Late Swap 11.22
StatATL is an OWS Fam grad who had multiple tournament wins last season that included a large field showdown for MNF and a $50,000 SE win. This season Billy has been hammering short slates and utilizing late swap. In this article, he’ll help you take advantage of late swap.
Need more late swap education? Read this free educational article on Late Swap
Outlook – Late Games:
Three of the eleven total games fall into the late window this weekend with the DAL vs MIN game coming in as the 2nd highest environment in terms of Vegas implied point totals. I would expect heavy ownership on the key skill position players from this game. The two other late games feature less exciting game environments, but several intriguing pieces for one-off and/or late swap consideration. Overall, if your main bet/stack on a roster is from the early games, I like a construction with at least 2, preferably 3 pieces (which includes DST) saved for the afternoon games. This will allow you to block the popular pieces from the high owned DAL vs MIN game if your early plays smash or get contrarian with some of the options outlined below if your roster needs to play catch up to get over the cash line.
Important Early Outcomes to Watch:
- Justin Fields / David Montgomery
- Expensive, high owned RBs – Barkley, Mixon, Jacobs, and Kamara all project at or above 20%
- Cheap WR – In a week starved for value, thin plays such as Nico Collins, Parris Campbell and Garrett Wilson project for heavy ownership.
- Rhamondre Stevenson – Early projections have him north of 30% despite Damian Harris likely return.
- “Slate Breakers” – unexpected monster performances like Mixon a couple weeks ago
Price Range Breakdowns (Late Games):
$7,100 and up:
- Joe Mixon – Highest ceiling (never thought I’d type that) and range of outcomes from this group, but likely the highest ownership. Has seen 17 or more opportunities in every game but one this season. Can offset the ownership and stay unique by swapping to him but leaving salary on the table or as part of a game stack with Burrow and a Bengals pass catcher.
- Justin Jefferson – Most expensive player on the slate but projected for moderate ownership. Up against a Dallas defense that just allowed 35.7 DK points to Christian Watson last week. Cowboys side of the ball projects as more popular, so a strong pivot consideration if trailing.
- Adams/Jacobs – Over the last 2 weeks, Adams and Jacobs have combined for an absurd 68% of the offense’s usage (targets plus carries) and Renfrow and Waller are now on IR. Adams projects for low ownership and while Jacobs likely comes in over 20%; both have elite ceilings.
$6,000 – $7,000:
- Tyler Boyd – Ja’Marr Chase is still out and WRs have put up huge scores against Pittsburgh this season: AJ Brown 42.6, Gabe Davis 35.1 and Ja’Marr Chase 31.9 back in week 1.
- Tony Pollard – Zeke news will come late, and while he’s projected to play, if he’s out then Pollard becomes a strong pivot at lower ownership with most people using their RB slots early.
- Courtland Sutton – Sutton has 10+ targets in 44% of his games this season, and Jeudy and KJ Hamler are out. Parris Campbell and Christian Kirk both put up 20+ points against Vegas the past 2 weeks.
$5,000 – $5,900:
- George Pickens – Wide range of outcomes, but we have yet to see his ceiling game.
- Michael Gallup – Projecting for about 1/10 the ownership of both Lamb and Schultz. Target counts of 6 or more targets in three of his past four games.
- Kendall Hinton – Likely won’t get news until gameday, but if active, Hinton offers 4x-5x point per dollar upside with both KJ Hamler and Jerry Jeudy both already ruled out.
- KJ Osborn – 11 targets last week. Historically on the field for 80% of the offensive snaps and projected for 1% ownership.
- *Bonus – Wan’Dale Robinson – Not a late swap consideration, but my favorite leverage off a popular Barkley.
- Steelers ($2,300) – Likely to be the highest owned DST on the slate.
- Vikings ($2,400) – Offers leverage off the highest owned game as well as a direct pivot off Pittsburgh DST. Double digit points in 3 of the past 4 games. Averaging 4 sacks and 2 INT during that stretch.
- Bengals ($3,400) – Kenny Pickett has thrown 8 interceptions and been sacked 18 times in his 6 games this season. Bengals are projected for 3% ownership.
- Dak Prescott is projecting as one of the 4-5 highest owned QBs. Dak is likeliest to be paired with Ceedee Lamb (projected at 25%) or Schultz (projected at 19%). Dalvin Cook (projected at 5% ownership) and Vikings DEF offer direct leverage. If building a Dak, Lamb stack you may want to build with Bengals DEF to allow for a swap to Burrow and Boyd/Higgins, or Cousins and Jefferson (and PIT DEF).
- One of my favorite stacks on the week is some combination of Burrow, Boyd, Mixon & Hurst. The Steelers have been absolutely gashed twice this year by high octane offenses (Bills & Eagles), and while Cincy isn’t as explosive without Ja’marr Chase, they project for low combinatorial ownership. This also direct leverage off Steelers DST, who is projecting for the highest ownership at $2,300. Pickens is a natural bring back if building for a full game stack.
- Four of the top five TEs in Projected Ownership come from the three late games (Schultz, Dulcich, Freiermuth and Hurst), and optimizers are spitting out double TE builds. Getting different here may not involve late swap; simply playing only one TE (how novel!) from the early slate seems likely to be contrarian.
As always, keep an eye on late breaking news and remember to make sure your latest starting skill position player is in the FLEX spot.
I hope to see you and your OWS avatar at the top of a leaderboard this week!