Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- Kyren Williams is typically not a threat to pierce the 100-yard threshold considering low explosive run rates and high neutral pass rates from the Rams. That said, this is not a normal matchup.
- The Rams are averaging over 400 yards per game of total offense while the Ravens are allowing more than 400 yards per game on defense.
- Davante Adams ranks second in the league in end-zone targets with nine through five games.
- Isaiah Likely has seen snap counts of 46% and 53% in his two games this season.
- The Ravens could get back S Kyle Hamilton (full practice Thursday), CB Marlon Humphrey (limited Thursday), and T Ronnie Stanley (full Thursday) but are still reeling on the injury front.
JM’S JOURNAL ::
Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.
How LOS ANGELES Will Try To Win ::
Sean McVay is having a field day with this offense this year. The Rams rank second in pace of play, 15th in points per game (24.6), second in total offense (401.8 yards per game), and 12th in plays per game (63.2). They also rank fifth in pass rate over expectation (PROE) with two games more than a standard deviation above neutral through five games played. They’ve done all that while also ranking in the top half of the league in points allowed per game and total offense allowed, and if not for two blocked field goals against the Eagles and an overtime loss to the 49ers, could very easily be sitting at 5-0. The offense is highly dynamic and built to get the ball to its top playmakers, operating with a seventh-ranked 61.08% pass play rate. I expect them to start in a pass-balanced stature and remain that way for as long as the game remains within reason.
Williams ranks in the top 10 in most advanced metrics and got up to a 91% snap rate in Week 5. He carries a low stuff rate (30.5%) but a comparatively low explosive run rate (2.4%), consistently churning out positive yardage while rarely breaking off long runs. He averages 16.4 carries per game and had seen between two and four targets in each of the first four games before his 10-target eruption in Week 5, painting a clear picture of his likeliest scenario in a normal game. Expect a baseline of 16-18 carries and two to four targets, which typically keeps him from threatening the 100-yard bonus on DraftKings when weighed against his advanced metrics. The man is a touchdown machine in this lineup, scoring four times in five appearances this year. This is not a normal matchup, however, against a Ravens defense allowing 408.8 yards per game, 4.7 yards per carry, and 146.4 rush yards per game, while also dealing with a litany of injuries on the defensive side of the ball. We’ll need to see practice reports on Friday, but this team is coming off playing an NFL game with only two players that began the season as a starter.
Crash the leaderboards
PFP the OWS pennant
Puka Nacua leads the league in most advanced receiving metrics but likely needs to run hot in the touchdown department to threaten the triple crown. The dude is just that good and is emphasized in an offense near the top of the league in pass rate. He will remain the top play on paper at the position for as long as he remains healthy. The biggest issues are low red-zone involvement (zero end-zone targets on the season) and his ballooning salary, two things that could just not matter if he keeps averaging close to 30 DK points per game. Those red-zone and end-zone targets are almost exclusively flowing through Adams, who ranks second in the league in end-zone targets with nine (behind only George Pickens). Puka and Adams are the only near every-down pass catchers in the offense, with Jordan Whittington, Tutu Atwell, Tyler Higbee, Davis Allen, and Colby Parkinson all filling rotational roles, while Konata Mumpfield, Xavier Smith, and Terrance Ferguson contribute in specific packages at low frequency. Nothing should change within that structure for as long as the game remains within reason.
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