XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
We get another international game this week as the Vikings and Browns will be in London on Sunday morning. Worth noting here is that the Vikings played in Dublin last weekend, which could give them a slight edge just by virtue of not having had to travel this week – they should be used to the time zone change. Fresh off a loss to the Steelers, Minnesota will look to get back on track against the mediocre Browns here in this game with a whopping 36.5 total (one of the lowest I’ve had to ever write up for Showdown, what fun) with the Vikings favored by 3.5.
MINNESOTA
With Aaron Jones on injured reserve, Jordan Mason has been put into a pretty large role, but it isn’t full-on bell cow territory. He played 60% of the snaps in Week 3’s blowout of the Bengals and then 62% last week in a competitive game, so it looks like perhaps Week 3’s snap rate wasn’t purely due to the blowout. He’s had 16 and 19 opportunities in the two weeks since Jones went down, while backup Zavier Scott saw 9 opportunities in Week 3 (most coming in the 4th quarter) and then 10 last week, including a whopping 8 targets (second on the team!). Given that Scott played just 38% of the snaps, that kind of target rate clearly looks like an outlier, but there does seem to be a very real role here as the passing down back. It’s also worth noting that while Carson Wentz has historically had one of the highest target rates to tight ends of any quarterback in the NFL, last week T.J. Hockenson saw only 5 targets while Scott saw 8, and there’s perhaps some kind of push-pull relationship here in which Scott might have soaked up some of the short area work that otherwise would go to Hock. One game isn’t enough for me to change my overall beliefs about Wentz and his target tendencies, but I’d be wary of playing these two together on too many rosters. The matchup here is really rough against a Browns defense that is probably a top-3 unit in the league. While they have lost three games and given up 34 and 41 points in two of those losses, they have only given up a total of 281 rushing yards on the season (they also aren’t giving up many passing yards – it’s just the offense sucks, so opponents keep finding themselves in good field position). It’s unlikely that Mason or any other Viking, really, is going to rack up a massive yardage total – you’re going to need to find touchdowns, and so that leads me back to Mason as running backs, overall, have the highest touchdown equity of any position.
In the passing game, we know Justin Jefferson is an absolute stud. He’s played almost every single offensive snap in competitive games with 98%, 100%, and 100% of the snaps in non-blowouts. He finally had the kind of performance we’ve come to expect from him last week, catching 10 of 11 targets for 126 yards. The matchup sucks, but if anybody can beat it, it’s a guy like Jefferson, leaving him in the “he’s always a premium play in Showdown” category. WR2 Jordan Addison returned last week and stepped into a big role, playing 96% of the offensive snaps. He was tied with Scott for 2nd on the team in targets, but outside of one huge 81-yard catch, he only caught 3 other balls for 33 yards. Addison is a much more volatile option as he’s reliant on big plays. He does have a solid red zone role to give him touchdown upside (17 red zone targets last year to Jefferson’s 22, and that was in two fewer games). Still, when it comes to matchups against elite-tier defenses, I’m generally going to lean towards the superstar as the guy who has the best chance to break something open. WR3 Jalen Nailor plays a lot, but with Addison back, he’s a low target earner, leaving him in the value/punt play category. Adam Thielen’s snaps absolutely vanished with Addison back as he dipped down to just a 16% snap rate.
At tight end, T.J. Hockenson is playing almost every offensive snap, and while last week he didn’t see much work, I’m personally going to trust Wentz’s much longer-term history of heavily targeting tight ends. I really wish Hock had dipped down in price after last week’s meh performance, but he went up instead to the highest price we’ve seen him at this season. That’s a bit rough, but it still feels to me as a fair salary (I was just hoping he would be underpriced, but alas). TE2 Josh Oliver has seen 3 targets all season and thus is just a dart throw.
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