El Magico is a high-stakes tournament champion who focuses on single-entry/three-entry max // small-field play
In this article, I will be highlighting a player pool composed of players that rank high in my proprietary model. This model usually starts working its magic once we have three weeks of historical data so there will be some small tweaking done until we get to that point in Week 4. There are several factors this model takes into consideration: DVP (Defense Vs Position), OL/DL matchup, WR/CB matchup, game pace, Vegas totals, target share, value score, air yard opportunities, and a few secret sauce metrics that I can’t discuss further. As we move forward, I will do my best to point out some of the higher ranked players for the OWS community to take into consideration as part of their own research. When it comes to game selection, I would encourage this player pool to be used in single entry and 3-max smaller field tournaments.
My motto for this week: Charge The Cowboys.
Herbert sits atop the model at the QB position. Herbert was kind enough to remind us how aggressive he likes to be, averaging 7.2 yards per attempt against the stingy WFT defense. Seven days later he gets a cupcake matchup vs a now somewhat depleted (no Randy Gregory, no Demarcus Lawrence) Cowboys defense which already had the 3rd lowest pressure rate in the league (18%). I expect Dallas to remain a pass funnel defense, and this game should be one of the highest paced games of the slate and also carries the highest game total, which has already been pushed up by 3 points.
Mr. Efficiency enters Week 2 with an even softer matchup at home as he faces the weak Titans defense. I like this play in the scenario that the Titans get their offensive game plan together, which tends to push game pace significantly. If we are playing the same game as last year where Seahawks receivers alternated eruption weeks, then we should see plenty of big splash plays to DK Metcalf.
Consideration: Ryan Tannehill, Tom Brady
There are a few key metrics here that are making Carson rank high in the model: OL/DL mismatch in his favor, high vegas total, home favorite, fast paced game, and he now sits atop a thinning RB room. I do expect the Titans to get back on track for this matchup, so that should lend for some extra targets for Carson to add to his very strong role in this high scoring affair.
This one comes with a fumble cautionary tale, but I am thinking this is redemption time for Harris, who had a game-costing red zone fumble. Let’s assume for a minute that Harris had not fumbled, and scored a TD while running out the clock for the Patriots. In this scenario that would’ve added 8 more points (10 rushing yards and no fumble) to his 15.7 DK performance. Harris is mispriced as a seven point home favorite with a 30 touch game within his range of outcomes, and with game flow on his side. It also doesn’t hurt that he had two receptions last week.
Consideration: Austin Ekeler, Najee Harris, Nick Chubb.
There are a few times a year when a player ranks off the charts in the model. This week, Allen seems to be checking all the boxes the model likes in a WR: pace, target share, matchup, game total, value play, and so on. Albeit, he will come with ownership and should be a hot topic this week on the OWS site. I am looking forward to seeing how the rest of the OWS contributors plan on handling Allen this week, but I am all in on this one against my hometown team.
Godwin is ranking pretty strong and has a similar path to a blowup spot as Keenan Allen. I usually have a hard time guessing which Bucs wide receiver to play, but the model really likes Godwin over his peers. I think a big piece of this puzzle will come down to the Falcons bouncing back and getting more aggressive in their style of play and doing what we think is the obvious thing to do vs the Bucs, which is pass pass pass. In this case, I will let the model do its work and trust this high score and consider Godwin in my player pool, providing some leverage off similarly priced players like the Cowboys receivers and Allen.
We are going to take advantage of this mispriced player in a good situation. Over the years the Steelers have been a notorious slot receiver dream matchup, and I expect Hunter Renfrow to be able to take advantage of this while the Raiders will most likely be playing from behind and forced to pass the football. Out of all the pass-catching options on the Raiders, Renfrow draws the easiest matchup vs slot corner Tre Norwood, and after getting nine targets on MNF, he provides value and a decent floor for your money.
Consideration: Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Tyler Lockett, Emmanuel Sanders, Terrace Marshall
What can I say, the model likes the Chargers this week for many of the same reasons. In this case, I think Trevon Diggs’ performance last week vs Mike Evans is promising for the Cowboys D on the outside, but the inside remains an issue. Hence: Rob Gronkowski and Chris Godwin feasted last week, in a similar style to how Allen and Cook can feast this week. Cook was a fade for me in Best Ball, but I do like him with fresh legs early in the season and, in particular, his very healthy amount of targets he received last week (8), which ranks him second to Waller on the main slate this week.
Fant led his team in target share (22%), and now has some vacated targets due to Jerry Jeudy’s injury. On top of that, the Texans just gave up a combined 70 yards and a touchdown to some guys named O’Shaughnessy and Manhertz, which starts giving us a glimpse into how soft this matchup is, and the model is picking up on that.
Consideration: Tyler Higbee, Rob Gronkowski
Justin Herbert / Keenan Allen / Jared Cook / Ceedee Lamb, and/or Amari Cooper.