Thursday, Sep 5th
Monday, Sep 9th

Lions @ Chiefs

DFS Showdown Strategy

By: xandamere & LArejo


Outlook

With two really good offenses, a massive game total, two very clear elite skill position plays in ASRB + Kelce, and then the world’s greatest quarterback (Mahomes, not Goff, duh), I think that we can expect to see a lot of stars & scrubs builds that try to fit 3 of the 4 top plays on the slate (with Goff being the 4th). There are a lot of viable cheap plays available, which makes the stars & scrubs approach attractive. It’s pretty easy to do. For example, Kelce captain with Mahomes, ASRB, and then 3 cheap plays (Butker, Chiefs D, Justyn Ross for example). I think we’ll see a lot of lineups that look like that, so that gives us some clear opportunities for how we can play it differently than the field.

Potential Scenarios
  • I expect that the running backs as a group are likely to go a bit underowned here (as they generally do in very high total games when the field builds for shootouts). But, if the scoring comes on the ground, we could easily see something like Pacheco or Gibbs captain be optimal.
  • Consider captaining a cheap option rather than just using them as a punt. If Justyn Ross catches a long touchdown for 12 fantasy points, that could easily lead to him being the optimal captain in a roster that lets you include all 4 of the main studs. 
  • Broadly speaking, if multi-entering, strongly consider being overweight on the mid-range plays (the guys in between the kickers and Goff), as I think the pricing dynamics of this game are going to lead to them being lower owned than they should be.
  • Think carefully about how to deal with the main studs (Kelce, Mahomes, ASRB). A LOT of lineups are going to try to fit all three of them, and I’d guess something like 80% of lineups will have at least two of them. They’re elite plays and I’m not saying not to use them, but just recognize that any roster with two or three of those guys is going to have to be careful to differentiate elsewhere, while if you’re willing to only use one of them, you can basically do whatever you want with the rest of your roster and not worry much about ownership. 
Cash Games

In cash games, my player pool consists of QBs, Kelce, ASRB, Gibbs, Pacheco, the kickers, and then my favorite “safe” punt for cash is Watson (he’s just $200 and it’s a near-certainty that he’ll be on the field a fair bit). Cash is tough in this one. Normally, I like to lean on running backs for cash games but they aren’t quite as safe in this one. I might even consider running Watson captain in cash to let me afford to do whatever I want with the rest of the lineup. 

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