“Oh, when the Saints go marching in, oh, when the Saints go marching in, I want to be in that number.”
My Saints team preview, for your consumption and dissection!
Derek Carr is back, and I couldn’t be less excited about that. With no challenger on the roster, this is his show in 2024. He’s shown he can sling it in the past, but that feels like a lifetime ago. 3,800 yards and 25 touchdowns are decent, but on a game-over-game basis, it just doesn’t put us in a position to win the week. Granted, three of his last four games in 2023 went for 20+ points, so maybe there is some foreshadowing there for 2024 (but not likely). Also – he doesn’t run. Like ever. Not designed, panicked, or flushed out of the pocket – hardly ever. 32 carries for 40 yards y’all. That’s it. Without the running game to supplement his modest overall passing numbers, Carr is not somebody we’re excited to draft. He’s not suddenly going to turn into someone that we can count on for more than 15.0 fantasy points a game. He best fits the QB2 model, and that’s how he should be drafted.
Alvin Kamara is a fantastic all-purpose back, and that’s where his value presents. He’s not the same back he was from 2017-2020, however (where he finished RB4, RB4, RB8, and RB1 in fantasy points per game played, respectively), as he hasn’t finished inside the top 10 at the position the last two seasons (RB18, RB11). It may be fair to say that injuries have zapped him of his explosiveness and shiftiness (his per-touch metrics support this, trust me). The name of the game with Kamara is volume. He remained one of the best pass-catching RBs in one of the best situations for pass-catching RBs in the NFL in 2023 (the Saints – by design – throw to their RBs more than almost every other team in the league), and I don’t expect that to change for 2024. That, for sure, helps balance out the less-than-amazing run production for Kamara. We’d love to see more touchdowns from him (6 last season – thanks Taysom Hill), but the receiving yardage and PPR totals still play. He finished top 15 in about half the games he played and averaged 15.0 per game last year. Not shabby. He’s going off the board as RB17 inside the top 60, and I don’t hate the value there.
Drafted in the third round of the 2023 draft, Kendra Miller had a decent amount of buzz coming into the league. Injuries, however, limited him to just eight games, and he’s already dealing with a hamstring injury in camp. At this point, I don’t expect much from him this season, though if healthy, he’s the RB2 here. Jamaal Williams’ best days are behind him, methinks. The 2022 season in Detroit was MAGICAL. But this ain’t 2022, and we’re not in Detroit anymore, ToTo. The fact of the matter remains: 2022 was by far and away his best season, so it’s completely unrealistic to expect it again (or anything resembling it). He’ll compete with Miller for RB2 on this team, with neither producing enough to be fantasy-relevant. I hate the term handcuff, but both are in play as late-round fliers if you are determined to cuff hands.
Chris Olave is the clear WR1 here, and I’m kind of into him this year. Pro Football Focus loves this kid (16th out of 128 at the position), and he received fantastic receiving grades. His route participation was at 96.4%, his average depth of target was 13.9 yards, and he was 13th in team target share at the WR position. I did read an interesting piece the other day discussing Olave’s missed opportunities, so I dug a bit. It turns out that insight was insightful. Terrible contested catch rate, a difference of 711 yards between his receiving yards and air yards (1,834 v. 1,123), and 45 (33%) ball uncatchable balls thrown his way (though this improved as the year went on) do paint the picture of missed opportunities. But what if? What if those turned into, wait for it, opportunities? Better yet, realized production? He’s an impressive young player with an unimpressive QB throwing him the ball. Maybe with more chemistry, that changes – maybe. 138 targets plus all the target share metrics clearly point to opportunity in 2024, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him stand out in a big way. Of course, it could also be more of the same from a season ago. It’ll cost you to find out – WR11 and top 25 in early drafting. I think I’m in on the upside, folks. And I’ll be looking for him in R3 and maybe reaching into R2, depending on how the action plays out. He did leave practice today with an injury after landing on his hip, which will be something to monitor.
WR2 in this room goes by the name of Rashid Shaheed, and he’s pretty damn good himself. The kid is a big play receiver who made strides in his second season as a pro. In particular, he stepped up when Michael Thomas went down with an injury. And guess what? Michael Thomas is gone, the Saints didn’t significantly add to the room this offseason, and there really isn’t a WR3 on this roster (A.T. Perry is having a horrible camp so far). Expect his targets to go up and his numbers (75 targets, 46/719/5) to follow. Doing the math on that, he’s an incredible draft value (WR 58, 148 overall).
Taysom Hill is a jack of all trades (for real – check his snap count at each position), but he’s really only a standout at one position – goal line TD vulture (and annoying Kamara owners). The good thing about Hill is that the Saints use him everywhere, and all fantasy sites list him as a TE (the Saints actually list him as a QB). So, no matter where he lines up when he scores, we get to book it at TE. He finished last season as TE10 overall and TE12 in fantasy points per game (8.0). Not bad return on late-round investment if you pass on the Kelces and LaPortas of the world. Juwan Johnson is also quite capable, and his late-season production provides a glimpse into what could be – if the opportunity presents itself.
