El Magico is a high-stakes tournament champion who focuses on single-entry/three-entry max // small-field play
Through this article, I will be highlighting a small player pool that is composed of players that rank high in my proprietary model. This model usually starts working its magic once we have 3 weeks of historical data so there will be some small tweaking done until we get to that point in Week 4. There are several factors this model takes into consideration such as: DVP (Defense Vs Position), OL/DL matchup, WR/CB matchup, game pace, Vegas totals, target share, value score, air yard opportunities and a few secret sauce metrics I can’t discuss further. As we move forward I will do my best to point out some of the higher ranked players for the OWS community to take into consideration as part of their own research. When it comes to game selection, I would encourage this player pool to be used in single entry, 3-Max smaller field tournaments.
We just saw Mahomes struggle against one of the best defensive schemes in the NFL, and we just saw the Cowboys manhandle this Eagles defense. Here comes angry Patrick Mahomes in a get well spot in a high total game. This matchup bodes well to Mahomes’ strengths and the Eagles weakness, which is defending the tight end. When players like Mahomes rank well in the model it’s hard to get away from them, even at a steep price.
Consideration: Josh Allen, Dak Prescott
I am listing Hunt here because I am intrigued. Hunt has quietly been having a very productive season, mostly based on efficiency, but I think that the volume will be something that the Browns will need from him this week. The OL/DL matchup for Hunt is one of the best in Week 4 and the lack of a dynamic intermediate option for Baker Mayfield (no Jarvis Landry) will require more playing time from Hunt. Hunt got seven targets last week in a sluggish game environment and this game environment bodes much better for Hunt and his skills. At the same time, if the Browns are able to keep the Vikings offense in check, then this could turn into a Nick Chubb game as the model is spotting similar metrics for both RBs. I would like to play the two different scenarios this week, but I favor Hunt at low ownership and bigger upside than Chubb.
Note: Gibson is questionable. Keep an eye on his status
I expect some under the radar fireworks for this matchup and the model likes the position that Gibson finds himself in. The touches for Gibson have been holding steady despite the presence of J.D. McKissic, and this matchup lines up well for him in the trenches in a most likely neutral game script. Another aspect of this game that the model is picking up on is the opportunity of an elevated number of plays this game can offer.
Consideration: Derrick Henry, Sony Michel (if Darrell Henderson is ruled out)
The Bills continue attacking through the air and show no signs of stopping, as if it’s the only way they can move the ball. The air yards and opportunities are coiling up for Diggs like a rocket, and this cupcake matchup feels like a get well and back on track to 2020 Diggs/Allen form. The model likes to predict eruption spots, and this looks like one of them.
Moore enters week 4 with a whopping 31% target share, averaging just about 10 targets per game. I can see this game shooting out, and if so, DJ Moore should be a big part of it as he faces a pretty favorable matchup; but, more than anything, volume volume volume, and he carries a relatively affordable price tag, making him a pretty good value with tremendous upside. In my opinion, this matchup should resemble the track meet we saw in Week 1 when the Cowboys faced Tampa Bay and not the messy game environment the Cowboys got forced into last week on MNF vs the Eagles.
We don’t have a lot of data on OBJ yet since he made his season debut last week, but the numbers are promising. Odell accounted for 31% target share and 49% of the team air yards in a poor game environment where the Browns offense didn’t need much to win the game. Now comes a Week 4 matchup against a prolific offense, but a defense with two of the most vulnerable corners in the league, Bashaud Breeland and dusty Patrick Peterson. This should be a game where the Browns and Baker will need to get on the aggressive side of things, and that bodes well for their WR1, OBJ.
Consideration: Cooper Kupp, Amari Cooper, Emmanuel Sanders
Kelce comes into this week ranked WR3, oops, I mean TE1. This matchup comes in as one-sided as they come. On the other side of the field, Kelce will match up with players like Eric Wilson who is one of the worst graded defensive players in the league. The Cowboys demonstrated that the way to attack this defense is through your TE and it so happens that this week the Eagles will face this daunting task. At the same time, this week seems to be one of those ugly TE weeks, so gaining an edge on this position may be key, or you can play Kelce as a WR1 in your flex.
Consideration: George Kittle, Evan Engram, Kyle Pitts (again!)
Baker Mayfield // Kareem Hunt // Odell Beckham Jr // Adam Thielen
Patrick Mahomes // Travis Kelce // DeVonta Smith