Ahhhhhh the Green Bay Packers – arch nemesis to my beloved Chicago Bears. The Packers have owned my Bears (and most of the rest of the NFL) for the last 30 years. And for good reason. The skill positions have often been stacked with the likes of Ahman Green, Aaron Jones, Dorsey Levens, Robert Brooks, Antonio Freeman, James Jones, Donald Driver, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Davante Adams, etc. Pro-Bowlers, every one of them. Oh, and, um, Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers also had decent careers in Titletown, USA (and by decent, I mean HOF). But this isn’t your father’s Packers team. And while the Lions are the team to beat in this division, the Packers have quietly rebuilt a contender in a relatively short time.
For context, the Packers finished last season 14th in passing yards and 15th in rushing yards – so middle-of-the-road production. They did, however, finish 3rd in passing touchdowns while ranking bottom 10 in rushing touchdowns, which is also a bit telling. Adam Stenavich returns as OC, so I don’t expect much to change in terms of game planning and play calling, other than player familiarity with the system, which isn’t a bad thing (unless the system is garbage, which this one isn’t).
Anywhosers, let’s dig in.
I actually watched quite a bit of Jordan Love football last year, and I’ll say I’m impressed. This kid makes major league throws with composure beyond his years. He has good size and speed, is efficient, and doesn’t turn the ball over. He’s more than just a game manager though, and I think with more time in this system, he progresses into an X factor that can and will win games. He’s effective at spreading the ball around, letting the game come to him, and taking what the defenses give him. This can function as a detriment to any one individual receiver aspiring to evolve into a top 10 at the position, however.
Love finished as QB6 last season (21.8 fantasy points per game) thanks in large part to this efficiency (98.0 red zone passer rating) and his ability to throw touchdown passes (32, good for second in the NFL). He will also kick in a rushing touchdown every four games or so, which doesn’t hurt. Love is the model of fantasy scoring consistency, registering at least 20 fantasy points in about 65% of games (11/17) with only one real clunker (Week 5, where he coincidentally threw 3 picks). With the continued development of his young wide receivers (of which he returns his top four) and with the addition of pro-bowler Josh Jacobs and rookie playmaker Marshawn Lloyd in the backfield (AJ Dillon will be a ghost this year, trust me), Love is poised for another fantastic season. And bonus, you won’t have to invest significant draft capital in him – currently QB8 in the R6/R7 range (per FantasyPros).
Look, folks, we’re not dealing with 2022 all-world Jacobs here, and we need to come to terms with that. His 2023 season saw significant drops in stats and metrics across the board (1.3 yards after contact per attempt and only nine explosive rushes of 10+ yards, for example). And this despite having a decent run-blocking line – which says to me it’s a “him” issue and not a “them” issue. He did miss four games due to a quad injury, which mercifully ended one of the worst seasons of his professional career. I also remember thinking at the time of his signing that Jacobs doesn’t seem to be a scheme fit, and he certainly has a lot of eyes on him in what is shaping up to be a make-or-break season for the veteran.
I recently read that Josh Jacobs will be the Packers version of Rachaad White (Derek Brown, FantasyPros), and I can’t unsee that. From a fantasy perspective, that might not be a terrible thing (White finished as RB7 last season). But, as I stated in the lead-in, this is not a run-heavy offense, and they just don’t look to their RBs at the goal line (just four rushing TDs, one receiving TD last season), which will limit his (and every other RB on this roster) production. He’s a bit of a pass catcher, nothing exceptional, but Love doesn’t really throw to his RBs anyway (20% to the position). This is essentially a one-year trial for Jacobs, with the next RB in this article clipping at his heels for touches. He is being drafted as RB12 and going right around the top 30, which seems high to me. At that cost, I’m out on Jacobs and will be investing elsewhere.
Allow me to quote myself from a previous article (lazy, I know). I like what I’ve seen from the back out of USC (by way of South Carolina), and I think — despite being the RB3 on this Packers team — there’s an opportunity for him to be a contributor in the short term. His tangibles include a good size-to-speed ratio, athleticism, and creativity after the touch. He’s got good burst and has flashed explosiveness (one of only five FBS RBs to average OVER seven yards per carry). Ball security is an issue (eight fumbles in college), which he’ll need to clean up to earn coach Matt LaFleur’s trust.
As far as the depth chart issues, I’m not super concerned with the presence of AJ Dillon (told you, ghost), though Josh Jacobs is a little more worrisome based on the Packers’ investment in him. Believe it or not, Lloyd’s has a path to RB1 touches in this offense, possibly in the not-so-distant future. Most likely, we’ll see a complementary role to Jacobs to start the season, with an opportunity for more if the opportunity presents itself. He is currently dealing with a hip issue, which is reported as minor. Lloyd is going at RB48 in drafts (redraft leagues), right around the 145 mark (R14/R15). I promise you I’ll be throwing darts in that direction come draft day.
A rookie in 2023, Reed wasn’t an every-down kind of receiver, but when he was on the field, he made an impact. Per Fantasy Data, Reed averaged 2.3 fantasy points per target (for comparison, Tyreek Hill averaged 2.2 by the same measure). Additionally, he tied for 8th in the NFL with 8 receiving touchdowns despite a lack of full-time usage. Reed was primarily a slot receiver, but that fits as Jordan Love’s distribution chart demonstrates a preference for the short middle, left, and right routes (per NFL Savant). Once he found his footing (and his QB’s favor), Reed presented a very sturdy floor (less than 10 points only twice from Week 7 forward) and averaged approximately 16.0 points in those same contests – finishing the season as WR26. Reed opened camp on the non-football injury list (toe injury suffered at a football camp in Green Bay), but the outlook is positive.
FantasyPros has him as WR35 in drafts, coming off around 73 overall (R7/R8). I don’t hate that spot, but as I mentioned earlier, I don’t necessarily love the outlook for any of these WRs to truly cook on a weekly basis. As they say, it’ll be what it’ll be. But R7 and R8 is where upside play comes into the picture, and Reed definitely has the chops to deliver 2022-Christian Kirk-esque type numbers with weekly usage.
I really like Wicks at his current price (WR67, 164 overall, per Fantasy Data ). Plus, there isn’t a standout in front of him on the depth chart (all due respect to Jayden Reed). A rookie in 2023 out of Virginia (R5), Wicks isn’t a speed demon, but he’s got moxie/savvy/craftiness and has been called a technician by many evaluators. And honestly, the numbers weren’t all that bad for the supposed WR4 on the team – 581 yards and four touchdowns. Pro Football Focus actually lists him as the Packers highest graded pass-catcher (77.8), which says something.
Jordan Love seems to, well, love him also, as evidenced by his rating when targeting Wicks (117.6), and he’s basically said so as well. Not to mention, the Green Bay shot callers seem to love him. Plus, if a WR is compared favorably to Davante Adams, it’s worth taking note. Folks, add it all together, and that’s enough for me. I’m all in at his current draft value (WR63, R15, or later), and you should be, too. Going out on a sturdy limb and going to say he is a no doubt WR2 on this team in 2024, and possibly pushing WR1 by season’s end.
I’m not going to dive deep here, but I wanted to mention these two as they figure to factor much in the same way as they did last year. And while the two listed above stand out for me, Doubs and Watson will be there. The target share for the four was as follows for 2023: Doubs (17.1%), Reed (16%), Wicks (10.3%), and Watson (9.4%). I do see that changing, though, and expect the shakeout to be Reed, Wicks, Doubs, and Watson – in that order.
Doubs is slightly more interesting than Watson to me, largely because Love seems to really dig his ability to get open. Rapport with your QB matters, friends, so we’ll see if this translates in camp and into Week 1 and beyond. I see these two as reads 3,4 or 5, and that’s safety valve territory. Won’t be drafting either of these guys, but I’ll be watching them on the wire each week.
Jordan Love targeted his tight ends exactly 100 times (17.8% share), which translated to 77 catches, 793 yards, and 4 touchdowns. If all (or most) of that went to one guy, we’d have something. But that was split amongst the four tight ends on the roster last year, primarily Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft (both of whom are on the roster). Currently, at camp, they have six tight ends, none of which stand to challenge for TE1 or TE2 come Week 1. This means Musgrave and Kraft will again split the opportunities.
Musgrave is far more talented than Kraft, and I expect that will be more reflected in the stats this season. That said, the ceiling is low, in my opinion. For the time being, this isn’t a room to target on draft day. Musgrave is currently being drafted at a cost of TE18, 150th overall. That’s probably a touch optimistic, which reflects the temperature around Musgrave’s ability and draft hype. My best guess is 50 +/- receptions, 500 yards, and 4 tuddys. In other words, he won’t be my TE1 this season.
