Late Swap 14.22
StatATL is an OWS Fam grad who had multiple tournament wins last season that included a large field showdown for MNF and a $50,000 SE win. This season Billy has been hammering short slates and utilizing late swap. In this article, he’ll help you take advantage of late swap.
Need more late swap education? Read this free educational article on Late Swap
Outlook – Late Games:
Three of the ten total games fall into the late window this weekend, with only the Chiefs surpassing a 24-point Vegas implied team total. While KC is a ten-point road favorite, the two main offensive pieces (Mahomes and Kelce) carry hefty price tags. That said, I don’t expect heavy ownership around any of these three games, despite one offering some sneaky shootout potential (more on that later).
Overall, ownership should congregate around a few spots this week with the main decision point being how you account for Minnesota at Detroit. This game carries a 53 implied point total (a full touchdown more than the next highest) and features several strong on-paper plays. If your main stack on a roster is from the early games, such as the aforementioned MIN/DET matchup, I suggest a construction with at least one spot, preferably the Flex, saved for the afternoon games. This will allow you to block the most popular player if your early plays smash, or get contrarian with some of the options outlined below if your roster needs to play catch-up to get over the cash line.
Important Early Outcomes to Watch:
- Vikings and Lions skill position players – specifically Amon-Ra St. Brown, Justin Jefferson, D’Andre Swift, Dalvin Cook, and TJ Hockenson. All project to be in the top five in ownership at their position. Early projections have St. Brown as the highest-owned player on the slate as well as Goff and Cousins as the two highest-owned QBs.
- Cowboys – Pollard, Zeke, Lamb, and Schultz. Dallas is projected to win by three scores and this matchup features one of the only times all season a team has a 31+ Vegas implied team total.
- If Treylon Burks is inactive, I expect a strong performance from either Derrick Henry or Chig Okonkwo
- “Slate Breakers” – unexpected monster performances like Joe Mixon a few weeks ago
Price Range Breakdowns (Late Games):
$6,500 and up:
- DK Metcalf – Coming off his best performance of the year, Metcalf is priced the highest he’s been all season. He is top ten in the league for targets this season including 48 over his past five games.
- Travis Kelce – Ownership will likely be spread out at TE this week and while Denver presents a tough matchup, this doesn’t affect his ceiling. If shutdown corner Patrick Surtain is matched up with JuJu Smith-Schuster, this may create more looks for Kelce. Early projections have him at 12% ownership.
$5,500 – $6,400:
- Isiah Pacheco – Lead running back on a team favored to win by two scores. With CEH on IR, Pacheco has averaged 17.5 opportunities (rushes + targets) in the past 4 games. Projected at sub-5% ownership
$4,500 – $5,400:
- D’onta Foreman – Facing one of the league’s worst rush defenses, Foreman has 24 or more carries in 3 of his past 5 games. If you want an idea of the upside of this spot, go look back at what Josh Jacobs and Cam Akers did to this same Seattle defense the past two weeks.
- Jerry Jeudy – Has been an absolute world-beater against man coverage, averaging over 6 yards per route run. The next best are Chris Olave and Ja’Marr Chase, who both average less than 4 YPRR. With Sutton doubtful, this could be a sneaky spot for Jeudy as DEN will likely be playing catch-up.
- George Kittle – I can’t remember a time when Kittle was this cheap. He has put up 5x his current salary in terms of DK points twice in the past six games and should come in at sub-5% ownership.
- Greg Dulcich – A second Bronco for late swap consideration?! I know it’s gross, but KC should be leading and if Sutton is out, the “offense” gets even more condensed. Broncos coach Nathaniel Hackett said the team will be using Dulcich in a “wide receiver role”. Expect high ownership, however.
- 49ers ($3,200) – Should carry low ownership and have shown the ability to be the had-to-have-it defense for the week. The Niners are averaging over 12 DK points at home this year, despite playing high-powered offenses such as the Chiefs, Dolphins, Chargers, and Seahawks.
- Bucs ($2,900) – The Bucs are facing third-string QB Brock Purdy who will be making his first NFL start and are averaging over 3 sacks per game. Additionally, they have only given up over 23 points in a game twice all season.
- Seattle is my favorite stack to build around in the late window this week, as the offense is very concentrated. If Kenneth Walker is inactive, I would expect a slightly higher focus on the passing attack, and Geno has eclipsed 20 DK points in 7 of his past 10 starts. You can stack Geno with two of Jones/Homer, Fant, Lockett, and Metcalf in the hopes of capturing all the TDs. DJ Moore or D’onta Foreman make strong bring-back options at their salaries if building a game stack.
- Reiterating the need to be mindful of how you are accounting for the Vikings vs. Lions game if not stacking it. This game is head and shoulders ahead of the rest of the slate in terms of fantasy goodness, and the likelihood of it completely failing is very small.
- I would expect a vast majority of rosters to build almost completely around the early slate. If you build with late swap in mind leaving at least one player from the late window and your early bets flounder, my favorite plays to consider are Pacheco, Jeudy, or a SEA WR (if Walker and DeeJay Dallas are both inactive). If your early stacks smash, look to block the most popular play by rostering Dulcich.
- If your roster leaves both the FLEX and DST spots for the late slate, I’d recommend 49ers Def and Pacheco as placeholders as this will allow you good flexibility as you can always swap down to the Panthers (at $2,200) and use the extra salary for the flex spot (up to Godwin or Lockett). If we expect Seattle to be throwing more, this gives additional opportunities for sacks and interceptions for Carolina’s defense. Things could change, so as always, keep an eye on late-breaking news and remember to make sure your latest starting skill position player is in the FLEX spot.
I hope to see you and your OWS avatar at the top of a leaderboard this week!