Through this article, I will be highlighting a small player pool that is composed of players that rank high in my proprietary model. There are several factors this model takes into consideration such as: DVP (Defense Vs Position), OL/DL matchup, WR/CB matchup, game pace, Vegas totals, target share, value score, air yard opportunities and a few secret sauce metrics I can’t discuss further. As we move forward I will do my best to point out some of the higher ranked players for the OWS community to take into consideration as part of their own research. When it comes to game selection, I would encourage this player pool to be used in single entry, 3-Max smaller field tournaments.
Mahomes is topping the model, that’s all there is to say about him.
We all know Hurts isn’t playing good real life football, but when it comes to fantasy, he is as consistent as it can get right now. As I scan through the model I notice that several players from the Eagles vs Raiders game are ranking relatively high; this tells me it should be a great game to target and Hurts is one of the centerpieces of this juicy matchup. The ancillary pieces in this matchup make for great stack pieces. At a low cost to access, this matchup has big upside. As a bonus, Hurts will get some help with the return of stud RT Lane Johnson.
Consideration: Ryan Tannehill, Derek Carr
Every once in a while we get a player that checks all the boxes: highest implied total, favorable matchup, OL/DL mismatch, value play, fast-paced game, and pass game involvement. These are some high-level metrics the model really values, and Henderson is checking them all. In this game, Henderson faces a very weak run defense, and as a lead back, he should be able to feast on this opportunity. Reading through this week’s Edge writeups I picked up on this snippet that validates some of the things the model is picking up on: “said matchup yields a healthy 4.655 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Lions defense allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to the running back position (12 total touchdowns allowed to opposing backfields).”
I am surprised to see Jacobs rank pretty high in the model so I am listing him as a sneaky value play. Jacobs does get a favorable matchup as the Eagles rank 25th in rush defense DVOA. Ownership seems to remain in check, as of right now (Friday morning), but he could gain momentum as Sunday approaches. I like him as a home favorite. Here are some stat lines that stand out regarding the Eagles run defense:
Leonard Fournette: 127- 2 td’s
Clyde Edwards- Elaire: 114 – 1 td
Ezekiel Elliot: 116 – 2 td’s
Consideration: Derrick Henry, Miles Sanders. Darrel Williams
Another week, another Tyreek Hill blowup spot possibility. My only hesitation is his health status; we need to monitor that but this has the makings of a Tyreek “must have score” spot, going against a mediocre Titans pass defense that is allowing the most fantasy points to WRs in the entire league. On the flip side, the KC defense has not been able to stop opposing offenses from scoring so this game should stay competitive throughout. You know the Chiefs will push the pace. Over the last few weeks, they have been ranking 7th in pass rate over expectation. As a bonus, starting Titans CB Kristian Fulton is on IR, leaving behind some stragglers at corner to cover Tyreek Hill.
Tyreek seems like an obvious chalky play. The model is liking what it sees and I have to relay that to you. That’s the way I play. I like to play the best plays and let others make mistakes. At the same time, we can also find some hidden gems in the model, such as we have here with Marquise Brown vs Bengals. Brown will fly under the radar. The Bengals have already given up big games to Devante Adams (11-20-1), Chase Claypool (9-96-0), and Adam Thielen (9-92-2). The arrows point up for Brown.
Smith makes his return to Money Makers with a great matchup vs Raiders and potential shadow treatment by aging Casey Hayward, who most recently got torched by Courtland Sutton for 8-94-1. This game is projected to be one of the fastest-paced matchups in this small and somewhat sluggish slate. This game has a decent total relative to other games and should stay competitive throughout (there are a lot of one-sided matchups this weekend).
Consideration: Ja’Marr Chase, Brandin Cooks
This is the TE crown Jewel of this slate. Ownership will be high but seems warranted. The weakness of the Eagles defense is the run and inside coverage as they remain stout on the outside with Darius Slay and Steven Nelson. The coiled spring is tightening for Waller and I am betting it pops this weekend.
Consideration: Travis Kelce, Dallas Goedert
Jalen Hurts / Devonta Smith / Darren Waller
Patrick Mahomes / Tyreek Hill / A.J. Brown