Kyler Murray, Jordan Love, and Dak Prescott are going back-to-back in early drafting, which presents a bit of a conundrum for owners. If you’re on the clock, which one are you taking? Let’s discuss.
ADP: 7/8 round, 75 overall (per FantasyPros)
Kyler Murray missed the first nine games last season, but when he got back, he got to work. He ran the ball effectively, punching in a few touchdowns along the way, threw for 10 touchdowns (six of those came in the final three weeks), and averaged just over 20 fantasy points per game when he was on the field. He finished top 10 in almost half the games he played (3/8) and was top 15 in nearly all (6/8).
And that was with meh pass catchers (except Trey McBride’s swoon, and a mediocre offensive line in front of him. Recovering from a torn ACL is a pretty good return, considering his legs are his bread and butter. He’ll start this season fully recovered and with a lot of hype surrounding his 2024 season.
Did you watch the draft? Then you’re aware that the Cardinals landed WR Marvin Harrison Jr. in the first round and added RB Trey Benson two rounds later. Translation – new toys. Sprinkle some McBride and James Conner in there, and this offense is set to take strides this season.
I won’t say they’ll eat each week, but they’ll be capable. Plus, good things happen to our fantasy teams when Murray plays full seasons. His fantasy points per game finishes when (mostly) healthy:
Murray can get it done on both the ground and in the air, and he takes care of the football – zero fumbles lost and 5 interceptions on 8 interceptable passes (roughly 3% of his attempts), per Fantasy Data. The history is there. The offense is upgraded. I expect great things from Murray this season.
ADP: 7/8 round, 73 overall
I’ll quote myself from a previous article, as I know the source is reliable (smiley face emoji):
I actually watched quite a bit of Jordan Love football last year, and I’ll say I’m impressed. This kid makes major league throws with composure beyond his years. He has good size and speed, is efficient, and doesn’t turn the ball over. He’s more than just a game manager though, and I think with more time in this system, he progresses into an X factor that can and will win games. He’s effective at spreading the ball around, letting the game come to him, and taking what the defenses give him. This can function as a detriment to any one individual receiver aspiring to evolve into a top 10 at the position, however.
Love finished as overall QB6 last season (QB10 with 21.8 fantasy points per game) thanks in large part to this efficiency (98.0 red zone passer rating) and his ability to throw touchdown passes (32, good for second in the NFL). He will also kick in a rushing touchdown every four games or so, which doesn’t hurt. Love is the model of fantasy scoring consistency, registering at least 20 fantasy points in about 65% of games (11/17) with only one real clunker (Week 5, where he coincidentally threw 3 picks). With the continued development of his young wide receivers (of which he returns his top four) and with the addition of pro-bowler Josh Jacobs and rookie playmaker Marshawn Lloyd in the backfield (AJ Dillon will be a ghost this year, trust me), Love is poised for another fantastic season.
There’s not really much to add, so I’ll condense. QB10 on a points-per-game basis, another year of seasoning in the offense, the top four wideouts, and the top TE returning—there’s a lot to like here.
ADP: 7/8 round, 74 overall
Dak Prescott. I’m not sure any two words in the English vocabulary invoke a greater reaction – good and bad. In real life, people – and by people, I mean non-Cowboys fans – hate him. Some Dallas fans also do, as he’s failed to deliver a Super Bowl. But this is fantasy football, and we don’t play with our hearts (that’s Taylor and Travis’ job). Dak can get it done, period – overall QB3, QB6 on a points/game basis.
His last three full season averages – 4,622 yards and 34 tuddys. Speaking of full seasons, he has played in every game in six out of his eight campaigns. He finished last season as PFF’s fourth-ranked passer, with an overall offensive grade of 90.0 (87.0 as a passer). Other nuggets – 104.0 red zone rating, 34 “money throws” (completed passes requiring exceptional skill or athleticism as well as critical completions in clutch moments during the game), and 67 deep balls with a 49.2% accuracy – sixty-seven (said another way, 11.4% of the time). Thanks, Fantasy Data, for the data.
The weapons remain very similar and familiar to Dak – CeeDee Lamb is ALL-WORLD (Dak’s rating when targeting him last season was an absurd 125.7), the run game returns an old friend (hello, Zeke) to pair with the young Thundercats (I do like Dowdle this season), and Cooks and Ferguson are both back as well. And while Tyron Smith left via free agency, they added a few big fellas through the draft (Tyler Guyton, Cooper Beebe, and Nathan Thomas) to return a probable top-10 unit.
Seven top 3 and eight top 10 finishes sound pretty amazing, though inconsistency can be a thing here (no better than 14th in the other nine games). He runs the football rarely, so don’t expect much here (but neither does Love; Kyler does, though). Dak has a serious upside: a top 5 fantasy quarterback again in an elite passing offense is absolutely on the table.
I kind of love all three and wouldn’t hate my life if any of them ended up on my roster. In fact, I’m actually quite excited they’re all going R7/R8, which allows me to stack at other positions and catch a differencemaker at QB later. If I’m on the clock, which is the point of all my babbling (thank you, if you made it this far), I go, Murray, Prescott, Love – in that order. I love Murray’s upside this season, and he adds so much value through his rushing ability. Plus, his per game is a little more consistent than Dak’s. Prescott will blow up some weeks but can disappear when you need him. The Dak/CeeDee stack would have me salivating, so if you have that opportunity, you take it. But for this season, give me Murray’s upside and scoring consistency.
