After their playoff run in 2022, many fantasy managers assumed that the Jaguars would make a deep run in 2023, only to see the Houston Texans raise their game and become the class of the AFC South. Now, the Jaguars are faced with the unenviable task of trying to catch a team on the rise (the Texans) with a roster that seems to have a lot of good but not great players.
Often, there is a big difference between fantasy and reality. Reality-wise, Lawrence may be a very good quarterback, but fantasy-wise, he’s not as good as people think he is. Last year he only had two games of more than 300 passing yards and only had six games where he threw for two touchdown passes or more. Had you had Lawrence on your team for the first 12 weeks of last season, there would be a 90% chance you wouldn’t make the playoffs based on his performance alone. Is Lawrence going to be worth the huge contract extension he just signed without his best receiver, Calvin Ridley, who is now on the Titans? I like Lawrence way more as a QB2 than I do as a QB1.
Doug Peterson has talked all offseason about getting other running backs involved because he knew that he was given Etienne too many touches. But Tank Bigsby has been so horrible that it seems incredulous to think that Etienne won’t get as many touches as last season. Etienne’s value is cemented in Round 2, and it should stay there between now and the start of the season.
With Calvin Ridley in Tennessee, expect to see Kirk regain his WR1 status. He’s not the flashiest receiver or the most explosive, but he runs terrific routes and seems to have an excellent rapport with Lawrence. He should be going somewhere around Round 6, which makes him an excellent WR2 in most leagues.
Davis comes over as a free agent from Buffalo to give the Jaguars some more explosiveness in their offense. The problem with Davis is that he is very inconsistent and seems to not only take plays off but entire games off. There were so many times in Buffalo where he would give fantasy managers a goose egg that it’s hard to endorse him as anything more than a DFS flyer and bye-week fill-in.
Thomas has incredible upside and probably would have been an even higher draft pick had he not shared the field with Malik Nabers at LSU. While he was overshadowed in college, I don’t expect that he will be with the Jaguars. He’s a very talented receiver and as he learns the pro game and to run a full route tree, I think that he will become a top receiving threat in this league within a matter of two or three seasons. Right now, his prop bet for 2024 is 800.5 receiving yards. I think that’s a little aggressive, considering he’s only a rookie, but that shows how much Vegas thinks of his upside.
While most people prefer to spend their early draft picks on tight ends such as Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews it may just be the better course of action to wait until around Round 7 or 8 to take Evan Engram. Engram was highly targeted last season, and now, with Calvin Ridley gone, he should see a similar number of targets, making him one of the more undervalued players in the middle rounds.
This team goes as Lawrence goes. If he can put it together and throw for 4400 yards and 25 touchdowns, the Jaguars should be able to make the playoffs, but if he finishes under 4000 passing yards, there could be a chance they could be on the outside looking in.
