XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
Week 8 and we’re just about halfway through the season already. We have the Vikings visiting the Chargers for a 44.5 total game with Los Angeles favored by 3. J.J. McCarthy will still be out for the Vikings, leaving Carson Wentz as the quarterback, while Aaron Jones may make his return from injured reserve to reinforce the Minnesota backfield…and so we’ll start there.
MINNESOTA
Assuming Jones returns, that removes Jordan Mason from bell cow status and should return the two backs to some sort of timeshare – probably close to an even split. This is an unfortunate development for DFS because the Chargers have been getting trampled by opposing running backs lately, allowing big performances to Jonathan Taylor, De’Von Achane, Jacory Croskey-Merritt, and Cam Skattebo in four consecutive weeks. Assuming the Vikings keep things close, it’s very plausible one of their running backs has a big game, and Mason is a bit priced down into territory where he’s still in play as a contrarian tournament piece even if it’s a timeshare. I’d sooner play Mason than Jones, as it’s possible Jones gets eased back in a bit, but both are viable. They’re volatile options, but I expect ownership will be low, and so it’ll be easy to be overweight the field should you desire it. I wouldn’t pair them together. If Jones doesn’t play, Mason is in a much stronger bell cow role and at $8.6k would project extremely well, while RB2 Zavier Scott would be viable as a tourney punt assuming he’s in, and Cam Akers would fill that role should Scott miss.
Showdown Ownership Projections!
Ownership updates automatically
In the air, Justin Jefferson is $11.8k, his most expensive Showdown price of the season, despite only having two games over 20 DK points on the year so far. Jefferson is immensely talented, but the matchup isn’t ideal, and neither is his quarterback situation. He’s a tricky play here because the ceiling is awesome, but the floor is pretty scary for his price, and yet his brand name means we’re almost never going to get an ownership discount on him in a Showdown. I’m probably a terrified-but-underweight position here. WR2 Jordan Addison, though, has actually outscored Jefferson on a points-per-game basis, which is admittedly a tiny sample size, but Addison is also very talented, and as Pulse has pointed out in our Discord, Addison actually has more 30+ DK point games in the last two years than Jefferson. Odd, isn’t it? At $7,400, Addison sure looks tempting, and since he’s priced right around all the Chargers wideouts, his ownership will likely be kept in check a bit. The WR3 is Jalen Nailor, who is in roughly a half-time role that has still earned him 3-5 targets every game; that’s a totally fair price at $3,600, and while he isn’t an exciting play, he’s a reasonable value option, and if he finds paydirt he is also getting enough volume that he probably finds his way into the optimal lineup. Worth noting: this could just be fluky, but Nailor currently leads the team in red zone targets with 8, and while I’d be stunned if that continues throughout the year, he does at least have some trust when in the red zone, and that’s valuable. Adam Thielen has been mostly removed from the offense now that Addison is back and can be viewed as a tourney dart throw at best.
At tight end, I’ve written several times already this year about how Carson Wentz has one of the highest TE target rates of any quarterback in the league going back for several years…except he hasn’t been targeting Hockenson at those rates. Is it Hockenson? Is it because he has two elite wideouts to throw to? Is it something else? I don’t know, but Hock did finally see 9 targets last week, his most of the year. I generally tend to trust years-long trends over just a few games, so I think if Wentz keeps starting for Minnesota that we’ll see some more games of 8+ targets for Hock, and $4,800 is just far too cheap if he ends up seeing that kind of volume. I’m in. TE2 Josh Oliver plays just under half the snaps and can be considered as a tourney punt option. I prefer Nailor to Oliver as he’s consistently earned more targets (25 for Nailor vs. just 7 for Oliver on the year).
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