Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- Seahawks Safety Coby Bryant and OT Charles Cross appear to be in danger of missing Week 17 after consecutive ‘DNP’s.
- WR Tetairoa McMillan was estimated as a full participant in practice on Thursday after resting on Wednesday. He should be good to go for Week 17 while continuing to play through minor ailments.
- Explosive plays are likely to be difficult to come by in this one, considering the defensive tendencies from each side.
- Sam Darnold has absolutely shredded Cover-3 to the tune of 0.61 FP/DB, a 67.9% completion rate, an 8-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio, a 118.7 passer rating, and a lofty 15.3% deep throw rate. The Panthers rank third in Cover-3 utilization at 40.9%.
JM’S JOURNAL ::
Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.
How seattle Will Try To Win ::
The Seahawks have a very clear and effective game plan this season: keep the play in front of them through elevated Cover-4 and Cover-6 while allowing one of the league’s top pressure-to-blitz ratios to generate disruption, with one of the league’s top run defenses to boot. Offensively, this is a dynamic scheme that leverages play action to gash teams through the air. They have been particularly devastating through the air against Cover-3 and single-high alignments, which they will see a good deal of against the Panthers. But it all starts with their defense, a unit that is holding opponents to the eighth fewest yards per game and second fewest points per game.
The Seattle backfield continues to be as close to a true timeshare as possible, with Kenneth Walker the more explosive back and Zach Charbonnet better suited for short yardage situations. The goal line role has filtered between the two, resulting in a near 50-50 split in high value touches since the team’s Week 8 bye. Walker put up only his second 100-yard effort of the season last week against the Rams on just 11 carries, adding 9.4 points through the air for his top fantasy finish of the year (28.4). Walker has only two games with more than 13 carries since the bye and just five total touchdowns to the nine of Charbonnet, meaning this frustrating timeshare is unlikely to go away any time soon. The Seahawks rank eighth in carries per game at 28.8, but those opportunities simply remain likely to be split amongst the two, capping the relative upside while leaving no floor to speak of for either. The Carolina run defense has slipped of late after starting the season as one of the league’s better units, now allowing a robust 4.5 yards per carry and the eighth most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields.
Much of what the Seahawks do through the air revolves around what they are able to do on the ground, with heavy play action usage and route structures designed to create space for their top playmaker in Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The addition of Rashid Shaheed gives their offense more depth, although he continues to operate in a role delineated by the team’s heavy personnel usage. That has kept veteran Cooper Kupp in a primary role alongside JSN, with injuries to tight ends leaving AJ Barner to operate as a near every-down player for most of the season. JSN’s 0.26 TPRR, 3.85 YPRR, and 0.68 FP/RR against Cover-3 since Week 9 handily lead the team as he averages a ridiculous 17.47 yards per reception in that split. Nobody else on the team comes close to sniffing those metrics, making this a “JSN or bust” setup for the Seahawks through the air.
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