Mike’s Player Grid 8.22

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Welcome back to my (Mjohnson86) Player Grid. The format will vary slightly from JM’s Player Grid, as we each see things slightly differently and play in slightly different contests, but should complement his thoughts and content very well for those looking to build their lineups for the week. The format of this article will likely evolve as the season progresses but should provide a lot of value. Enjoy!!

The Core

This is a list of players that stand out to me at each position from using my “Checking the Boxes” criteria outlined in my course you can find in our Marketplace. This list is a starting point, from which I build out lineups using game theory and roster construction concepts (which we will also touch on) with the mindset being to find the best plays with big ceilings. Low ownership is a bonus, but not a must. This section will focus primarily on three positions – running back, tight end, and defense – as the other two positions (quarterback and wide receiver) tend to have more dependent tendencies which I try to attack from other angles (which we will get into in the other sections). I like all of these plays on all sites unless otherwise noted:

Running Back ::

Josh Jacobs

Frankly, the price tag and projected ownership for Jacobs this week is a little insulting considering the run he’s been on of late and the matchup/situation he is in this week. 23 rushes and 5 targets per game the last three weeks and a matchup with a defense that has given up 28+ points in four straight games and just let Eno Benjamin score 23 DK points on only 16 touches. Fire him back up.

TONY POLLARD

Don’t need to overthink this. Pollard has been one of the most efficient and explosive RBs in the league over the past couple of seasons on a per-touch basis. Ezekiel Elliott is out this week, leaving Pollard likely to touch the ball somewhere in the range of 18 to 25 times at home against a poor run defense that is playing on a short week.

Alvin Kamara

Since returning from injury in Week 5, Kamara is averaging 18 rushes and 8 targets per game. That is elite volume for the seventh highest priced RB on the slate (9th on Fanduel). Kamara is playing in a dome in the game with the second highest over/under on the slate. He has touched the ball 101 times this season without a touchdown, something that is going to regress at some point – possibly in a huge way.

Derrick Henry

Henry has 26+ opportunities (carries + targets) in each of his last four games. The Texans have allowed 30+ Draftkings points to four running backs through six weeks. The biggest concern here would be a big Titans lead causing them to rest Henry, but he could easily have broken off a couple of long TD runs to help them get to that point. Henry has been close to breaking off long runs a few times in the last couple of weeks but was tripped up. An eruption is likely coming soon. If the current context wasn’t enough, here are Henry’s last three games against the Texans:: 211 yards, 3 TDs….212 yards, 2 TDs….250 yards, 2 TDs.

SIDE NOTES::

Kenneth Walker – Walker has looked excellent the last couple of weeks and is the type of back who the Seahawks could look to build their offense around for the stretch run. He has big play ability and is in a great matchup, at home against a defense that has looked better in the box score than they have performed due to holding strong in the red zone. Walker can score from distance and the Giants defense could be in store for some negative TD regression. If his usage and improvement continue, Walker could very easily be an $8k RB by the end of November.
Saquon Barkley – Playing in the same game as Walker, Barkley has 25+ RB opportunities (targets plus carries) in five of seven games. Barkley has not broken loose for many long runs yet this season but is certainly still capable of it. His price tag and the look of a “road underdog” will likely keep him at the bottom of the ownership
Christian McCaffery – This is very straightforward as an NFL DFS GPP play – buy early (before you see it), bet on talent, and play high ceiling players at low ownership. There is a lot of uncertainty here as CMC has only played one game in San Francisco and saw limited action. Deebo Samuel is likely going to miss this game or be severely limited (Note: Deebo Samuel has been ruled OUT for week 8), however, and this is a high leverage game for the 49ers chances of winning the division. They didn’t give up all those draft picks to give CMC the ball 15 times. He is clearly still an elite talent, playing on the best offense for the best play caller of his career, and will not be heavily owned due to the nature of the slate with so many solid RB options.

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