StatATL is an OWS Fam grad who had multiple tournament wins last season that included a large field showdown for MNF and a $50,000 SE win. This season Billy has been hammering short slates and utilizing late swap. In this article, he’ll help you take advantage of late swap.
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What I like about Sunday’s slate is that the most dynamic game is first. While this game will likely be the most owned game due to its perceived “fantasy goodness”, it has many tributaries on how it can play out on a one-game sample size. Players who are willing to embrace some uncertainty and leverage late swap will likely be at a competitive advantage.
On a small slate, like this upcoming three gamer for Sunday, one of the biggest mistakes our competition will make in terms of roster construction will be thinking about certainty or safety (what’s likeliest to happen) first and building around that. It’s essential to remember that on a one-week sample size, things will likely play out differently, and embracing uncertainty is advantageous.
I want to once again emphasize the importance of capturing the players who put up 20+ point scores, as there may only be a few of them on the entire slate. As always, we are not just picking players we like, but are constructing a roster that works together. With that in mind, below are some key skill position players from each team with their top scores thus far this season. This is a good measuring stick of who is and likely isn’t capable of a had-to-have-it score as well as which players most consistently return 3x their salary.
For reference of how important capturing a 20-point score is, excluding QBs, there are only 6 skill position players across all 6 teams that have three or more games all season eclipsing the 20 point ceiling, and all come from the Dolphins, Packers and Cardinals(!!):
Going into the late game, a few salary combinations are below for consideration:
Highest owned pair:
Brady + Godwin ($13,000)
If behind, consider:
Brady + Hollywood Brown ($11,500)
Highest Owned Late Game Trio:
Brady + Godwin + Evans ($19,200)
If behind, consider:
Brady + Evans + Fournette ($18,100)
With the news coming early of Colt McCoy being ruled out, I fully expect the Bucs Defense to be the highest owned by a wide margin. The most likely game script has the Cardinals falling behind and having to pass with their 3rd string QB making his first start. We have seen the Buccaneers offense struggle for most of the season, however, so a game where the Cardinals keep it close by pounding the rock with Conner is certainly a reasonable tributary on how that game may play out. As we know, defensive scoring is hard to predict, and simply embracing variance when it comes to DST can be a profitable strategy, especially on a short slate like Sunday, where I expect more than 50% of the ownership to congregate on the Bucs and Broncos.
I hope to see you and your OWS avatar at the top of a leaderboard come Sunday night.