Late Swap 13.23

StatATL has a math degree and a background as a financial analyst, and has blended an analytical, numbers-driven approach with an “OWS mindset” to rack up over $100,000 in lifetime DFS profit while maintaining low weekly buy-ins

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Outlook – Late Games:

Week 13 offers us a 10-game slate with the chalk roster construction seemingly obvious. From a macro perspective, we are seeing total RB ownership come in around 270%, meaning a vast majority of rosters are likely to play an RB in flex this week. We are also seeing four players projecting for 25% or more ownership (Zack Moss, Tyreek Hill, Christian McCaffrey, and Rachaad White), which gives a strong sense of how the field will construct their builds. We’ll discuss how we can leverage that knowledge more below with one of the two best games of the day coming in the afternoon window.

Important Early Outcomes to Watch:

• Zack Moss – The highest we’ve seen all season; Moss is likely to come in around 50% ownership (or higher in SE and small-field contests). He has a tough on paper matchup but is only $4,600. If he goes for 20+ points, he will be hard to win without, but if he fails, rosters without him will have a distinct advantage.   
• Miami Dolphins – The Dolphins have the best matchup on the slate and possess a very concentrated offense. They have a very small chance of failing so how you account for them (specifically Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Raheem Mostert) will be a key decision on the slate.
• Falcons DST – Atlanta is projecting to be the highest-owned DST unit on the slate, even though the game is in NY and the Falcons season high is 12 DK points. It’s one thing to play a high-owned, chalk defense when they are an elite unit with upside, it’s another thing to roster them when it’s the Falcons at $3,400 on the road… Slate Breakers – Such as Ja’Marr Chase’s 55 DK point performance in week 5 or CJ Stroud’s 46 points in week 9.

Price Range Breakdowns (Late Games):

$7,100 and up: