Saints (

17.25) at
Hawks (

24.25)

Game Overview ::

By Mike johnson >>

• The Saints are winless thus far this season, but have stayed competitive and been alive deep into both games.
• Saints head coach Kellen Moore has continued his aggressive pace of play tendencies we have seen at previous stops.
• Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba is among the league leaders in target share and his versatile skill set makes him difficult for opponents to scheme away.
• Seattle’s defense has looked good in consecutive weeks, holding the 49ers and Steelers below 20 points.
• Kenneth Walker III drastically outperformed Zach Charbonnet in Week 2, and Charbonnet was held out of practice to start the week.

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How new orleans Will Try To Win ::

Saints quarterback Spencer Rattler has acquitted himself quite well through two weeks, despite the team’s 0-2 record. He has connected with his receivers and kept the team competitive until the final drive in both weeks in spite of the team seemingly being outmatched. Rattler has been especially strong at taking care of the ball, with three touchdowns and no interceptions thus far this season. The offense is flowing almost entirely through four players – running back Alvin Kamara, wide receivers Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, and tight end Juwan Johnson. Johnson has been perhaps the biggest surprise and has amassed 20 targets through two weeks to lead all NFL tight ends. 

Kellen Moore has infused tempo into this offense as New Orleans leads the league in pace of play through two weeks. Moore has consistently had this approach throughout his coaching career, but there were some questions about whether it would continue on this Saints team that appears to be outmatched in many ways. He has done a great job putting Rattler in a position to succeed, as Rattler has the third-shortest time to throw among all NFL quarterbacks. The Seahawks have been blitzing at a low rate, but their coverages and blitzes tend to be of the more “exotic” type, which can often confuse opposing quarterbacks. Rattler may be in store to make some mistakes for the first time all season if he misdiagnoses the defense in his pre-snap reads and head coach Mike Macdonald is able to confuse him. This is exactly the type of matchup where Macdonald defenses often thrive.

The Seahawks secondary is among the best in the league from a personnel standpoint, and their run defense is solid as well. This leaves a situation where Rattler is likely to be using Kamara and Johnson at a very high rate. The Saints will also need their defense to hold up and keep this game competitive once again as falling behind on the road in Seattle seems like it could turn ugly quickly. Expect New Orleans to try to use pace and quick passing to counteract the Seattle crowd noise and opportunistic defense. Points will be at a premium here, and the Saints will likely be forced to march the field and convert a lot of third downs to find them. However, it wouldn’t be shocking for Moore to draw up some downfield attempts to Shaheed as a way to try to break things open early and play from a lead.

How seattle Will Try To Win ::

Seattle’s offense through two weeks has been relatively mundane and predictable. Their backfield has been split almost evenly between Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet, with Walker performing better in Week 2 after Charbonnet stole the show in Week 1. The Seahawks are running the ball at an extremely high rate, ranking 30th in the NFL in pass rate over expectation through two weeks. When they do throw the ball, receivers Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Cooper Kupp are dominating the targets. JSN had a whopping 60% target share in Week 1, while the duo combined for just over 60% of the team’s targets in Week 2. New quarterback Sam Darnold has been somewhat aggressive when he does take to the air, ranking 12th in the NFL in intended air yards per pass attempt. The Seahawks play a variety of other skill position players and rotate formations and personnel, but the overwhelming majority of their usage flows through those two running backs and the two wide receivers.

The Seahawks are leaning heavily on their strong defense to win games this season. In Week 1, Seattle led into the 4th quarter before the 49ers made plays down the stretch on both sides of the ball to secure the win. In Week 2, the Seahawks were tied entering the 4th quarter before taking the lead on a field goal and scoring a touchdown when Pittsburgh mishandled the ensuing kickoff. Through two games, the Seahawks are playing at a faster pace under new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, but their offense has sputtered at times regardless. The Saints were gashed on the ground by Arizona, but held their own against the 49ers. New Orleans also plays the fifth lowest rate of man coverage and blitzes at a bottom-10 rate, which means Darnold should have time to throw when he does drop back, and JSN and Kupp should have success finding holes in the zones as they are elite at doing so.

Seattle is likely to feel confident entering this home game against a relatively weak opponent, and we should expect a very similar Week 3 game plan to what we have seen in the first two weeks. The one caveat here is that Charbonnet missed practice on Wednesday with a foot injury that leaves his status in doubt. If he were to miss this game, we would expect to see Walker in a feature role and also for Seattle to increase their pass rate so as not to put too much on Walker’s plate. If Charbonnet does play, his foot injury and the fact that Walker outperformed him by a wide margin in Week 2 would seem to indicate a likely changing of the guard in terms of their usage split. In either case, the Seahawks are going to play things close to the vest and rely on their defense and home crowd rattling the visiting Saints.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

These teams both play at a fast pace but have been running the ball at a high rate through two weeks. However, we have a situation where both defensive fronts rank in the top-12 in the NFL in adjusted line yards per carry allowed. Neither offensive line entered the season regarded as especially strong, so the matchup on the ground seems somewhat difficult for both offenses. Seattle has the upper hand in the strength of their defense and the stability of their offense. The seven-point point spread seems about right, although Seattle is very likely to control this game. We have seen them hold two offenses that project to be stronger than the Saints in check the first two weeks and this would seem to be a spot where New Orleans will struggle to move the ball. When they do move the ball, Seattle is likely to hold up and force field goals rather than touchdowns. Seattle’s defensive approach of blitzing at a low rate also results in teams struggling to make explosive plays against them, the result of which is extended drives that often stall out. All things considered, Seattle games this year are likely to be relatively low scoring when they are able to be in control, which should be the case here.

DFS+ Interpretation ::