Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- RB Josh Jacobs did not practice on Wednesday with what is being called a knee contusion. Initial testing came back clean early this week, but his status remains in doubt for Week 12 against the Vikings.
- WRs Romeo Doubs, Matthew Golden, Christian Watson, and Dontayvion Wicks were all limited on Wednesday and should play this week.
- A loss by the Vikings doesn’t mathematically eliminate them from postseason contention, but it would drop their chances to “slim to none.”
- After starting the season 5-1-1 and in first place in the NFC, the Packers have dropped two of three and suddenly find themselves on the fringes of the playoff picture.
- Any game involving this form of the Vikings is going to carry a wide range of outcomes, but it is likely up to them to dislodge the Packers from their likeliest game plan and more conservative play calling tendencies.
- Emanuel Wilson saw every running back opportunity for the Packers after Josh Jacobs left the team’s Week 11 win over the Giants.
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How Minnesota Will Try To Win ::
The Vikings have been completely hamstrung by ineffective quarterback play this season. A loss to the Packers in Week 12 doesn’t mathematically eliminate them from postseason contention, but it does make things extremely difficult. As such, we’re quickly approaching “oh shit” mode for their season, making this game as close to a must-win contest as there can be in Week 12. I’m starting to be increasingly underwhelmed with the way head coach Kevin O’Connell has chosen to game plan around his young quarterback this season. We’ve seen extreme hesitation to utilize fullback C.J. Ham for most of the season, instead running primarily from 11-personnel through Jalen Nailor in the slot. The reason that is so underwhelming to me has to do with what that means for opposing defenses and how they are able to play the Vikings, leading to the fourth highest rate of man coverage against. Opposing teams are effectively daring McCarthy to beat them deep, which has resulted in his low completion rate (52.9%) and elevated deep throw rate (15.0%).
Jordan Mason continues to be largely phased out of the offense after his struggles with Aaron Jones out earlier in the year. Jones has seen a 67% snap rate or higher in each of the previous two games, handling 15 and 22 opportunities against the Ravens and Bears, respectively. Furthermore, Jones saw six targets in each of those games, elevating both his floor and ceiling in the process. The biggest problem with those looks is that his aDOT currently stands at just 1.1, meaning his “route” is more like “hey, go chip or escape to the flat and we’ll use you as a dump-off option as the third or fourth read” instead of anything that truly boosts his upside. The Packers have held opponents to just 3.8 yards per carry this season and are expected to get back LB Lukas Van Ness on the interior, making this a less-than-stellar matchup for the Minnesota backfield on paper. The Vikings have generated a borderline elite 2.42 yards before contact per attempt due to the dynamic nature of their run game, but the strength of the Green Bay run defense is its second level, lowering the chances for breakaway or explosive runs.
The route structure is another issue, with only tight end T.J. Hockenson carrying an aDOT lower than 11.5 (5.3), of the primary contributors. Justin Jefferson (11.5), Jordan Addison (14.4), and Nailor (13.4) are all operating primarily downfield, and Hockenson still doesn’t look right on film after his 2023 ACL tear, at least to my eye. Jones has been in a route at a middling 46.5% this season, but his aDOT (1.1) is laughable. The structure of the offense just looks so flat and unimaginative, which brings me back to a potential causal factor in McCarthy’s to-date struggles. That exploration takes on increased meaning when you then consider the structural tendencies of the Green Bay defense, a unit that has deployed zone coverage at the eighth highest rate while forcing the fewest yards per completion in the league (8.5). Like you’ll see with the Green Bay pass-catchers below, nothing truly stands out on paper here.
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