Game Overview ::
By HILOW >>
- QB Lamar Jackson is expected to miss the next 2-3 games, which is a massive issue for a 1-3 Ravens team. NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport called Jackson “week-to-week” but would not rule out the possibility of him playing against the Texans.
- The Ravens will also be without DT Nnamdi Madubuike (neck, IR), CB Marlon Humphrey, and LB Roquan Smith.
- LB Kyle Van Noy and DT Travis Jones were both present at practice Wednesday after missing Week 4, while CB Chidobe Awuzie, FB Patrick Ricard, T Ronnie Stanley, and CB Nate Wiggins all did not practice.
- WR Nico Collins (knee) was limited in practice Wednesday but appears to be on track to play.
- CB Derek Stingley (oblique) was a ‘DNP’ Wednesday after missing Week 4.
How houston Will Try To Win ::
The Texans rank 14th in pass rate over expectation (PROE) while averaging 29.3 pass attempts per game, with the slowest pace of play in the league through four weeks. Quarterback C.J. Stroud’s underlying metrics are not terrible this season, ranking in the middle of the pack in most meaningful metrics. The biggest issue I see has to do with situational tendencies. Stroud ranks 21st in early-down pass attempts (84 passes attempted on first and second down), while he has a robust 10.3% sack rate (eighth highest, of quarterbacks to attempt 15 or more passes), low 60.6% completion rate, and silly-low 0.31 FP/DB on 33 third-down pass attempts this season. It’s simple – the offense is continually finding itself in long down-and-distance situations and Stroud has been borderline dreadful in key situations, largely influenced by the pressure opponents are able to get against a poor offensive line. Stop me if you’ve heard this before. Yea, sounds a lot like what we were saying all last season. And you’re probably not surprised to learn Stroud averages the highest FP/DB on first down (a still-non-stellar 0.55) this season. I also found it hilarious that the Texans used standard elevations on fullback Jakob Johnson the first three games before just being like, “hey, sorry dude, we’ll just use some dude named British Brooks now, thanks for the three games” instead of signing him to the active roster. This franchise is just being run like a poverty franchise, with so many questionable decisions in recent history. Sorry, not sorry, Texans fans, but I have to call it like I see it. With that out of the way, I would expect the Texans to come out with their normal slow pace of play while looking to shorten the game on the strength of their defense, instead of coming out firing against an injury-ravaged Ravens team. In other words, the likeliest scenario here is that nothing changes and we’re left continually wanting more.
Rookie Woody Marks appears to have usurped established, and aging, veteran Nick Chubb for the backfield lead after handling 17 carries and seeing five targets on a team-leading 56% snap rate against the Titans in Week 4. Again, the Texans are not a team to completely trust to do what is expected week in and week out, but it certainly appears as if Marks is the lead dog in a shared backfield at present. We do have to be real about the 17 carries, as the team managed 35 team carries against a Titans team that failed to score a point. The running backs (Chubb, Marks, Dare Ogunbowale, and Dameon Pierce) have combined to average only 17 carries per game in their other three games, so volume remains a concern in all game environments other than a complete dusting of their opponent, giving at least a bit of pause for concern with the electric rookie. The matchup on the ground is a solid one considering the sheer number of injuries to the Ravens, a team that has allowed over 5.0 yards per carry in their last three games.
Crash the leaderboards
PFP the OWS pennant
The Texans have exactly one offensive snap from 12-personnel this season, and have exactly one pass catcher that plays more than 66% of the offensive snaps on a consistent basis (Collins). Christian Kirk is effectively a slot-only receiver at this point in his career, Xavier Hutchinson is not yet well-rounded enough to see a full allotment of snaps, and Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel are not yet trusted in every-down roles. Hell, even Dalton Schultz didn’t play over 60% of the offensive snaps in a game until Week 3. I’m not really sure what the end game is for this offense, to be honest, with a smattering of “let’s figure this out on the fly” mixed with “we’re really not sure what we’re doing here.” It really appears to be a “Collins or bust” proposition for the Texans through the air at present, and even then, he has one usable fantasy score in four tries. I continue to regard Collins as a true top-five wide receiver in the league today, so the blowup games are likely still in there, it’s just been a bit maddening guessing as to when they will happen. Suffice to say, he carries immense upside in this spot considering the injuries to the Ravens. Nobody else on the offense really warrants fantasy considering in the current state of this offense.
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