JM’s Player Grid 1.24
JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate
OWS Fam ::
This is not a complete list of all the good plays on the slate
This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing
The Grid ::
Bottom-Up Build
:: covered in-depth in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”)
Blue Chips
:: my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; these players have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure
Build-Arounds
:: games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters
Building Blocks
:: unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters
Bonuses
:: players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective
Beta
:: a new category for 2024! — these are players who are not going to be “featured” on my tighter builds (i.e., one could show up on a tighter build, but they are not being prioritized as such), but who I will be mixing and matching across some portion of my MME builds
Sunday Morning Update:
Most weeks, very little has changed for me between publication of the Player Grid and the last few hours leading up to kickoff, but I always drop an update to the top of the Player Grid (usually before 6 or 7 AM Eastern — though sometimes it comes closer to kickoff); something for you to keep an eye out for each week.
If you want to know when new content is posted, you can turn on notifications for the New Content channel in Discord.
My QB pool has expanded to include Justin Fields, but nothing else has changed :: Josh Allen at the top, with a second tier of exposure consisting of Richardson // Jayden // Fields // Darnold // Herbert. Most of my single-entry/three-max rosters will be pulled from this group.
In order to fit Fields, I had to remove a few of my lower-exposure QBs, but I won’t go into detail on which guys I removed, as nothing has changed in my thoughts on anyone; I just had to make some hard decisions.
Actually, I guess I can go into detail on who I kept, as Daniel Jones, Kyler, and Minshew were all kept specifically because of my exposure to Darnold // Allen // Herbert, and I’m also not going to miss an opportunity to dedicate 6% of my builds to that Cowboys/Browns game (likely to be low-scoring, but as noted throughout the week: it has tantalizing shootout potential if things break the right way). Trevor Lawrence (getting exposure to a QB in that game environment) is the other guy I managed to keep.
At RB, I added Mixon to my pool of high-exposure RBs. I caught onto this play during my Solo Ship pod with Squirrel Patrol. (Shoutout to him for that call.) As I’ve talked about throughout the week: scoring at the running back position is generally pretty flat, so the first rule is “don’t beat yourself” by taking a dud (most particularly at the same price point as the more obvious/popular plays), and the second rule is “give yourself exposure to floor, and hope ceiling hits from there.” Mixon has roughly the same expected floor/ceiling/consistency range as more popular guys priced around him, which means that if he misses, he probably won’t kill you, and if he hits, he could provide a nice edge over the higher-owned guys. He’s also a great hedge off Texans pass catchers (to whom I still have plenty of exposure). Joining Mixon among my higher-owned backs, as expected, are Conner // Rachaad // Achane. I have 20% to 30% of all three of these guys. The only other running back I have notable exposure to (10%) is Mostert. I’ve added small amounts of exposure to Kenneth Walker, Jaleel McLaughlin, and Rico Dowdle, but nothing noteworthy.
My highest-exposure WRs are Shakir // Tyreek // Ladd // Nabers in Tier 1, followed by Jefferson // Palmer // Mike Evans in Tier 2. Others with double-digit ownership on my end :: McLaurin // Nico // Tank Dell // AD Mitchell // Curtis Samuel // Diontae // Pickens // Kirk. I’m currently rolling 6% Iosavis, 6% Trenton Irwin, and 6% Gesicki.
I still feel Engram is the best tight end play (though probably not the most +EV, given that his ownership will be higher than it should be), and I’ll have him on just under 20% of rosters (all paired with Dolphins pieces). Dalton Kincaid is the only other guy I have double-digit ownership of (12%), with a complete mix-and-match behind these guys. Names added to my list since the Player Grid was published :: Pat Freiermuth (4%, paired with Fields/Pickens) // Taysom Hill (6%) // Juwan Johnson (4% — both these Saints pieces are being played exclusively opposite Diontae, to create a lower-owned way of playing him) // Jonnu (6%) // Mundt (8% — mostly with Darnold and JJ or with Darnold and Addison) // Dulcich (on my list then off my list then back on it; 4%).
If Russ ends up starting, I’ll probably hand-alter my Fields rosters — switching a few over to Russ, and switching the rest to the QBs I’m primarily focused on.
I’m going to bed for a few hours, and I may move a few final pieces around on my rosters before kickoff, but this gives you a good idea of where my head is at heading into Sunday.
Bink Machine Users:
My rules have been uploaded to the Bink Machine, if you want to check them out. Remember to save your own rules before you do that!
Bottom-Up Build
Full breakdown (of what this is, and what the thinking is behind these players) can (and should) be found in the Angles Pod (on the One Week Season podcast feed).
Bottom-Up Build
DK Salary Remaining :: $6.0K
Sam Darnold
J.K. Dobbins
Javonte Williams
Jordan Addison
Ladd McConkey
Rome Odunze
Dalton Kincaid
Malik Nabers
Texans
Join The Bottom-Up Build Contest On DraftKings!
Buy-In:
Free
Rules:
Build with a salary cap of $44k or below!
Prizes:
1st Place = 150 Edge Points + Rare Blue Name Tag in Discord
2nd Place = 75 Edge Points
3rd Place = 40 Edge Points
*1 Edge Point = $1 in DFS courses on OWS
<< Join Here >>
*must use an OWS avatar (found on your profile page) to be eligible to win
Blue Chips
Josh Allen
The Cardinals come into the season as PFF’s 32nd-graded defensive line, linebacking unit, and secondary (ouch), and Josh Allen comes into the season having heard all the questions about whether or not this offense is capable of being elite without Stefon Diggs. The Bills’ coaches have had extra time to prepare for this game, and last year the Bills scored 30+ points seven times in 19 games, with only one of those games being close on the scoreboard (i.e., they don’t need a shootout in order to score 30+ points; they are one of the rare NFL teams that is happy to score as quickly and consistently as they can, regardless of what the opponent is doing). It’s highly unlikely the Bills “fail” in this spot; and while that doesn’t guarantee a monster game from individual Bills pieces, it does mean you’re unlikely to get rekt for playing these guys, and there’s a good chance the Bills prove to be really valuable pieces.
Tyreek Hill
As we often say: 30-point scores are valuable, no matter how much you paid for them. It’s rare that you get more than a handful of 30-point scores on a given DFS weekend, and while 30 points at Tyreek’s price tag won’t kill you if you miss it, it ALWAYS helps a roster to have exposure to that type of score.
Last year, Tyreek scored 30+ in six of 17 games, and scored 25.8+ in nine of 17 games. His chances of “burying you for not having had him” aren’t massive in this spot (i.e., you probably won’t get punished for having rosters without him); but if you can fit him, he’s likely to be a great addition to your roster.
“Light Blue” Chips
Build-Arounds
Building Blocks
“So Obvious, It’s Hidden”
Herbert + Ladd + Palmer
Story:
“Herbert throws for 300 yards and three scores”
Why It Works:
Is Herbert “more likely” than some other QBs on the slate to score 25 to 30 DK points? No, he’s not. But if he DOES score 25 to 30 DK points, do we know who will benefit? Absolutely! I talked about this in DFS Interpretations, in the Block Party with Pete Overzet, and in the Angles Pod (search “One Week Season” on your favorite podcast player), so I won’t belabor the point here. But basically, the “first bet” (the “directional bet”) is not as likely to hit in this spot as some other spots you could isolate, which makes this appear to have a lower expected value than it has. And the reason it has a high expected value (i.e., if we could play out this slate 100 times, this block would make you a lot of money) is because the second bet down the line is HEAVILY correlated with the first bet. If the Texans have a big game through the air, any one of three or four guys could benefit. If the 49ers have a big game on offense, CMC might be the only guy who hits (at a much lower score than you would really like at his price tag), or maybe Deebo has a solid game, or maybe Aiyuk does, or maybe Kittle does…or maybe one of those latter three goes for a score you “had to have” in order to win. The second bet down the line is important to think about. And in this spot, if Herbert has a big game, it’s probably NOT because Quentin Johnston and Hayden Hurst and Will Dissly are popping off. Over the course of the season, I expect Herbert to average 32 to 35 pass attempts per game; and if he does, Ladd and Palmer should combine to average 14 to 18 targets per game. This means that both guys will see a repricing over the next four to six weeks…which means both guys are currently very underpriced. This three-player block should go overlooked, and it can return extreme value if it hits.
How It Works:
There will probably be two times this season (possibly three) when we see Herbert + Palmer + Ladd go for around 80 DraftKings points. If that happens this week, at low ownership and a total price tag of $15.7k, you’ll be way ahead of the field. However, you’ll still probably need a couple more explosive scores to truly take down a tourney. I’ll remain aggressive with other spots on my Herbert doubles this week.
POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE:
The story plays out differently, and you don’t get first place — which is really all that matters.
“All The Offense”
Bink Machine
A look at some of the rules I’ll be applying in the Bink Machine this week.
“If Stroud”
Stroud topped 28 DK points two times last year. (Hint: that’s not a lot.) If he’s hitting for a tourney-winning score this week (30+ points), it’s almost certainly because the Colts are also putting up points. And if the Colts are also putting up points, doesn’t it stand to reason that a “do it all” QB (Anthony Richardson) at a much lower price tag is likely to be a better way to spend salary in this spot? Said differently: the story in which it makes sense to roster Stroud over Richardson is almost certainly A) The Colts score a lot of points, stimulating a shootout environment, and B) Anthony Richardson is not the guy scoring those points (which means Jonathan Taylor almost certainly is).
I may not end up with any Stroud this week; but if I do, this will be a hard-and-fast rule for me. “On 100% of rosters that have Stroud, also include Jonathan Taylor.”
“Falcons Mix-&-Match”
You know the drill: there’s a good chance this is a concentrated offense, and there’s a good chance this is also a productive offense. A matchup against the Steelers isn’t the best spot, so I won’t go TOO hard on this in Week 1, but I definitely want exposure. This rule says, “On 40% or rosters, include exactly one player from this pool.”
“Houston Mix-&-Match”
You know the drill: there’s a good chance one of these guys hits for 25+, with potential for 35+. If that happens, I’ll want exposure to that score. This rule says, “On 45% of rosters, include exactly one player from this pool.”
“Chargers Mix-&-Match”
Rule 1 says “on 60% of rosters, include at least one of Ladd // Palmer, and as many as 2.”
Rule 2 says, “if I have BOTH Ladd and Palmer on a roster, include a QB from this game.”
I’ve talked about this throughout the week, but the basic gist: I expect Herbert to average 32 to 35 pass attempts per game. That could include some 28-attempt games, and some 40-attempt games, but if he lands in that range, then Ladd/Palmer will likely land in a range of 14-18 combined targets per game. If that’s the case, both of these guys will carry higher price tags a month from now, with one likely in the high-$5ks, and the other likely in the low-$6ks. It’s great Week 1 value with a high floor/ceiling combo.
Bonuses
If Building For Single-Entry // Three-Entry Max
This is my narrowest pool, which means it’s the pool likeliest to change a bit as I move deeper into builds. If it changes throughout Saturday night, I’ll update you at the top of the Player Grid on Sunday morning.
If I were building for single-entry // three-entry Max, my tightened-up player pool would be:
QB ::
Josh Allen || Vikings // Giants (Mostly Darnold; some Daniel Jones) || Anthony Richardson || Jayden Daniels || Justin Herbert
RB ::
A Wrap ::
I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!
-JM
