Game Overview ::
By Mike johnson >>
- This is a rematch of a Week 3 game that the Colts won 41-20.
- Indianapolis running back Jonathan Taylor has been dominant this season, scoring three touchdowns in a game three times already through seven weeks.
- The Colts defense has allowed 400+ yards of total offense in three of the last four weeks.
- Tennessee released veteran wide receiver Tyler Lockett and may be without Calvin Ridley again this week after he failed to practice to start the week.
- Indianapolis is operating one of the most efficient offenses not just of this season but in recent history, while the Titans are near the bottom of the league in most defensive metrics.
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How Tennessee Will Try To Win ::
The Titans got the immediate “post-coach firing” bump that we often see for teams in the first half against New England as they jumped out to an early 10-3 lead and scored a first quarter touchdown for the first time all season. Yes, that is a true statistic. The Titans had not scored more than three points in a first quarter this season prior to Week 7. Impressive. Unfortunately for Tennessee, the Patriots gradually pulled away for an easy 31-13 victory as the Titans had two turnovers on five second half possessions while falling back into their old ways.
The Titans backfield has been split since the return of Tyjae Spears with him and Tony Pollard playing roughly an equal amount of snaps. Tennessee has not been very efficient on the ground, however, ranking 26th in rushing offense DVOA and yards per carry. The Titans offensive line has actually been average in run blocking, ranking 14th in adjusted line yards per carry, but middling stats like that don’t mean much when the game script gets away from them so quickly in most weeks.
The Titans rank 2nd in raw pass rate, but have tried to be a balanced offense early in games as they attempt to slow games down and stay within striking distance. However, the Titans were more creative and aggressive throwing the ball early in last week’s game which was the first since the removal of former head coach Brian Callahan. Indianapolis faces the second highest opponent pass rate in the NFL, which is also heavily influenced by game script, but nonetheless this projects as a game that the Titans will need to open things up a bit early on to give themselves a chance of early offensive success and the way things look on the other side of the ball they are likely to be chasing points for the entirety of this game.
Tennessee’s wide receiver room entering this season left a lot of questions, but for this week at least things seem to be relatively clear cut. The Titans released veteran wide receiver Tyler Lockett on Monday and are expected to be without Calvin Ridley once again this week, while Ridley also happens to be the subject of many trade rumors across the league. The removal of Lockett leaves explosive rookie Chimere Dike in position for a full-time slot receiver role, while veteran Van Jefferson and rookie Elic Ayomanor are the every down perimeter receivers. The tight ends have been splitting work as well, with rookie Gunnar Helm having an increased role last week and each of Helm and Chig Okonkwo playing roughly 60% of the team’s snaps. The Colts defense has given up big games to tight ends in consecutive weeks (Trey McBride and Oronde Gadsden), while also allowing Chargers slot receiver Keenan Allen and Cardinals veteran journeyman Zay Jones to have success against them in recent weeks. Tennessee ranks 26th in plays per game as their offense for much of the year struggled to sustain drives at all, but they have shown signs of life and should see elevated play volume in this matchup against a Colts team who has faced a high amount of plays from opponents this season. The likely increase in play volume and elevated pass rate in a trailing game script lead to a situation where Titans rookie QB Cam Ward seems likely to eclipse his season high of 39 pass attempts in this matchup.
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