Late Swap 2.23

StatATL has a math degree and a background as a financial analyst, and has blended an analytical, numbers-driven approach with an “OWS mindset” to rack up over $100,000 in lifetime DFS profit while maintaining low weekly buy-ins

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Outlook – Late Games:

Four of the twelve total games fall into the late window this weekend, with only the 49ers surpassing a 24-point Vegas implied team total. Outside of two San Francisco pieces (CMC and Deebo Samuel), I don’t expect much ownership around any of these four games except for Rams WR Puka Nacua potentially being the only other exception, however, I feel his ownership will come in under current projections as he is a player who was completely unknown to a vast majority of the field until last week.

Overall, ownership should congregate around a few spots this week as there are a handful of clear best game environments. The two main decision points of the week will be around accounting for Kansas City at Jacksonville and the Buffalo Bills offense (more on this below). The Chiefs and Jaguars game carries a 51 implied point total (four points more than the next highest) and features several strong on paper plays. That said, if your main stack on a roster is from the early games, such as the Chiefs and Jaguars or Bills and Raiders, I suggest a construction with at least two spots, preferably one being the Flex, saved for the afternoon games. This will allow you to block the most popular players if your early plays smash, or get contrarian with some of the options outlined below if your roster needs to play catch up to get over the cash line.

Important Early Outcomes to Watch:

• Joshua Kelley. With Austin Ekeler ruled out, Kelley is underpriced for his likeliest role, however, the Titans have historically been a tough matchup for RBs. At $5,000, Kelley is projected for around 25% ownership and will likely be the highest owned player on the entire slate.
• AJ Dillion (if Aaron Jones is inactive). At $5,900, Dillion figures to garner high ownership, despite a road matchup and low team total for Green Bay (currently in the teens).
• Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs. Allen is projected as the highest owned QB and will be most often stacked with Diggs. This is a very expensive pairing ($15,900), and while raw points are looking to potentially be more important than usual on this slate, a 3x-4x combined output will likely need to be accounted for.
• Chiefs vs Jaguars, but specifically Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce. Mahomes and Kelce are likely to be the highest or second highest owned at their respective positions and are just as expensive ($15,900) as the previously mentioned Allen and Diggs stack. Trevor Lawrence, Calvin Ridley, and Zay Jones each also project for double digit ownership, making this game environment one to monitor and account for as a whole. The same explanation as above applies to Mahomes/Kelce.
•  “Slate Breakers” such as Tyreek Hill’s 47.5 DK point performance last week.

Price Range Breakdowns (Late Games):

$7,100 and up: