Sunday, Feb 12th — Late
Bye Week:
49ers
Bears
Bengals
Bills
Broncos
Browns
Buccaneers
Cardinals
Chargers
Colts
Commanders
Cowboys
Dolphins
Falcons
Giants
Jaguars
Jets
Lions
Packers
Panthers
Patriots
Raiders
Rams
Ravens
Saints
Seahawks
Steelers
Texans
Titans
Vikings

Late Swap 18.22

StatATL is an OWS Fam grad who had multiple tournament wins last season that included a large field showdown for MNF and a $50,000 SE win. This season Billy has been hammering short slates and utilizing late swap. In this article, he’ll help you take advantage of late swap.

Need more late swap education? Read this free educational article on Late Swap

Outlook – Late Games:

Five of the thirteen Sunday games fall into the late window this weekend, with only the Eagles and 49ers surpassing a 24-point Vegas implied team total. In these games, only six total skill position players are currently projected for double-digit ownership, with two projecting as the highest overall owned players on the entire slate in Kenneth Walker and Christian McCaffrey. The others that fit the bill are AJ Brown, Cam Akers, Miles Sanders, and Dallas Goedert.

Motivation comes into play this week more than any other of the NFL regular season, as many teams have nothing to play for, while others have playoff berths and seeding implications hanging in the balance.

Important Early Outcomes to Watch:
  • Vikings – Third highest projected team total in the early window, and extremely concentrated offense. Motivation – Playing for seeding (home field). Justin Jefferson needs 194 yards to set the single-season WR record. Jefferson is currently projected as the highest-owned WR on the slate.
  • Bengals – Second highest projected team total in the early window and a reasonably concentrated offense. Motivation – Playing for seeding (home field). Jamar Chase tied with Jefferson as the highest projected owned WR on the slate.
  • Bills – Highest projected team total of the early games and also pretty concentrated. Motivation – Seeding implications and could be playing for a bye (if KC loses Saturday).
Price Range Breakdowns (Late Games):

$6,000 and up:

  • Kenneth Walker – Coming off back-to-back games of 24 or more RB opportunities (carries + targets) in a game the Seahawks have to win. Highest owned player on the slate but for good reason.
  • AJ Brown – Averaging 9.8 targets over his past five games, including multiple outings of 30+ DK points during that stretch. Must win game for Eagles to clinch the #1 seed. The Eagles put up 48 points against this same Giants squad last month.
  • George Kittle – Averaging 7 targets and 23.5 DK points over his past three games. Arizona is the worst DVOA against the TE position and the 49ers will be motivated as they can still grab the #1 seed in the NFC if they win and the Eagles lose.

$5,000 – $5,900:

  • Miles Sanders – Lead running back on a home team favored to win by two touchdowns. Smashed this same Giants team for 144 yards last month and has shown 30+ point, multiple score upside, several times already this season.
  • Marquise Brown – Has seen 6 or more targets in every game this season (averaging just shy of 9.5). I expect the Cardinals to be playing catch-up most of the game and Hopkins and Ertz are both out.
  • Jordan Mason – 49ers should easily control this game and have shown a propensity to ease off CMC’s workload in less competitive games.

$4,000 – $4,900:

  • Jonathan Williams – Expected to serve as the Commanders three down RB with Brain Robinson, Antonio Gibson, and JD McKissic all out. Had 12 RB last week (including 3 targets).
  • Chase Edmonds – Saw his highest usage of the season since Week 1 (while with MIA) with Marlon Mack on IR. I would expect Denver to try and keep the momentum going heading into the offseason.

Sub $4,000:

  • Donald Parham – Chargers have nothing to play for and Parham has seen his snap count rise each of the past three weeks after missing 2+ months with a hamstring injury.
  • Albert O – Coming off his best performance of the season last week after Greg Dulcich was placed on IR. Again, I expect Denver to try and keep the momentum going heading into the offseason.

Defense:

  • Eagles ($4,000) – At home in a must-win game against an opponent with nothing to play for. Good leverage off 49ers DST, who projects to be the highest-owned defense on the slate.
  • Seahawks ($3,300) – Similar explanation as Eagles DST.
Stacks/Construction:

If your roster leaves both the FLEX and DST spots for the late slate, I’d recommend 49ers and Kenneth Walker as placeholders as this will allow you the flexibility to swap down to Miles Sanders and Eagles DST or up to AJ Brown and down to Denver DST at $2,500. Things could change, so as always, keep an eye on late-breaking news and remember to make sure your latest starting skill position player is in the FLEX spot.

I hope to see you and your OWS avatar at the top of a leaderboard this week!