Rams (

23.5) at
Jaguars (

20.5)

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

This week’s European game has the Rams and the Jaguars playing in London in a 44.5 total game with LA favored by 3. It’s a bit of a drag that the Rams aren’t on the main slate for this one, but alas. It should still be a fun Showdown.

JACKSONVILLE

On the Jags side of things, Travis Etienne has had a pretty solid lock on the RB1 role (not bad for a guy who was expected to lose his job to Tank Bigsby during the offseason!). Etienne is averaging right around 60% of the snaps with at least 16 touches in every game. At just $7,800, that’s a great workload, and the Jags run blocking has been excellent this year (they’re the #1 team in run blocking win rate by ESPN’s rankings). Etienne also has 70% of the running back rush attempts in the red zone on the season. The role is robust. The matchup is kind of gross against a Rams defense that has only allowed one running back to reach 100 rushing yards all season (and it was Derrick Henry on 24 carries), but with running backs, we generally care more about opportunity than matchup (or talent), and the opportunity is there. Worth noting is that Etienne is the only player priced between $5,400 and $9,200, which is an absolutely massive gap. That’s likely to result in his ownership being quite high, as he just fits for so many rosters that have salary in that price range, but personally, I don’t really worry about ownership at running back. RB2 is Bhayshul Tuten, who is averaging 5 or so touches per game with little passing game work and thus looks overpriced at $4,800. LaQuint Allen fills out the position as a very thin punt who has 9 touches on the year.

In the passing game, the Jags aerial attack is finally starting to come together, and it starts with Brian Thomas Jr., who started off the season on a terrible cold streak but has 80 and 90 receiving yards in their last two games. This is a really tough matchup, but Thomas is capable of hitting in any spot. The pricing dynamic on this one is interesting with Puka Nacua ruled out – it’s going to shove a ton of ownership over to the Rams other two studs, and it could result in Thomas being overlooked compared to Davante Adams and Kyren Williams. Adams and Kyren are objectively better plays than Thomas, but BTJ’s ceiling is still right up there with theirs. Behind Thomas are Travis Hunter and Dyami Brown in full time roles and then Parker Washington and Tim Patrick in rotational roles. Hunter has had a slow start to his NFL career offensively, having yet to reach even 10 DK points in a game, but his price has dipped all the way to $5,400 (from an $8,200 Showdown price in Week 1), and that’s enough to make me start to take notice. Hunter is talented, and while many rookies start off slow in the NFL, I expect he’ll come around at some point, and it’s the kind of spot where it’s often better to be early than to wait till the guy shows it. Hunter isn’t a comfortable play, but he’s solid from a “what do you win when you win?” perspective, as he’s priced around other value plays who are likely to be much more popular and thus I expect his ownership is going to come at a significant discount. Brown falls into basically the same boat – he’s cheaper than Hunter, he’s less talented than Hunter, and he’s likely to pull relatively modest ownership because of the Rams value guys priced around him. Of the two, I prefer Hunter as I’d rather bet on the more talented player. Washington and Patrick are part-time players, with Washington consistently seeing 2-4 targets per game while Patrick seems to get exactly 1 target per game, oddly. Both are thin options on a slate chock full of value.

At tight end, with Brenton Strange hurt, Hunter Long stepped into a big role, playing 80% of the snaps (more than any other skill position player except BTJ), but it only resulted in 3 targets. Something to remember: when a new guy fills in for a hurt guy, the new guy doesn’t necessarily get the same target rate. Long is a relatively raw rookie who was a 3rd round pick. He only had 89 receptions in his college career, so it’s reasonable to think he still has some seasoning to do. He’s another guy who’s going to get lost in the value bonanza of this slate – I prefer him to the rotational WRs like Washington and Patrick, but the Rams are going to outproject all of these guys. We’ll talk about that more in the dynamics of the slate a bit later on. TE2 Johnny Mundt can be viewed as a thin dart throw.

los angeles