JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate
This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing
:: covered in-depth in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”)
:: my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; these players have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure
:: games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters
:: unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters
:: players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective
:: a new category for 2024! — these are players who are not going to be “featured” on my tighter builds (i.e., one could show up on a tighter build, but they are not being prioritized as such), but who I will be mixing and matching across some portion of my MME builds
Full breakdown (of what this is, and what the thinking is behind these players) can (and should) be found in the Angles Pod (on the One Week Season podcast feed).
Jordan Love
Bucky Irving
Alexander Mattison
Davante Adams
Kavonte Turpin
Dontayvion Wicks
Tucker Kraft
T.J. Hockenson
Raiders
Free
Build with a salary cap of $44k or below!
1st Place = 150 Edge Points + Rare Blue Name Tag in Discord
2nd Place = 75 Edge Points
3rd Place = 40 Edge Points
*1 Edge Point = $1 in DFS courses on OWS
Based on matchup, usage, and performance over the last couple years, it’s fair to peg Josh Jacobs, Jonathan Taylor, De’Von Achane, James Cook, etc., with “percentage chances of scoring 27+ DK points” of 15% to 25% this week. Meanwhile, Saquon has hit for 27+ (29+, actually) in seven of 15 games this season; and against an up-and-down run defense, with the game plan sure to run through him, it’s fair to say he would hit in this spot a good 40% of the time. Is 40% the same as 100%? Of course not. You understand what we’re trying to do in DFS: position ourselves to benefit from the math of the slate. That doesn’t mean we’ll be right every time, but it does mean we’ll be right over time. On this small, RB-thin slate, playing Saquon would be right over time. He’s not a “must play” on this side of Sunday (i.e., he could post a had-to-have it score, of course; but he also has a disappointing outcome within his range of outcomes), but he is a sharp way to attack.
“The cold never bothered me anyway”
In Miami’s last nine games, Tua + Achane has kept you on at least a 153-point DK pace seven times.
In Miami’s last nine games, Tua + Achane has kept you on at least a 163-point DK pace six times.
In Miami’s last nine games, Tua + Achane has kept you on at least a 182-point DK pace three times.
Compare that floor/ceiling range to most individual options this week, and this pairing stands out in a huge way. Josh Jacobs and Justin Jefferson, for example, have each kept you on a 150-point pace in only 20% of their games this year (and that’s just covering one roster spot, instead of two). Until you dig into the numbers, it’s hard to appreciate just how rare it is to find a player who can be said to have kept you on a 180+-point pace in 33% of games, and Tua + Achane have done this over their last nine games while covering two spots on your roster. This is hugely valuable.
The best part? People won’t want to play Tua in a northern, outdoor, December game. But it’s not supposed to be that cold in Cleveland this week, and the expected rain shouldn’t have a huge impact on a team that focuses primarily on short-area throws. Furthermore, the Dolphins have tumbled all the way down to 28th in run offense DVOA, and have stuck with their passing attack even in blowouts recently (Tua threw the ball 36 and 40 times in easy wins over the Raiders and Patriots). We shouldn’t expect DTR to hold up his end of the bargain…and that may not matter for the Tua/Achane combo. On this ugly week, this ugly-seeming pairing is really, really interesting.
One thing we can’t reasonably expect from this pairing is a 225-point pace. This pairing has a great shot at keeping you on a 160-point pace or higher, with a better shot than most available options on the slate for 175+. On this small, thin slate, this gains more power than it would typically have, but you’ll still want to treat this as your “floor starting point” rather than treating this as the play that will win you a tourney. Build in additional upside from here, and be willing to take one or two risks away from this pairing. This pairing, of course, works best in small-field play; but given the unique shape of this week’s slate, it has potential to matter even in larger contests.
The story plays out differently, and you don’t get first place — which is really all that matters.
A look at some of the rules I’ll be applying in the Bink Machine this week.
I’ve poked around and poked around, but I’m not finding any unique opto rules this week. If I come across any unique little edges, I’ll pass them along in the Sunday Morning Update.
This is my narrowest pool, which means it’s the pool likeliest to change a bit as I move deeper into builds. If it changes throughout Saturday night, I’ll add an update in this space.
If I were building for single-entry // three-entry Max, my tightened-up player pool would be:
Sam Darnold || Jordan Love || Baker Mayfield || Bryce Young || Tua Tagovailoa
I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!
-JM
