Busts come in many shapes and sizes. A highly touted rookie drafted early can be a bust…just ask Josh Rosen. A player who has made incremental improvements and had a great training camp could be considered a bust. A player who just underachieves and falls below their ranking could be considered a bust…although sometimes a bust can be confused with garden variety regression. And that can often depend on the expectation level of the player and his team heading into the season.
This article focuses on NFC West busts. A division rarely produces a bust at the same position for all four teams, but this is the case. All four NFC West QBs will be busted this season…and for different reasons.
Arizona Cardinals-Kyler Murray: As I said, busts can come in many shapes and sizes for different reasons. Murray was the no.1 pick in the 2019 draft, so from day 1 he was supposed to be the guy. It can be argued that his entire career, to this point, has been a bust.
He’s a sub-500 QB in his career, marred with injury. He’s missed 18 games over the past three seasons. His diminutive 5’10 frame doesn’t help matters. And although he’s still only 27 years old, his leg injuries have slowed him down, which hurts his style of play.
He’s never thrown for over 4000 YDs or had 30 TD passes in a season. Management has put a solid team around him, and there are no more excuses this year. He’s back healthy to start the year. And with his newest toy to get the ball to, WR Marvin Harrison Jr., TE Trey McBride and RB James Connor, the offense is stacked.
There has been enough of a sample size for me. Murray can be fun to watch at times and quite exciting. He’s just not that good. He’s listed at the bottom of every top 10 list, or at worst, just outside it. He will not live up to his rankings and will be a bust.
San Fransisco 49ers-Brock Purdy: Murray is on one end of the bust spectrum as a former no.1 pick. Purdy is, on the other, drafted as Mr. Irrelevant. It’s tough to call him a bust, considering where he started as the last pick of the draft, but he will be.
The same thing will befall him, as it has for so many other Super Bowl-losing quarterbacks— ask Jalen Hurts and Jimmy Garoppolo. To begin with, the team just won’t be as dynamic this season. They still have Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel, but they have a disgruntled Brandon Aiyuk, who could be traded at any point.
Their WR3 is Juaun Jennings, along with rookie Rickey Pearsall. And they still have TE George Kittle, entering his age-31 season. To begin with, this supporting cast isn’t as explosive as last season. And there is no way CMC can duplicate the all-world season he had last year. He’ll regress to mere superhuman status.
Again, busts come in many shapes and sizes. Some may quibble, saying what will happen to him and the team this year will be a mere regression. But when a team and its fanbase dream of Superbowl victories that have been so close twice, losing excruciatingly, anything short of that is a bust. The leash will be short for HC Kyle Shanahan because their window is closing.
Seattle Seahawks- Geno Smith: Smith is another quarterback in this division who will be a bust. To begin with, he’s getting old, now entering his age 34 season. He was a bust early on in his career and found a renaissance with Seattle. He had the right coach in Pete Carroll to give him a shot and the ability to bring the best out of him. But Carroll is now gone, and new HC Mike MacDonald has no loyalty to Smith. They brought in veteran QB and Washington castoff Sam Howell as his backup.
He has already shown major regression from 2022 to 2023. He went from 30 TD passes down to only 20 last season. His completion percentage dipped from nearly 70% down to under 65%. And let’s face it, even in 2022, the team was only 9-8. At best, Smith is a .500 QB. He’s 30-36, and his 66 career starts.
Smith’s backup is 10 years old, his junior year is only 24, and the new head coach will have no issue installing Howell if Smith starts slow. With his WRs, there will be no reason to…DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and second-year starter Jaxon Smith-Njigba are in the conversation for best WRs, although Miami and Cincinnati have something to say about that. Even at his best, Smith was never that good. The dropoff that began last season will continue…he will be a bust.
Los Angeles Rams-Matthew Stafford: Similar to Smith, Stafford is long in the tooth. He’s 36 years old and has had some nagging injuries since his Super Bowl victory 2022. Amazingly, he’s entering his 16th NFL season and is in the conversation to be a Hall of Fame QB…although he still has a career record under 500, at only 98-107. He was on some truly awful Detroit Lions teams. His record with the Rams has been 24-17.
For better or worse, the job is his. The Rams didn’t address a succession plan in the offseason, with only Stetson Bennett as his backup. Stafford still has a ton of talent surrounding him; it may be more than he had a few years ago with Puka Nacua in the fold. Cooper Kupp is back healthy and reportedly on a mission to get back to where he was before his injuries. But he is now 31 years old.
When Stafford was out with his injury, there was some chatter that he may retire, so we know he’s on the back nine of his career. And at age 36, he’s realistically on the final few holes. In 15 games last season, he produced a ton of YDs, nearly 4000, but his TD passes were way down, and his completion percentage was only 62.6%. That’s his lowest number since 2014.
This may again be quibbling, with some saying he’s a regression candidate and not a full-blown bust. But when a QB starts to age, they lose a step, negatively affecting their timing. We’ve already begun to see that in Stafford’s completion % last season. He’s not a particularly mobile quarterback, which makes him susceptible to getting hit and injured. I’ll say this: because of Stafford, both Kupp and Nacua will show signs of regression due to Stafford’s season being a bust. The team will have to address the QB position in the offseason…maybe Dak Prescott?
