Ravens @ Saints
DFS Showdown Strategy
I don’t really know the way this game is likeliest to play out. I think there are a wide range of plausible outcomes here, so while the “likeliest” might be something around the Vegas total (duh), I generally find it profitable in Showdown to build for things that are not the median outcome. So let’s consider . . .
- The Ravens have struggled on offense the past few weeks and are missing multiple key players, while the Saints defense seems better on paper than they’ve played so far this year. What if the Saints just stomp them, as they did to the Raiders last week?
- On the flip side of that coin, the Ravens offense still has one of the best QBs in the league and a few reasonable pass catchers, while their own defense really should be better than it’s shown and they’re playing against Andy Dalton. Clearly onslaughts each way are viable options.
- Both teams have offenses that have scored into the 30s multiple times. There’s a very real chance this game gets into the 60s, and you can build for that outcome.
- Or, in what is probably the least likely scenario, both offenses could flounder and we could see an “under” game in which the total comes in below 40. In that scenario, nailing the touchdowns is crucial, but it’s also critical to identify who can succeed without finding the end zone (volume/yardage guys like Olave and Kamara stand out here).
In cash games, my player pool consists of Lamar, Kamara, Duvernay, Landry (if he plays), Olave, the kickers, and I think Hill is my favorite value option if I need to go down there. Washington is viable if you need a min price guy.
The clear “best” captains are Kamara and Lamar but I want to make sure to be overweight on Olave, Duvernay, and Landry.
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