Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- WR DJ Moore was hospitalized after the team’s MNF win over the Commanders. The team has been less than forthcoming on the reason for his overnight stay, with most recent reports indicating it was a “groin” issue.
- The Saints are effectively back to full health following the returns of TEs Taysom Hill and Foster Moreau.
- I’m writing this up before the Bears released their initial injury report because these two teams are two of the healthier teams in Week 7, but we’ll need to circle back on practice participations Friday.
- Both teams are bottom 10 in pass rate over expectation (PROE), with the Saints ranked 31st and the Bears ranked 23rd.
- RB Alvin Kamara (ankle) did not practice for the Saints Wednesday, although recent reports out of New Orleans hint at a load-management stance with their veteran running back’s ankle.
JM’S JOURNAL ::
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How New orleans Will Try To Win ::
The Saints continue to play at blistering speed but aren’t necessarily looking to go out and outscore their opponents to win games, instead ranked near the bottom of the league (31st) in PROE with an extreme emphasis on passing to the short areas of the field against zone coverage. This is likely primarily due to their well-below-average quarterback situation with Spencer Rattler under center more than anything else, with the team instead reluctant to push the ball downfield with a low percentage downfield passer so as not to get behind the sticks more than they have to. That makes sense to me, but it also completely negates their uptempo nature as far as their game environments are concerned. The other aspect of their team that likely pushes them towards this mentality is a veteran defense that continues to play gritty football. They aren’t the fastest or most talented unit, but they are smart, disciplined, and tenacious, three things that combine to create a situation where the likeliest scenario leaves them at least within striking distance late into games. Losses against the Cardinals, 49ers, and Patriots by seven points or fewer emphasize that notion, while blowout losses to the Seahawks and Bills highlight how they can be simply outclassed against top-tier opponents (they beat the Giants for their only win of the season on the backs of five consecutive turnovers generated). I would argue the Bears are closer to the first grouping of teams than they are to the second, meaning the Saints should keep this game within reason and should be allowed to run their game plan deeper into the game.
Kamara continues to see his load managed as he works through an ankle injury, which appears to be the case as he missed practice on Wednesday. After starting the season playing 73% or more of the team’s offensive snaps in four straight games, Kamara has been capped at 63% in their two most recent games. That paved the way for Kendre Miller to see a 39% snap rate in consecutive contests. He has also seen between nine and 11 opportunities in three straight while Kamara has seen opportunities counts of 14 and 15 in Week 5 and 6, respectively. All of that to say, it is likely we see Miller continue in a “change-of-pace-plus” role for the Saints, which limits Kamara’s already shaky upside. While the matchup is pristine on the ground against a Chicago defense allowing 5.7 yards per carry (31st) behind 2.73 yards allowed before contact per attempt (dead last), there likely isn’t enough volume for either player to warrant condensed-player-pool GPP consideration.
Crash the leaderboards
PFP the OWS pennant
Chris Olave was present on the New Orleans injury report Wednesday as a limited participant, but all signs point to it being a non-issue. The returns of tight ends Moreau and Hill two weeks ago led to the lowest snap rates of the season for Juwan Johnson, and Jack Stoll has continued to be involved. Johnson fell to 0.10 targets per route run (TPRR) and just 2.5 targets per game the previous two games for the Saints, although he was still in a route at an 80.6% frequency (in line with his season average). Olave’s 0.30 TPRR and 29.5% target rate continue to be ranked near the top of the league, and he now leads the league with 20.0 expected fantasy points per game (XFP/G). The crazy aspect of his role in this offense is that he leads the team with seven deep targets but has not put up more than 15.8 DK points in a game this season, going down as the largest gap in XFP/G and fantasy points per game (FP/G) in the league. Even so, he has seen double-digit targets in all but one game this season as the primary cog of the offense through the air, and this is about as good of a matchup as he will see all season. There are definite paths to him breaking out at some point. Rashid Shaheed is the field stretcher in the offense with a 10.8-yard aDOT, but he has actually seen one fewer deep target this season than Olave and is averaging just 6.0 targets per game.
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