JM’s Player Grid 14.24
JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate
OWS Fam ::
This is not a complete list of all the good plays on the slate
This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing
The Grid ::
Bottom-Up Build
:: covered in-depth in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”)
Blue Chips
:: my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; these players have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure
Build-Arounds
:: games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters
Building Blocks
:: unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters
Bonuses
:: players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective
Beta
:: a new category for 2024! — these are players who are not going to be “featured” on my tighter builds (i.e., one could show up on a tighter build, but they are not being prioritized as such), but who I will be mixing and matching across some portion of my MME builds
Bottom-Up Build
Full breakdown (of what this is, and what the thinking is behind these players) can (and should) be found in the Angles Pod (on the One Week Season podcast feed).
Bottom-Up Build
DK Salary Remaining :: $6.1K
Aidan O’Connell
Saquon Barkley
Isaac Guerendo
Jakobi Meyers
Calvin Austin
Michael Wilson
Ja’Tavion Sanders
Darnell Mooney
Saints
Join The Bottom-Up Build Contest On DraftKings!
Buy-In:
Free
Rules:
Build with a salary cap of $44k or below!
Prizes:
1st Place = 150 Edge Points + Rare Blue Name Tag in Discord
2nd Place = 75 Edge Points
3rd Place = 40 Edge Points
*1 Edge Point = $1 in DFS courses on OWS
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*must use an OWS avatar (found on your profile page) to be eligible to win
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Sunday Morning Update
Start Here
This is a unique week, where the structure of the slate gives us some very unique pathways/decisions in our quest for a first-place finish. Understanding these components will be critical in maximizing your expected value this week.
If you read my DFS Interpretations this week, you found the following writeup at the top of the Jets // Dolphins game.
If you did not read my DFS Interpretations this week, I would strongly recommend reading the following writeup before reading the rest of my Player Grid.
- What wins a tournament this week? Isaac Guerendo is 6’0″/220, ran a 4.33 40, is averaging 5.9 yards per carry on 42 totes, and is stepping into a lead running back role on the 49ers against a Bears defense that ranks 30th in run defense DVOA. (Guerendo has been given only five pass-blocking snaps all year, where he doesn’t seem to be trusted; but given the lack of options available to the 49ers and the matchup on tap, this is likely to result in them A) leaning more on the run, and B) using Guerendo on a route on pass plays while scheming protection in other ways.) Saquon Barkley is playing the Panthers — a team that is still attackable on the ground, and that has improved enough on offense to potentially position the Eagles’ starters to be playing deep into the fourth quarter. Bucky Irving still split snaps with Rachaad White last week, but White took over the last three series after Bucky got dinged up, while Bucky had 24 carries to eight for White before a hip issue slowed him down; Bucky is playing the Raiders this week in a game the Bucs are likely to control. Alvin Kamara is not on a great offense, but the Saints are not only missing Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, but are also now missing Taysom Hill — opening the door for a potentially monster workload against the Giants. Tony Pollard is in a good bounce-back spot vs the Jags; the Bills should score points vs the Rams, bringing James Cook into play; the Rams could keep this game close vs the Bills, keeping Kyren in the mix. And we can only play three running backs on a roster…and if we play three running backs, we can only play one tight end, on a week in which ::
- Brock Bowers (two games of 33+ DK points in his last three; double-digit targets in six of eight) is playing a Bucs defense that faces the fifth highest opponent pass play rate and ranks 31st in DVOA vs tight ends;
- Trey McBride (three games of double-digit targets in his last five; 21+ DK points in all three) is playing a Seattle defense he torched for 28.3 DK points two weeks ago, without scoring a touchdown;
- George Kittle (five games of 20+ DK points this year — more than any other tight end on this slate) is taking on a Chicago defense that is fundamentally susceptible to tight ends;
- David Njoku (two games of 14+ targets with Jameis Winston under center for all or part of the game) has Jameis Winston under center.
- At quarterback, we have only two players priced above $6.4k, with no one at $6.4k and below standing out as a strong bet for 25+ points, and with Jalen Hurts unlikely to have to throw much vs the Panthers, leaving us with Josh Allen as the clearest bet for 30+ at the position vs the Rams — though he’s only gotten there twice this year (and he hasn’t gotten there since Week 3). Pair this with thin value at wide receiver and tight end, clear priorities at running back and tight end, and no high-priced wide receivers who really stand out (A.J. Brown is $8.1k in a matchup where the Eagles probably won’t have to throw much || Justin Jefferson is $7.8k in a matchup where he’s unlikely to finally spike for a heavy-usage game || Puka ($7.7k) and Kupp ($7.0k) are playing a Bills team allowing the fourth fewest fantasy points per game to wideouts || Mike Evans is $7.2k against a Raiders team that is solid against the pass and gets attacked relentlessly on the ground || Tyreek Hill is facing a Jets team allowing the fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers), and we have a week in which “not getting beat by the field at running back and tight end” is likely to be critical, and in which finding a (potentially unique) way to outscore the field at QB/WR will likely be difference-making.
- When I say “not getting beat by the field at running back and tight end,” what I mean is :: there are enough solid options at these positions that the field, in general, should do well at these spots. If we get too cute at these spots, our likeliest “best case” is that we match what the field is getting, while taking on more risk.
- When I say “finding a (potentially unique) way to outscore the field at QB/WR,” I mean that nothing really stands out (outside of Jakobi Meyers — which we’ll get to in a bit); but if we expect RB/TE/FLEX to be spots where we’re ideally “keeping pace with the field,” then our edge on this slate is likely to be “nailing a QB/WR stack” or “a game environment bet” that springboards us over everyone else who is also doing well at RB/TE/FLEX. I’ll be exploring this week’s slate through that lens.
- Before we dive into this game (and other games), a quick final note :: just because this is how the slate shapes up doesn’t mean this is how the slate will play out. With so many strong running backs in play, it’s likely that some two- or three-RB combo from the group of obvious guys will do well enough to keep you on a tourney-winning pace — but you can bet against this scenario and try to win at this position. Same goes for tight end. Maybe all the higher-priced tight ends fail, and just doing something differently than the field will prove to provide an edge. You can consider these angles as well. But in terms of “what’s likeliest to happen” :: we have a large enough volume of “sharp running back plays” and “sharp tight end plays” that it’s +EV to assume that picking from this pool of obvious options is the way to go, while looking for ways to separate at your stacks // game environment bets. I’ll primarily be exploring the slate this week through this lens.
Blue Chips
Saquon Barkley
From the “Fly Eagles Fly” Bink Machine rule below ::
Remarkably, Saquon has scored 29+ DraftKings points in six of 12 games this year (36+ in five of 12!), and now he’s playing the Panthers. If Saquon has scored 29+ in 50% of games this year, it’s fair to say he has a better-than-50% chance of scoring 29+ in this spot. (You could say the same about his 42% hit rate of 36+-point scores.)
So…yeah. Find me another player on the slate whose 2024 track record indicates he might have a 40+% chance of scoring 36 points this week.
Just because Saquon sets up great this week doesn’t mean he’s “guaranteed to hit”; but especially with the field not prioritizing him the way they should in this spot, he’s massively, massively +EV. If we could play out this slate a hundred times, we would gain quite a bit of edge by just playing Saquon on every roster across that stretch.
“Light Blue” Chips
Build-Arounds
Building Blocks
“Base Layer”
Saquon + Guerendo + Jakobi or Bowers
Story:
“What’s likeliest to happen happens”
Why It Works:
I explored this in my writeup at “the top” of my DFS Interpretations (the same writeup that’s at the top of the Player Grid), and I dove deep into the thoughts/thesis around this in the Angles Pod; but basically, it’s fair to assume that a maximum of 5% of the field will have all three of Saquon // Guerendo // Jakobi on a roster together, and that a similar percentage of the field will have all three of Saquon // Guerendo // Bowers. Meanwhile, Saquon is the (easy) odds-on favorite to post the highest DK score on the slate, Guerendo has pretty clear pathways to scoring 14+ even if he underwhelms, and can easily go for 25, and (see my “Silver & Black” Bink Machine writeup) we have a really good chance this week of getting a strong score from at least one of Jakobi/Bowers. I see this starting point as extremely +EV — especially on a week where there are plenty of flaws with any/all of the game environments and/or stacks you could target. Something will hit at QB // pass catchers, of course; but as explored in the Angles Pod :: you could just about throw a dart at the group of viable plays and be as likely to land on the right spot as you would be through deep research and logical thought. With that in mind, and with the elevated certainty at these other three spots, and with the fact that most of the field will not be starting from this same point, I’m considering it to be massively +EV to just start from this point.
This is the only block from me this week, because I’m hand-building (SE/3-Max) and probably starting every roster from this point — which means the rest of my roster will get filled out with 2-4 pieces accounted for by my QB decision, and the rest will probably be determined by remaining salary.
As I’ve said in several spots this week :: this is not “the only +EV way to build on this week.” This is one very clear +EV way to build, and it’s the way I’ll be building — but balance my thoughts with your own, and with others whose content you trust, to find the best path for you.
How It Works:
Current ownership projections have all four of these guys (Saquon // Guerendo // the two Raiders) around 20%. Some simple math, then :: if Guerendo were on 20% of rosters, and Saquon were on 20% of those, only 4% of the tourney field would have these two together. From there, less than 1% of rosters would have one of Jakobi // Bowers. Now, I think this is low. I think Guerendo will end up closer to 40% ownership. And I think Saquon will climb over 20%. Also, OWS will boost the ownership of this block on our own. But even with that, it’s hard to see either version of this combo being on more than 5% of rosters — and 5% is probably high. With that in mind, I won’t be too worried about “getting different” outside this block. Any stack or approach you choose from here will naturally shed even more ownership, so it’s really just about “trying to get things right” and “maximizing points” if you begin a roster with this block.
POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE:
The story plays out differently, and you don’t get first place — which is really all that matters.
Bink Machine
A look at some of the rules I’ll be applying in the Bink Machine this week.
Silver & Black
Across the Raiders’ last five games, Bowers has disappointed at cost three times, scoring 10.8 // 15.5 // 7.8. In those games, Jakobi has performed well at cost, scoring 17.2 // 21.5 // 25.1. We also have two games in this stretch in which Jakobi disappointed at cost, scoring 8.8 // 15.7 (not a major disappointment, really; but you see what we’re getting at here). In those games, Bowers posted DK scores of 34.3 // 33.2. These two are absolutely central to the Las Vegas passing attack, and this week the Raiders are playing a Bucs team that faces the league’s fifth highest opponent pass play rate and should be playing from in front. Volume should fall in favor of these two this week; and on a week without a lot of certainty at pass catcher positions, it’s highly probable that one of these two posts a strong score. I like the idea of leaning into this by playing one or the other on nearly every roster. This rule says, “On at least 80% of rosters, play one to two of Bowers // Jakobi.” I won’t play these two together unless I have Aidan O’Connell (the “2” in “Max” is to allow for that), but splitting these guys across rosters is a sharp way to attack this week.
Fly Eagles Fly
Remarkably, Saquon has scored 29+ DraftKings points in six of 12 games this year (36+ in five of 12!), and now he’s playing the Panthers. If Saquon has scored 29+ in 50% of games this year, it’s fair to say he has a better-than-50% chance of scoring 29+ in this spot. (You could say the same about his 42% hit rate of 36+-point scores.) But if he fails to produce in this spot, it’s probably not from the Eagles disappointing as an offense; instead, it’s probably from Hurts soaking up some rushing scores that steal points from Saquon. I don’t expect Hurts to see heavy passing volume here, so I actually prefer Hurts naked over “Hurts with a stacking partner,” but the idea of playing Hurts on non-Saquon rosters holds plenty of weight. In the Eagles’ last seven games, Saquon has had three games of sub-29 points :: 15.1 // 8.8 // 22.7. In those games, Hurts has posted scores of 35.1 // 31.7 // 17.6. As you can see :: “Saquon underwhelming has a good chance of meaning Hurts hitting” (and the one week in which this didn’t hold was a very different setup vs Baltimore, and Saquon still posted 22.7). A roster with neither of these guys is a bet on either A) the Panthers shutting down the Eagles, or B) you feeling confident that you can catch similar scores to these guys at cheaper price tags. Those are not bets I want to make. This rule says, “On 80% of all rosters, play one of these two guys.” The only reason this rule says “80%” instead of “100%” is because I like to leave myself outs in MME play. For hand-builds (SE/3-Max), I’ll expect to have one of these guys on 100% of builds.
HOF
There are several players who could slot in place of JJ with this rule, but the basic idea here is that I don’t necessarily want to play JJ (or Kamara, or Achane, etc.) at the cost of playing Saquon, as doing so is effectively a bet on these guys outscoring Saquon. (Yes, these guys are cheaper than Saquon — but they are in the same price range; and if playing one of these guys prevents you from playing Saquon, then this is the bet you’re effectively placing. Of course, this is fine if you think these guys are favorites to outscore Saquon; but you should realize that this is the bet you are placing.) This rule says, “on at least 80% of Justin Jefferson rosters, include Saquon Barkley.” (As with recent weeks, I don’t expect to play MME myself, as I’ve been enjoying a shift to hand-building SE/3-Max of late; but if I were playing MME, I would also expect Hurts to be on most of my non-Saquon JJ rosters.)
Bonuses
If Building For Single-Entry // Three-Entry Max
This is my narrowest pool, which means it’s the pool likeliest to change a bit as I move deeper into builds. If it changes throughout Saturday night, I’ll add an update in this space.
If I were building for single-entry // three-entry Max, my tightened-up player pool would be:
QB ::
Sam Darnold (& Kirk Cousins) || Josh Allen (& Matthew Stafford) || Kyler Murray || Jalen Hurts || Aidan O’Connell || Jameis Winston
RB ::
A Wrap ::
I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!
-JM
