Thursday, Dec 8th
Bye Week:
Saints
Colts
Commanders
Packers
Bears
Falcons

Magico’s Money Makers

El Magico is a high-stakes tournament champion who focuses on single-entry/three-entry max // small-field play

In this article, I will be highlighting a player pool composed of players that rank high in my proprietary model. This model usually starts working its magic once we have three weeks of historical data so there will be some small tweaking done until we get to that point in Week 4. There are several factors this model takes into consideration: DVP (Defense Vs Position), OL/DL matchup, WR/CB matchup, game pace, Vegas totals, target share, value score, air yard opportunities, and a few secret sauce metrics that I can’t discuss further. As we move forward, I will do my best to point out some of the higher ranked players for the OWS community to take into consideration as part of their own research. When it comes to game selection, I would encourage this player pool to be used in single entry and 3-max smaller field tournaments. 

My motto for this week: Early bird gets the worm.

QB:

Jalen Hurts:

The Vegas total is too low; it will either move by the end of the week or they simply have it wrong. I had to manually tweak the model because of the conviction I have for this game to shoot out. With that said, Jalen Hurts is one of the highest ranked players in the model. We know the rushing floor is there. In a four-game sample last season, he had 46 rush attempts, 272 yards, and three touchdowns. And I strongly believe this game will provide more passing upside for Hurts than the industry is accounting for. I will take the speedy receiver core on turf against a leaky Atlanta secondary, and look for Hurts to surprise us with passing upside and a very strong rushing floor. Let’s play Hurts thinking he can win through the air. 

Patrick Mahomes:

All arrows point up for Mahomes in this matchup. As Majestik has been pointing out, Cleveland’s affinity to play zone is a huge plus for Mahomes. I suggest you check Majestik’s Twitter feed. So, let’s make an argument that the Browns work in a new scheme with their newly signed players. Okay, now you all must face Mahomes, good luck! If there is a week to pay up at QB, this is it.

RB:

Najee Harris:

If you could play prime Le’Veon Bell at a 30% discount, would you play him? Most people would answer, YES. With that said, we know the Steelers under coach Mike Tomlin have given elite usage to anyone playing RB, so let’s be early on this mispriced player. This should be a fast-paced game where the Steelers will be forced to keep up with the Bills, and we know what Ben Roethlisberger likes to do in those situations, check down to his RB’s. The matchup against the Bills rushing defense is neutral at best and opportunities will be plentiful for Harris.

Mike Davis:

I think this is a high leverage spot for big Mike Davis. He surprisingly ranked the highest of all RB’s so he deserves consideration due to his high score, but what I like the most is the leverage he provides at a pretty decent price if he produces as the model is predicting. The off-season has been plagued with Davis haters and truthers, but the hate is overwhelming and should be enough to overwhelm the truthers from playing him. I expect Kyle Pitts to be the highest owned TE so that will deter people from playing Davis as well, but why not play them together? As Hilow mentioned in his Eagles // Falcons Edge Matchup, this is a consolidated offense and most of the offense should go through three main players, one of them being Davis with almost 100% of RB touches. We have seen what Davis can do when he garnishes this type of usage and the game environment lends itself for extra opportunities and a good amount of receptions to go on top of his rushing and goal line work. 

WR:

Tyreek Hill:

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