Thursday, Sep 5th
Monday, Sep 9th

Mike’s Player Grid 20.23

My “Player Grid” for the Divisional round of the playoffs will take the same format as what I did for many of the smaller holiday and Saturday slates this season which has the feel of my usual “Afternoon Only” article that I do every Sunday. A full-fledged Player Grid would involve too many players for a slate with such a limited player pool to begin with. Rather, this slate very closely resembles what we see most Sundays with only three to four games in the late window. The added caveat for these fun slates is that we get time between each game to learn from what has happened already and the ownerships that have flipped over.

QB Strategy

Quarterback is always an important position but that importance goes to another level on these small slates. There are two main reasons for this. First, on average quarterbacks score the most points of any position and we can only start one of them. Second, correlation is even more important as the slates get smaller and there are fewer scoring opportunities to go around. By choosing the right quarterback, you are also increasing the chances that you are right at two other positions. Again, the shorter slate condenses the scoring across all lineups, making each position more vital to separating and giving yourself a chance to win. This is why quarterback strategy has its own section:

  • Lamar Jackson may carry a lot of ownership but his receivers should all be modestly owned at reasonable salaries. People like to think of Lamar as a runner but he’s been terrific throwing the ball as well and “Lamar doubles” are a great way to attack this slate.
  • Brock Purdy can silence a lot of critics with a big game this week, and I think he will. I expect the 49ers offense to put up a big number and Purdy doubles are also very viable. I’ll have those with variations of all the different key 49ers offensive players mixed in.
  • Jared Goff’s best chance at a big game and high efficiency is if they are able to control the game rather than falling behind and letting Tampa tee off on him. For that reason, when playing Goff, I will be looking to fully stack the Lions with three of his teammates between LaPorta, the two RBs, and the three WRs. Basically, if Goff is posting a tournament winning score then I expect the Lions have scored 4 or 5 TDs with 450 yards of total offense. And since Goff doesn’t run at all that means there’s a TON of production coming from their skill group.
  • If someone told us about this weekend’s playoff matchups before the season, we would have expected the Chiefs and Bills to dominate ownership with Mahomes and Allen as the clear top QB options on the slate. They won’t go overlooked but it’s interesting to see both of them projecting for modest ownership and Mahomes priced around the second tier of QBs.
Defense Strategy

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