GAME OVERVIEW ::
BY HILOW >>
- This game should be another defensive battle between two top defenses in the league, similar to the game environment each of these teams played in Week 1.
- Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, and Davante Adams combined to account for 70.4% of the Rams’ opportunities in Week 1, in what should remain a highly concentrated offense in Los Angeles.
- Titans tookie WR Elic Ayomanor ranked seventh in air yards in Week 1, which is quite the startling accomplishment for a rookie in his first NFL game. For those that were around for BB+ this offseason, you know we’ve been talking about Elic all offseason – the returns in the box score are sure to pick up in short order.
- The Titans face a murderer’s row of defenses to start the season – loss to Broncos, Rams, Colts, and Texans before facing the Cardinals, Raiders, and Patriots. It could take some time to see the true breakout from Cam Ward and company.
HOW LOS ANGELES WILL TRY TO WIN ::
The Rams are no longer the team looking to go out and eviscerate their opponents, maximizing scoring potential with each possession. Matthew Stafford is on the tail end of his career, they have a running back that can eat up volume, and their defense is one of the top units in the league, which is impressive considering their recent personnel turnover the previous two offseasons. They were near league average in pass rate over expectation (PROE) in Week 1 and ran just 57 offensive plays in a slugfest victory. But, that goes to reinforce the changing dynamics of this team in their current state – the goal is to win games, and they can now do that in different ways than they were forced to in the past.
We also know that this offense will continue to be highly concentrated, with the trio of Williams (16 carries and two targets), Nacua (11 targets and one carry), and Adams (eight targets) accounting for a ridiculous 70.4% of the available opportunities against the Texans. Expect another low-team-volume game that is highly concentrated amongst the top three skill-position players. Finally, their 30.1 seconds per play mark in Week 1 ranked near the middle of the pack as well.
For all the offseason hubbub regarding rookie Jarquez Hunter and Blake Corum, this backfield remained Kyren’s in Week 1. Hunter was a healthy inactive and Corum saw just one carry and one target. Kyren’s 90.3% opportunity share ranked third and his 91.4% snap rate ranked first at the position. He also saw four red-zone opportunities, including two goal-line carries. The Titans have a solid all-around defense but are likely to be susceptible to opposing ground games this season for as long as they are unable to sustain drives on the offensive side of the ball, which places additional stress on their run defense due simply to volume. We aren’t overly likely to see Kyren with a highly efficient game here, but volume is almost assuredly to be there. The Titans held their own along the defensive line for most of the game against the Broncos, ceding a middling 2.07 yards before contact per attempt. The 5.0 yards allowed per carry were ballooned by explosive runs by rookie RJ Harvey, otherwise holding J.K. Dobbins to just 3.9 yards per tote.
As was touched on above, this offense is extremely concentrated about its top playmakers. Nacua remains the lead pass catcher after a ridiculous 0.52 targets per route run (TPRR) in Week 1. He was forced to primarily work the intermediate areas of the field against a strong Texans unit, leading to modest 8.4-yard aDOT and 6.19 yards per route run (YPRR) marks. Adams might have lost a step physically but he remains one of the smartest receivers in the league, something that should prolong his career. He was responsible for a solid 0.31 TPRR but also was a victim of the Houston defense, resulting in an 8.8-yard aDOT and 1.96 yards per route run. The difference in expected fantasy points between the top two pass catchers was minimal, highlighting the role Adams will have in this offense in 2025.
Tyler Higbee (56.3% route rate), Tutu Atwell (53.1%), Davis Allen (34.4%), Colby Parkinson (28.1%), and Jordan Whittington (28.1%) round out the pass-catching corps, none of whom are serious fantasy bets in this offense, barring injury. Slot corner Roger McCreary has had an up-and-down career through three seasons, but he graded as PFF’s No. 6 corner out of 113 qualifiers in coverage grade in Week 1. He should see a lot of Nacua here. L’Jarius Snead has been a top coverage corner for much of his illustrious career (7/113 in Week 1). Jarvis Brownlee is the weak link in the secondary as far as coverage is concerned, largely making his mark against the run. Consider it a difficult matchup on paper through the air.
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