JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat) who is focusing this year on single-entry/three-entry max
This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing
:: covered in-depth in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”)
:: my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; these players have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure
:: games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters
:: unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters
:: players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective
Full breakdown (of what this is, and what the thinking is behind these players) can (and should) be found in the Angles Pod (above).
Build with a salary cap of $44k or below!
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If we take away the carries that James Cook banked in the Bills’ blowout win over the Titans, Bills running backs are averaging under 13 carries per game. Said differently: Josh Allen is essentially “the entire offense” for the Bills, and any upside that this offense generates is typically attached to him. The only way Josh Allen “fails” is if the Bills just have an awful offensive showing, and every time they have a big game, this is likely to correlate with a big game from Allen as well. We often talk about giving ourselves fewer things we need to get right in order to win a tourney — and when we talk about this, it’s often in the context of “betting on multiple players from a single offense so that we capture the available upside if that offense hits.” Another way to give ourselves “fewer things we need to get right,” however, is by simply betting on players who have an ultra-high probability of success. If these players land on the positive side of their range of outcomes, that’s one (easy) spot on our roster taken care of, leaving us with fewer things we need to get right from there.
New this year: these are unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters
“Davante beats the Broncos’ secondary and forces the Denver offense to get aggressive early,” OR “The Broncos’ offense finally gets things going, and Davante is able to beat the Broncos’ secondary in response”
Russ is coming in around 1% to 2% ownership, Jeudy is coming in under 5% ownership, and Davante is currently (Friday evening) projected for 6.5% ownership; if you start your roster here and this one hits, you’re practically in the money already, and you don’t have to worry too deeply about strategy on the rest of your roster.
Look. I get it. The Broncos have been highly disappointing so far this year. But do we believe there will be games this season in which the Broncos score 30+ points? In fact…do we believe that if we played this season four or five times, there would be games in which the Broncos would score 30+ points? Given the massive ownership discount we are seeing here, this play is very obviously +EV (that is to say: if we could play out this slate over and over again with these ownership numbers, there would be enough times in which the Broncos would be the “had to have it” offense — or better yet, enough times in which Russ + Jeudy would score 60+ combined points — that you would make money over time with this setup). The difficult part about pulling the trigger here, of course, is that it’s still a lower-percentage bet than some of the other bets you can make this week. Given where ownership is likely to flow, however, this one stands out as incredibly sharp in tourneys of all sizes — assuming you can stomach the uncertainty that comes with this play.
Note: Darren Waller also works nicely here, if you want to swap him in for Davante Adams.
The story plays out differently, and you don’t get first place — which is really all that matters.
This is my narrowest pool, which means it’s the pool likeliest to change a bit as I move deeper into builds. If it changes throughout Saturday night, I’ll add an update in this space.
If I were building for single-entry // three-entry Max, my tightened-up player pool would be:
Josh Allen || Jalen Hurts || Russell Wilson
I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!