Ravens (

26) at
Browns (

18.5)

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

• Browns C Ethan Pocic (knee) and OT Jedrick Wills (knee) did not practice Wednesday. In fact, four of the team’s starting offensive linemen were on the first injury report Wednesday with knee injuries, as OT Jack Conklin and OG Wyatt Teller practiced in a limited fashion with knee injuries as well.
• RB Jerome Ford, who is coming off his first missed game of the season, did not practice Wednesday for the Browns either.
• Ravens WR Zay Flowers (ankle) was an estimated non-participant on the team’s Wednesday injury report after suffering an ankle injury early in the team’s Week 7 win. He missed the remainder of the drive but played the majority of the game (71% snap rate) in addition to recovering the second of two onside kick attempts from the Buccaneers. It is important to note that the Ravens played on Monday in Week 7, so they did not hold a full practice to begin the week.
• The Browns have some significant changes on the offensive side of the ball this week, with Jameis Winston expected to start under center and offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey expected to take over offensive play calling duties.
• Dorsey’s Bills averaged 36.4 pass attempts per game in 2022 and 35.0 pass attempts per game in the first ten games of the 2023 season before he was fired after a 5-5 start.
• Joe Flacco averaged 41.67 pass attempts per game during the final five regular season games of the 2023 season in relief of Deshaun Watson.

How baltimore Will Try To Win ::

The Ravens remain a team that prefers to ride the ground game for as long as they are allowed to, primarily through running back Derrick Henry and quarterback Lamar Jackson. That said, they have shown the ability and willingness to open up the offense through the air if the game environment dictates. Even so, we should expect the offensive game plan to start with a run-heavy attack built around their elite offensive line (most yards generated before contact per attempt) and the running back with the most yards on the ground this season in Derrick Henry. Considering the Browns rank second in man coverage rate (42.9%) and first in single-high alignments (71.2%), there’s nothing in the matchup that should preclude the Ravens from attacking in their preferred method here, with the most interesting aspect of the matchup being the league-leading pressure rate of the Cleveland defense (42.5%). That theoretically gives Lamar Jackson additional upside through the potential for additional scrambles, although those would have to come on pass plays, and we don’t expect the Ravens to come into the game looking for elevated dropback totals. Either way, Jackson has a clear path to double-digit carries in this matchup. Lead wide receiver Zay Flowers was listed as a DNP on the team’s estimated injury report Wednesday, but I expect him to continue to play through the ankle injury sustained early in the team’s Week 7 win over the Buccaneers, considering he returned on the team’s next drive after sitting out the remainder of the drive he got injured on. He was also used on special teams to recover an onside kick, telling me the injury was not a serious one.

Derrick Henry continues to see one of the highest snap-to-opportunity ratios in the league, with 15 carries and one target on 34 offensive snaps against the stout Tampa run defense on Monday. Justice Hill forms a solid one-two punch as the primary change of pace and clear passing situation back, while fullback Patrick Ricard continues to see his snaps influenced largely by game flow. The truth of the matter with this Baltimore run game is that the vast majority of the carries and production on the ground flows through Henry and Jackson for the team leading the league in rush attempts per game at 34.1. The matchup is “fine” on paper against a Browns defense, allowing 4.4 yards per carry and 1.63 yards before contact behind the offensive line, generating the most yards before contact per attempt in the league.

Tight ends Isaiah Likely and Mark Andrews continue to split offensive reps with Likely out-snapping Andrews in every game since Week 1. The elevated rates of jumbo personnel groupings this offense plays typically confines the primary wide receivers to sub-elite snap rates, led by Zay Flowers in a 70-80% snap rate role. Rashod Bateman has come on strong of late but has seen over a modest four targets just twice this season in a role that is almost exclusively of the downfield nature (sixth-ranked 14.8 aDOT). Finally, Nelson Agholor and Tylan Wallace mix in for situational reps and are largely afterthoughts through the air. The elevated rates of man coverage and single-high alignments from the Browns heavily favor Flowers, who has put up 0.53 fantasy points per route run against single-high and 0.42 fantasy points per route run against man coverage this season.

How cleveland Will Try To Win ::