Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests
Welcome back to my (Mjohnson86) Player Grid. The format will vary slightly from JM’s Player Grid, as we each see things slightly differently and play in slightly different contests, but should complement his thoughts and content very well for those looking to build their lineups for the week. The format of this article will likely evolve as the season progresses but should provide a lot of value. Enjoy!!
This is a list of players that stand out to me at each position from using my “Checking the Boxes” criteria outlined in my Checking The Boxes course. This list is a starting point, from which I build out lineups using game theory and roster construction concepts (which we will also touch on) with the mindset being to find the best plays with big ceilings. Low ownership is a bonus, but not a must. This section will focus primarily on three positions – running back, tight end, and defense – as the other two positions (quarterback and wide receiver) tend to have more dependent tendencies which I try to attack from other angles (which we will get into in the other sections). I like all of these plays on all sites, unless otherwise noted:
Kelley had a larger-than-expected role in Week 1 and we have now removed Austin Ekeler from the equation. Tennessee is best attacked through the air, but the Chargers offensive line is legit and Kelley’s volume in a very good offense is too much to ignore at his price tag.
The Bills are playing on a short week after being gutted by the Jets on the ground. Jacobs showed in Week 1 that he still has one of the biggest RB roles in the league and now Jakobi Meyers will be out, leaving Jacobs and Davante Adams to account for the overwhelming majority of the Raiders offensive usage.
My hope for this game is that Aaron Jones does play, which will keep Dillon’s ownership very low. The Packers offense is built around their running backs first and Aaron Jones missed practice all week, so even if he does play, I would expect him to have limited touches while also being at high risk for aggravation.
Etienne may end up as one of my bigger misses this year in Best Ball. I didn’t draft much of him, but he looked terrific in Week 1 and this game projects as the most likely to shootout on the Week 2 slate. Etienne’s usage was also very encouraging, as his role in the passing game appears to have grown from last year. The Chiefs have traditionally been more vulnerable to running backs than wide receivers and struggled with the Lions RBs in Week 1. Decent matchup, elite usage, talented back, great game environment, middling ownership, and price.
Walker is an explosive back who can break off long runs. He played just under 65% of snaps last week but handled 17 of 23 RB opportunities. His price tag doesn’t match his talent in a potentially explosive game environment.
Kittle scored seven touchdowns in the last four regular season games of 2022 with Brock Purdy as his quarterback. A player with his weekly ceiling at a modest salary and low ownership is a smash button play for a team that has scored 30+ points in six of their seven regular season games with Brock Purdy as the starter.
Last season, Okonkwo was an extremely efficient player and showed off his athleticism and explosiveness when given the opportunity. This week, the Titans figure to be pushed by the Chargers offense, and DeAndre Hopkins will likely be out or limited. Okonkwo played 83% of the snaps in Week 1 and ran a route on 82% of the dropbacks. That’s the type of usage we were begging for in 2022 and now we have it.
It’s going to take me more than one disappointing game to give up on Kincaid. This is a guy who played over 80% of the snaps and ran a route on 93% of Josh Allen’s dropbacks. A rough debut against one of the top defenses in the league doesn’t scare me off.
Zach Wilson + Nathaniel Hackett
It’s not often you get a top-5 defense at only $2,700. This is a “bet on talent and fade Week 1 reactions” play that is not for the faint of heart.
My intuition is that this game could be very high-scoring (see below), but the Lions defense should have plenty of chances for sacks and interceptions against an undermanned offensive line.
