°	52°	51°	48°
Rain / snow	37%	50%	50%	50%	50%	50%
Wind mph	2 NNW	3 N	3 N	3 N	5 NE	5 NE
Gusts mph	5	3	3	3	6	6
Humidity	77%	78%	80%	82%	84%	86%

Every game's weather →

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Check back Thursday for the full game-by-game breakdown in the NFL Edge!

Kickoff Monday, Oct 26th 8:15pm Eastern

Cowboys (
24) at
Eagles (
20)

Over/Under 44.0

Injury report 9 injured ShowHide Stowers (PHI) IR · Calcaterra (PHI) IR · Hurts (PHI) IR · +6 more

How this works

DNP Did not practice L Limited F Full

Status is the team's call for the game, set on the final report (usually Friday). Until then it reads "No status yet". A dash means no report that day.

Built from stats and data. It’s a research tool: use it to inform your decisions, not to make them blindly.

Dallas Cowboys

Player	Injury	Thu	Fri	Sat	Status
WRGeorge PickensShoulder	Shoulder	L			No status yet
WRKaVontae TurpinRibs	Ribs	DNP			No status yet

Philadelphia Eagles

Player	Injury	Thu	Status
RBSaquon BarkleyHamstring	Hamstring	L	No status yet
WRDeVonta SmithHamstring	Hamstring	DNP	No status yet
WRDontayvion WicksAnkle	Ankle	DNP	No status yet
TEDallas GoedertKnee	Knee	DNP	No status yet
TEEli StowersQuadricep	Quadricep	F	On IR
TEGrant CalcaterraBack	Back	F	On IR

Also out, not on the practice report: Jalen Hurts QB IR

Every team's injury report →

Clear Game-day weather Clear, dry, 54–59°, wind 2 mph Hour by hourHide

Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA · updated Fri 10:30 AM ET

How this works

Hour-by-hour forecasts from the National Weather Service (MET Norway abroad), refreshed every hour.
Only the hours of the game count. The hour before kickoff and the hour after are there for context.
The picture by each game is its weather during the game: snow, rain or wind when they reach the Low line, else the sky most of the game.
A game's level is the highest any one reading reaches. When Hilow or Mike leave a DFS note, their level is the one shown.
"Feels like" includes wind chill and humidity. Times are Eastern. Retractable roofs show the outdoor forecast.

Built from stats and data. It’s a research tool: use it to inform your decisions, not to make them blindly.

Reading	7 PM Before	8 PM Kickoff	9 PM Game	10 PM Game	11 PM Game	12 AM After
Sky	Partly cloudy	Clear	Clear	Clear	Clear	Clear
Temp	61°	59°	57°	55°	54°	53°
Feels like	61°	59°	57°	55°	54°	53°
Rain / snow	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Wind mph	7 WNW	2 WNW	2 WNW	2 NW	2 NW	2 NW
Gusts mph	14	5	3	3	3	3
Humidity	58%	67%	72%	80%	83%	86%

Every game's weather →

Game toolsShowHideProjections, matchups, stacks, props and stats for DAL and PHI only

ProjectionsMatchupsStacksChecking the BoxesLeverage & PivotsStat FinderEPA EdgeProps

Every tool from the Toolkit, cut down to the two teams in this game. Free with an OWS account.

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Check back Thursday for the full game-by-game breakdown in the NFL Edge!

IC LITE – SHOWDOWN ::

GAME SETUP ::

BEARS PIECES ::

PATRIOTS PIECES ::

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See The Showdown Setup

Build The Showdown

IC LITE – SHOWDOWN ::

GAME SETUP ::

PITTSBURGH PIECES ::

NEW ORLEANS PIECES ::

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See The Paris Showdown Setup

Unlock The Captain Plan

IC LITE – NFL EDGE ::

GAME SETUP ::

SAN FRANCISCO PATH ::

ATLANTA PATH ::

LIKELIEST GAME FLOW ::

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GAME OVERVIEW::

HOW SAN FRANCISCO WILL TRY TO WIN::

The Game Flow Question

DFS+ INTERPRETATION::

Read The Interpretation

IC LITE – NFL EDGE ::

GAME SETUP ::

COLTS PATH ::

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GAME OVERVIEW::

HOW INDIANAPOLIS WILL TRY TO WIN::

Finish The Breakdown

DFS+ INTERPRETATION::

The Interpretation Matters

IC LITE – NFL EDGE ::

GAME SETUP ::

MIAMI PATH ::

NEW YORK PATH ::

LIKELIEST GAME FLOW ::

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Game Overview

How Miami Will Try to Win

How This Game Flows

DFS Interpretation

The Mispriced Edge

IC LITE – NFL EDGE ::

GAME SETUP ::

TAMPA BAY PATH ::

CAROLINA PATH ::

LIKELIEST GAME FLOW ::

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GAME OVERVIEW::

HOW TAMPA BAY WILL TRY TO WIN::

Finish The Breakdown

DFS+ INTERPRETATION::

The Interpretation Matters

IC LITE – NFL EDGE ::

GAME SETUP ::

BENGALS PATH ::

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GAME OVERVIEW::

HOW CINCINNATI WILL TRY TO WIN::

Behind The Matchup

DFS+ INTERPRETATION::

The Interpretation Matters

IC LITE – NFL EDGE ::

GAME SETUP ::

GIANTS PATH ::

TEXANS PATH ::

LIKELIEST GAME FLOW ::

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GAME OVERVIEW::

HOW NEW YORK GIANTS WILL TRY TO WIN::

Finish The Breakdown

DFS+ INTERPRETATION::

The Interpretation Matters

IC LITE – NFL EDGE ::

GAME SETUP ::

DENVER PATH ::

ARIZONA PATH ::