One Week Season’s very own, Hilow is back for a part two Q/A this week! Hilow’s Roster Review pod looks at a lineup that takes down a massive prize each week and he also writes his Fast Break article each Wednesday focusing on the upcoming slate. Hilow is one of the best when it comes to analyzing a slate and being able to find leverage! Enjoy!
1. How’s the NBA season going for you? Do you mainly play single entry/3max like NFL or do you mix it up for NBA?
My approach to different sports comes down to managing variance. For example, in NFL and MLB DFS, points can be accrued quickly through splash plays (touchdowns in the NFL and things like multi-base hits and home runs in MLB). For NFL, I feel the greatest edge for me is gained through my ability to narrow down my player pool and utilize Game Theory. In MLB, as opposed to trying to mitigate variance, I like to amplify it. I play only MME GPPs utilizing 4-5 entries a slate, and I play every slate. As for NBA, because SE, 3-Max and cash lineups typically offer very little variance, I take a more counterintuitive approach, in that cash and SE/3-Max are more difficult to beat in NBA, so I leverage the low variance and increase it by playing only MME GPPs. Long answer for a short question, but it basically comes down to how I manage variance for each individual sport.
2. If you had $100 to play per day, how would you allocate it? Different slates, formats, Cash, SE/3Max, GPPs?
My advice would be to think about what you are good at and leverage that to the max extent possible, balanced against your bankroll. There truly is no “right” answer here, it just depends on your particular skill set, situation, bankroll and goals.
3. If you wanted to go back and spend a couple hours each week to review, how would you allocate your time? Personal DFS results, previous NBA action, GPP outcomes, etc…?
I would look back at three things: the cash line, the top handful of finishers, and your lineup. This will give you a good idea of how to improve your process (we’re not looking to pay attention to outcomes, but the “why” behind the “how” as to why those lineups were successful and why the top plays were the top plays).
4. What have you learned from doing your lineup review pod?
This takes us back to the answer to the previous question. Always learning, tweeking, improving, altering the process and growing. The reason we decided to do these weekly lineup reviews is to teach that process.
5. As the season has progressed, is there any other advice or game theory thoughts you would like to get out?
I realized after this week’s slate that I’m introducing too much variance in individual plays and it is affecting my cash rate in NBA. Again, this realization arose from looking back and analysing my play, which I highly recommend everyone do! As for Game Theory specifically, I would like to get back to the process that I teach in my course as far as individual variance is concerned (targeting floor and ceiling at the lower variance positions – center, point guard and power forward – and accepting more variance at the “shooting positions” – shooting guard and small forward).
6. If you could meet one DFS player in person to discuss DFS/Gambling/Life, who and why?
I know he is no longer in the game, but for me it would be Condia. My particular path on this journey pretty closely mirrored his (grinding low stakes cash games and tournaments in online poker, working my way up to high stakes cash games, and then making the transition to DFS). Condia was an animal at all three stops on that journey, and I’d love to pick his brain on what went right, what went wrong, why he decided to “hang up the boots,” and what he is into now.
Last week I started a spreadsheet on my ROI based on slate size which will help me analyze what size slates I should be playing. This will be interesting to track. I also got my Twitter lists done to help me track news better from beat writers. Double-ups killed me last week and I had an -66.7 ROI. Ouch!
I really liked Hilow’s answer to the 5th question and him analyzing his own play. I think that what he touched on with variance at particular positions is definitely something I should be looking at when analyzing the overall construction of my rosters. This is something I will be trying to focus on from now on. I also want to dedicate time to watching more games and also play a little bit of showdown while I’m watching a particular game. I think this will help me get more familiar with the teams, rotations, etc.