XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
Our Saturday of DFS starts with the Texans at Chargers in a 39.5 total game with Los Angeles favored by 2. As is almost always the case with the Texans, Vegas expects a low-scoring game here, which feels accurate as both teams are middle of the pack in points scored per game, while the Chargers are 8th in points allowed (20.1) and the Texans are 1st (16.6). Weird stuff can happen in any single game, but the odds of this being a shootout are loowwww.
LOS ANGELES
On the Chargers side of things, Omarion Hampton handled 18 touches last week against the Cowboys on 55% of the offensive snaps, while Kimani Vidal left the game in the fourth quarter with a neck injury. Prior to Vidal’s exit, he still only handled 5 touches, so the split is probably about what we should expect if Vidal plays – maybe something like 70/30 or 65/35 in favor of Hampton. Vidal is questionable, having missed two practices, but was listed as limited in Thursday’s practice estimate (note: not an actual practice!) and is questionable. My guess is he misses, which boosts Hampton quite a bit, but he could surprise us. We don’t ever like playing guys against the Texans D, but we have to, and Hampton’s role would be really strong sans Vidal as the only backups would be Jaret Patterson and Hassan Haskins. I’d guess Patterson would be the backup, but neither has been trusted much in competitive games this season. If Vidal plays, Hampton is still a viable option but he’s a bit on the pricey side – he goes from “good” to “fine,” while Vidal would be tough to trust coming off the injury but would still deserve the “RB2 in Showdown” treatment (for those newer readers or those who are stuffed with Christmas feasting and forgot, RB2s tend to be habitually underowned relative to their likelihoods of being viable in tourneys).
Showdown Ownership Projections!
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In the passing game, the Chargers have struggled since Joe Alt was hurt. Yeah, they smashed Dallas last week, but everyone smashes Dallas. It’s a horrible spot, but we have to play at least 1 Charger so let’s try to figure this out. Ladd McConkey is by far the safest and best play in the Los Angeles pass catching corps. Not only is he the most talented pass catcher they have, but he’s also playing the most snaps of late, and he runs most of his routes out of the slot, where the Texans have been more of a solid defense than an elite one. Quentin Johnston and Tre’ Harris will run mostly perimeter routes. It’s worth noting Johnston played just 58% of the snaps last week, the 2nd fewest he’s played in any game this year, but he was also returning from missing a game, so it’s not entirely clear if that’s a sticky data point or just a one-game blip. Either way, the matchup is awful as Houston is absolutely elite against perimeter wideouts, and after a big Week 16, his price has bounced back up to a relatively high $7,600. It’s a clear underweight spot for me. Harris actually tied Johnston with 5 targets and has been playing solid snaps of late. His floor/ceiling combo in this matchup isn’t THAT different from Johnston’s, and he’s only $3,400. Given their huge price gap, I lean toward Harris of the two, and I view them as comparable, given that their route trees are similar. I’d be tempted to max 1 of them as it’s already asking a lot for 1 perimeter wideout to have a good game against Houston, but asking for 2 just seems greedy (and extremely unlikely). Old man Keenan Allen has predictably been fading away as the season goes on, having failed to each even 10 DK points since all the way back in Week 7. Despite that lack of performance he’s still priced at $6,600, making him a pay up to be contrarian option, and one I am particularly unexcited by. We’ve also seen KeAndre Lambert-Smith play a handful of snaps the last couple of weeks, with 1 target in each week, making him worthy of consideration as an MME dart throw at $1,200.
At tight end, Oronde Gadsden burst onto the scene in Week 7 with a 32.4 DK point performance, then had a nice 18.7 point performance in Week 8, and then somewhat vanished. He’s only reached double digit DK points once since Week 9. He’s still talented, but there are a lot of mouths to feed here. The good news for Gadsden is his price has steadily dipped, and at $4,800, he’s back below the kickers (probably where he should be). The bad news is the matchup, as the Texans have stifled opposing tight end production. Overall, Ladd’s my favorite here, then Harris, then everyone else.
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