NFC WEST

written by :: Mike Johnson

ARIZONA CARDINALS

Coaching/Philosophy/Scheme Changes ::

• Offense: Drew Petzing returns for his third season as the Cardinals’ offensive coordinator and has shown steady improvement over his first two seasons with the team, although the offense was maddeningly inconsistent at times last season.
• Defense: Head coach Jonathan Gannon has a defensive background and has turned the Cardinals’ defense around, as they jumped from 32nd in defensive DVOA in 2023 to 14th in 2024.

Personnel Changes ::

• Kyler Murray returns as the Cardinals’ starting QB after playing every game last season for the first time since 2020.
• James Conner had another strong season in 2024 and played 15 games before being injured late in Week 16. Conner turns 30 in May. Second-year RB Trey Benson is next in line and is one of the top backup options in the league.
• Marvin Harrison, Jr. enters his second season as the leader of the Cardinals’ WR room and third-year WR Michael Wilson will start opposite him. Greg Dortch, Zay Jones, and Simi Fehoko enter the summer as the next options on the depth chart.
• Trey McBride is averaging nearly seven receptions per game dating back to the middle of 2023 when he became the Cardinals’ full-time tight end. He had a massive 2024 season and is arguably the centerpiece of the Cardinals’ passing game.

Schedule ::

• Divisional Games (6)::
  • LAR x2, SF x2, SEA x2
• NFC South (4)::
  • @ TB, @ NO, vs. ATL, vs. CAR
• AFC South (4)::
• @ HOU, @ IND, vs. JAX, vs. TEN
• @ CIN, @ DAL, vs. GB

Bull Case ::

The Cardinals have been steadily ascending over their first couple of seasons under Gannon and the “Bull Case” around them is built around the idea that they continue on that trajectory and their young stars come into their own. Murray proved that he is “back” physically after a 2022 knee injury that took him out for much of the 2023 season. He has come a long way as a pocket passer and has multiple high-level targets in McBride and Harrison. Both Harrison and Wilson had relatively disappointing seasons in 2024, but both are young and physically gifted. Arizona’s offense had the second-highest yards per carry in the NFL last season, and as the Arizona passing game grows and matures together, they could take this offense to another level completely.

Murray had a nice season in 2024, but considering his athleticism, you could argue that he left a lot on the table from a rushing perspective. Murray had more than five rushes in only five of 17 games last year but averaged over 7.0 yards per carry. The Cardinals’ rushing offense could also hit even higher heights in 2024 if their offensive line continues to improve and Benson’s explosiveness is used to complement veteran sledgehammer Conner.

All things considered, the Cardinals have the pieces to continue fielding a high-end rushing attack and potentially become one of the most lethal in the league. Meanwhile, their passing game is at a point where we could see them take a huge step forward and make this one of the top offenses in the league. Also working in Arizona’s favor is a favorable schedule which includes matchups with the NFC South and AFC South, both of which have several teams who ranked near the bottom of the league defensively in 2024. The NFC West is a fairly wide open race as we enter 2025, and with the aging 49ers and “in transition” Rams and Seahawks all surrounded by questions, the Cardinals could win their first division title since 2015.

Bear Case ::

The Cardinals’ offense is built primarily around the running game, and their inconsistent offensive outputs on a weekly basis in 2024 had a very high correlation with whether or not they were able to effectively establish a running game. Basically, when teams were able to slow down their ground game, it became very difficult for the Cardinals to move the football and score points. The concerning part of this going forward is the fact that this makes it very straightforward for opponents to know how to defend them. The age of Conner and inability of Benson to stay healthy and contribute as a rookie, along with the unwillingness of Murray to run at a high rate, makes that running game somewhat fragile.

The nature of the Cardinals’ passing attack is also somewhat concerning when thinking about how things could turn for the worse. What the Cardinals’ offense lacks are separators in the passing game, as none of their top three options (McBride, Harrison, Wilson) are especially quick and explosive. All are bigger-bodied players who have a lot of talent, but combining that personnel with the tendencies Arizona showed in 2024 leaves them in a situation where teams can more easily stack the box, bring pressure, and suffocate the offense. One would have hoped Arizona would have done something to address that issue in free agency or the draft, but the Cardinals used six of their seven draft picks on defense and their only offensive selection was an offensive lineman in the sixth round – while also failing to make any notable additions via free agency or trade.

Expectations/Takeaways::

Arizona is a team that I like more from a real life perspective than a fantasy football lens this season. The pieces are all there and the tone for competing was set in Gannon’s first two years as head coach. It would not shock me to see Arizona take the next step and make the playoffs in 2025. Despite that, their four core players (Kyler, Conner, Harrison, McBride) are all priced at roughly their ceiling outcomes which makes them “safe” picks but not necessarily league winners.::

• There is a clear top five at the QB position in early Best Ball drafts and then a big drop-off. Murray is somewhere in the next tier of QBs and if he stays healthy is a very solid bet to end up somewhere in the QB6 to QB10 range. Health is likely the only thing that would keep him out of that range, while his lack of explosive receivers and his small frame keeping him from seeing the goal-line usage of other high-end QBs will keep him from having a top-three-to-top-five QB- season-ceiling that he had earlier in his career. He’s a “fine” pick in the middle rounds, especially if/when he falls well below ADP or completing team stacks – but there is also a case to be made for just waiting at the position and taking players with similar ceilings at a lower draft cost.
• I liked Conner as a mid-seventh-to-early-ninth-round selection in 2024 and he rewarded us with a solid output and stayed healthy through Week 16. In 2025, Conner is going to be 30 and father time is undefeated while Conner’s physical style is going to catch up at some point. This year he is currently a sixth-round pick, which is a little rich for my taste.
• Harrison currently has a third-round ADP, which feels somewhat aggressive after his inconsistent rookie season. He is a player who I like more in DraftKings and Underdog contests than I do on Drafters, as I see him as a player with a very high weekly upside but there are other WRs in the same range whose overall outlook I am more bullish on. I’ll likely target Harrison if he falls to the 3/4 turn or into the fourth round, but I won’t be too aggressive if his ADP stays where it is.
• McBride had a massive 2024 season and outproduced what felt like an aggressive fourth/fifth-round ADP at the time. Now being selected in the second round, McBride is a fine pick that allows you to lock up your tight-end position. I love McBride as a player, but my exposure to him may not reflect that due to his cost and the overall TE landscape, which includes a lot of players in the middle rounds who I think could deliver top-five seasons at the position.

LOS ANGELES RAMS