Jags @ Jets
DFS Showdown Strategy
The way this game is likeliest to play out is a slower, run-heavy affair in the rain and wind. The Jets have the much better defense, while the Jags have the edge on offense, but quarterback aside, I think it’s a fairly minor one. I was actually surprised New York wasn’t favored in this one, but maybe Zach Wilson just means automatic underdog every game (hard to argue with that, really). The weather creates some interesting ways this one could go, though.
- Weather, on the whole, adds volatility – wet fields mean guys slip, and wind means passes go off course (could be incompletions, could be interceptions). I think the field is going to attack this game in a pretty predictable way, and one way that plays out is that in games with very close spreads, we see 5-1 onslaught builds be underplayed. They’re viable both ways here.
- I expect the weather is going to spike up running back ownership, so perhaps the easiest way to differentiate is to just build around the passing games.
In cash games, my player pool consists of the quarterbacks, running backs, Moore, and then something like Corey Davis or Conklin as a value option (assuming the weather still looks crappy; I’m also likely to avoid kickers in cash but I may be willing to play a DST).
In tournaments, I expect the highest owned captains to be Knight and Etienne, and while they’re definitely viable, I want to focus my captain exposure on Wilson, Kirk, Moore, and Jones in that order.
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