Steelers (

22.5) at
Patriots (

21.5)

Game Overview ::

By papy >>

• The Steelers defense is beat up with DE Derrick Harmon, OLB Alex Highsmith, S DeShon Elliott, and CB Joey Porter all on the injury report to start the week
• The Patriots’ only DNP was DE Keion White with an illness
• The Steelers have been more balanced than in past versions of Arthur Smith-led offenses
• The Steelers backfield has been a timeshare between Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell
• The Steelers are playing three TEs between 40-60% of the snaps
• DK Metcalf and Calvin Austin are full-time players, but neither has seen more than seven targets in either game
• Drake Maye is underpriced for his projected fantasy points, but he’s very challenging to stack
• The Pats WR snaps are spread out, with Kayshon Boutte being the closest thing to a full-time player
• The Pats backfield is a three-way timeshare

JM’S JOURNAL ::

Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.

How pittsburgh Will Try To Win ::

The 1-1 Steelers come into Week 3 off a disheartening home loss against the Seahawks. Pittsburgh barely outlasted a Jets team that got killed by the Bills in Week 2 and didn’t look especially good in any phase of the game against Seattle. There is a chance the Steelers aren’t very good. The Steelers are 16th in situational neutral pass rate, 17th in pass rate over expectations, and 11th in pass rate. Those seem like moderate numbers, but for an Arthur Smith offense, they’ve been chucking it all over the yard. The more balanced approach is either small sample size noise or a compromise with Aaron Rodgers. If it’s the latter, the Steelers might throw more than we’ve come to expect with Arthur Smith at the helm. The problem with a more balanced offense is that the Steelers don’t have the personnel to pass. They’re trying to play three TEs, all over 40% of the snaps, which makes being anything but a running team difficult. Pittsburgh has been playing up-tempo (9th in seconds per play), but most of that comes from their game against the Jets. They were 25th in tempo relative to game expectations in Week 2, which might be a sign that Rodgers is going to use the whole play clock like we’ve seen most of his career.

The Steelers O-line has been shaky (21st ranked by PFF). They have two first-round picks at tackle who both allowed multiple pressures against the Seahawks. As a unit, they graded out 22nd overall in pass blocking efficiency, which isn’t going to be good enough to protect an immobile Rodgers. Jaylen Warren is clearly Pittsburgh’s best RB, but Arthur Smith would rather eat a sandwich without mayo than give one guy over 60% of the snaps. Kenneth Gainwell curiously out-snapped Warren in Week 1, with their playing time reversing in Week 2. Rookie Kaleb Johnson, who was expected to be used on early downs, has barely played a snap and didn’t do himself any favors blundering away the game by not fielding a kickoff against the Seahawks. The Patriots have been stout against the run (5th in DVOA) and roasted through the air (31st in DVOA), presenting as an early-season pass funnel. The Steelers threw Week 1 before looking “Arthur Smithy” in Week 2. The smart way to attack the Patriots is through the air, but the Steelers will likely try to run before throwing late to keep pace.

How new england Will Try To Win ::

The 1-1 Patriots come into Week 3 off a thrilling 33-27 win against the Dolphins. The Pats are 5th in pass rate over expectations, and 8th in pass rate, but really, it’s been a tale of two games. The Patriots threw 46 times against the Raiders in Week 1 and 23 times against the Dolphins in Week 2. They are 25th in seconds per play, but they ranked 5th in neutral pace over expectations in Week 1, before slowing way down in Week 2. Mike Vrabal might’ve told McDaniels to calm things down, and after winning with a slower pace, it’ll likely be here to stay. Maye has been as advertised, but WR production has been spread out, with no pass catcher seeing more than 12 targets over the first two weeks. TreVeyon Henderson hasn’t been on the field for more than a third of the snaps in either game. He also had a rough Week 2, blowing multiple pass protections, which is something he was excellent at in college. Rhamondre Stevenson’s long reception came on a play that was initially designed for Henderson, but he wasn’t on the field because of his pass-blocking issues. That was likely a one-game blip, but if Henderson does struggle in pass protection, it’ll be hard for him to get consistent playing time.

The Patriots O-line has been below average (19th ranked by PFF), but their overall ranking doesn’t tell the whole story. After a rough Week 1, they moved up seven spots in the O-line rankings after an excellent Week 2. Rookie RG Jared Wilson had the second-best PFF rank among all guards, and the entire unit allowed only two pressures. Center Garret Bradbury is off to the best start of his career and leads all centers in pass protection grade. The Patriots revamped their O-line in the offseason, and after a slow start, they might come together to be a respectable unit. The Steelers are supposed to be a defensive team, but they’ve been anything but to start the season. They’ve been trampled on the ground (28th in DVOA) and smacked through the air (27th in DVOA). The Steelers haven’t been able to stop anything, and T.J. Watt looks washed after signing a massive, guaranteed contract. The Steelers have also been dealing with injuries at every level. Having lost first-round pick DE Derrick Harmon, OLB Alex Highsmith, S DeShon Elliott, and CB Joey Porter. The Steelers have been nothing but least resistance. After winning last week with a balanced approach, it’s reasonable to expect the Patriots to come out running and to stay conservative unless the Steelers take a lead.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game has a close spread (1.5) with a moderate (44.5) total, which feels more like a bet against these defenses than a bet on the offenses. These two teams ranked 32nd and 31st in explosive plays allowed. That would lead you to believe this game will have a lot of long touchdowns, but both offenses are void of playmakers capable of creating explosive plays. Still, the respectable total indicates that these defenses are inferior to the offenses. With the Steelers defense being bad at everything, and the Patriots defense being a sieve against the pass, expect both teams to find success through the air. This game may end up producing a lot of points, despite the relative lack of star power on either offense. The most likely game flow is a back-and-forth affair with both sides finding success through the air and the winner being determined late into the 4th quarter.

DFS+ Interpretation ::