–The Lions are fully committed to Williams’s success. They didn’t bring in a third receiver when Josh Reynolds left, and if anything, head coach Dan Campbell has talked up Williams in the offseason, saying that he’s going to be even more involved in the offense. Let’s not forget that he’s still relatively new to the league, as he missed much of the early part of his career with an injury he suffered in college. I think in the ninth round, he would be an ideal WR4/5.
–I really liked Montgomery going into last season, but this season, I must drop him down a few rounds mainly because I think so highly of Gibbs. There’s a good chance that Gibbs may end the year as a top-five overall player at the position. If that happens, Montgomery will be more of a short-yardage and goal-line runner, which still gives him value in standard leagues and half-point formats but not nearly as much in PPR leagues.
–I am not buying any hype about AJ Dillon being in the best shape of his career. He’s just not very good as a blocker or in the passing game. Moreover, the Packers have always split carries between their top running backs. I know they brought in Josh Jacobs, but it’s in a very team-friendly contract, and they can get rid of him after one year. Lloyd is a much better receiver than Jacobs. He has an incredible burst and is hard to tackle in the open field. I think he will be involved in this offense, and I want pieces of him, especially this late in the draft. I’m not worried about the hip injury; his talent is too immense.
–This was a tough call, as Reed has good value, especially in games where he’s facing zone defenses. The only reason I have him listed as overvalued is that the Packers brought in Josh Jacobs, drafted Marshawn Lloyd, and have a healthy Christian Watson, but they still have a plethora of other talented receivers who all need to get the football. There’s an upside there, but I also think there could be some significant downside, and he’s not worth the risk.
–I’m not the biggest fan of Williams because I worry about his commitment to being great. It seems like the game has come easily for him, and while at USC, he didn’t perform as well as people expected. There will be a lot of growing pains and, I think, a lot of mistakes from him as he tries to escape from the pocket against big, fast pass rushers. He is slightly undervalued because the Bears are committed to his success and have surrounded him with terrific skill players. He should have 3500 passing yards and 24 TDs, but with the players he has around him, it could be even better than that.
–Swift is completely overrated. He’s been let go by the Lions and Eagles, and now he is with his third team in a short career. Swift doesn’t always hit the hole and fears contact by trying to bounce everything to the outside. That won’t play very well during the cold months in Chicago. I am also not sure that Caleb Williams will dump off the Swift as much as people think. There were many weeks last year when he was so dependent on touchdowns that his numbers were underwhelming if he didn’t get one. Bears OC Shane Waldron recently mentioned that the RB rotation would be game-dependent. Hard pass.
–As of right now, it looks as if Darnold will be the opening-week starter. Rookie quarterback JJ McCarthy still needs a lot of seasoning after not getting as many reps at the University of Michigan. Darnold gets a bad rap, but he’s also played for some horrific coaches. Between the staff on the Jets and the Panthers, he was a mess. It wasn’t until last year, when he was signed by the 49ers that he finally got some good coaching from Kyle Shanahan. Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell is a wizard regarding quarterbacks, as witnessed by how well guys like Josh Dobbs and Nick Mullins played at the end of last season. Darnold is way better than those guys, and if he starts for a full season, he may have 3000 yards and 20+ touchdowns.
–Jones is a solid player who should be involved in the offense, but I saw enough from Ty Chandler last year to make me feel that this will be more of a 50/50 split than Jones being a bell cow. Moreover, if you remember, last year, Jones was out with a hamstring injury for much of the season, and I think the Vikings will need to be careful with him to have him get through a full season healthy.
