Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- TE Dallas Goedert returned to a limited practice on Wednesday after missing the team’s Week 2 win over the Chiefs.
- RB Will Shipley remained out of action on Wednesday and appears headed for a second consecutive absence in Week 3.
- The Eagles struggled through the air against two defenses that rank in the top six in two-high rates, while the Rams rank dead last at just 29.3%.
- If there were a matchup to get A.J. Brown going, this would be it.
- Both of these offenses are extremely concentrated. Both of these teams are typically good at winning by out-maneuvering their opponents. But both teams are clearly capable of erupting in the right environment. This game has my attention this week in a spot that the field is highly likely to overlook.
- Puka Nacua and Davante Adams combine to account for 0.80 TPRR (targets per route run), 75.9% of the team’s air yards, and 64.5% of the targets in the Rams’ offense.
- The Rams have missed a grand total of ZERO tackles through two games, which highlights the level of coaching this team has received this year.
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How los angeles Will Try To Win ::
The Rams typically run a slow-paced offense designed to sustain drives and wear down their opponents, and they now have a defense that allows them to execute that game plan. Defensive coordinator Chris Shula has one of the league’s youngest defenses playing at an extremely high level. That said, they completely outmatched their opponents in the first two weeks, manhandling both the Texans and Titans. Their opponent in Week 3 presents a very different challenge. The Rams currently rank dead last in two-high utilization and 29th in blitz rate, two things I expect to continue against the Eagles. We could see their Cover-1 rates dip so they have more eyes in the backfield to contain Jalen Hurts, but I expect their base to continue being Cover-3. Their offense remains ridiculously concentrated. Puka Nacua and Davante Adams combine to account for 0.80 TPRR, 75.9% of the team’s air yards, and 64.5% of the targets in the Rams offense. The thesis I’m getting at here is that this team could provide some legitimate blowup games if an opponent forces them out of their conservative offensive shell. And while the Eagles haven’t necessarily shown that this season, we know what they are capable of.
All the offseason talks of Blake Corum being more involved in this offense appear to be completely off base, with Kyren Williams ranked fifth in opportunity share, seventh in snap rate, sixth in carries, and eighth in red zone opportunities (two goal line carries). He remains near the top of the “workhorse back scale.” The pure rushing matchup is a poor one against an Eagles defense allowing just 1.63 yards before contact per attempt, even though they have allowed 5.0 yards per carry through two games. Consider it a neutral-to-negative matchup on the ground, with Williams a good bet to approach or exceed 20 carries in the right game environment.
Nacua and Adams are such a massive portion of this pass offense, and almost everything within the structure is designed to generate space and/or create mismatches for their top two options through the air. Sean McVay continues to utilize heavy rates of pre-snap motion and unique play designs, and he now has two weapons playing at an elite level. It’s a far different setup than either of the previous two seasons, with a declining Cooper Kupp, and not much in the way of elite talent behind Nacua. That simply places so much pressure on an opposing defense, and Matthew Stafford is still capable of carving up a defense in his advanced age. My preseason thesis surrounding Jordan Whittington seems to be coming to fruition as he’s played just 11 offensive snaps less than Nacua, while Tutu Atwell, preseason standout Konata Mumpfield, and Xavier Smith operate in rotational roles based on specific packages. The team started the season utilizing a three tight end rotation before the injury to Colby Parkinson, which devolved into a two tight end system (as opposed to getting rookie Terrance Ferguson more involved, who is a complete afterthought at present). Both Nacua and Adams bring sky-high weekly ceilings in the current structure of this offense.
How philadelphia Will Try To Win ::
The Philadelphia offense lacks the same creativity and misdirection we’ve grown accustomed to in recent history, instead ditching elevated motion rates, dynamic route layering, and varied situational tendencies almost altogether. It’s only two games, so I don’t want to immediately proclaim new offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo a lost cause, but things certainly seem to be trending in that direction. They’ve maintained elevated rush rates (28th-ranked PROE, second-ranked 36.0 rush attempts per game) but are lacking the same dynamism behind it, which makes their 2-0 start a bit misleading. They narrowly beat the Cowboys in the opening weekend before narrowly beating the Chiefs in Week 2, scoring a combined 44 points (22 per game) after putting up 29.0 points per game in 2024. The elite talent they have on their offense makes it so complete offensive duds are unlikely, but this team could be performing so much better if their offensive tendencies were altered a bit. On the other side of the ball, they have held two solid opponents to an average of 18.5 points per game, which has allowed them to keep with the muted tendencies throughout. Their opponent in Week 3 is likely equipped to push the Eagles better than any team they have faced up to this point, and I wouldn’t be shocked if the Rams came away with a victory here.
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The Philadelphia ground game is Saquon Barkley and then everyone else. Quarterback Jalen Hurts leads the league in designed quarterback runs with 23, which also includes all the tush pushes the Eagles typically run. A.J. Dillon has been the primary change-of-pace option behind Barkley with Will Shipley on the shelf, but has just six total touches in two games, three carries each. Philadelphia’s offensive line remains elite, blocking to the second-most yards before contact per attempt (3.08), but Barkley has struggled to just 3.7 yards per carry with a lowly 2.5% explosive run rate against one elite run defense (Chiefs) and one defense that has no business being in the top half of the league against the run (Cowboys). This is also likely a product of the more static nature of the team’s situational tendencies and overall offensive structure under Patullo. The Rams rank in the middle of the pack against the run, and Barkley brings elite touchdown upside in this offense still, making him an interesting option to consider at likely low ownership.
The static nature of the offense has been most evident through the air. Both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith nursed offseason injuries coming into 2025, but it’s difficult to explain the poor production away due to the receivers. It is much more likely to be the structure of the offense. Hurts has more tush pushes this season than he does completed passes beyond five yards of the line of scrimmage, which is a downright ridiculous stat considering the talent of his pass-catchers. Both the Cowboys and the Chiefs rank in the top six in two-high alignments, something that could also help explain the poor performances from the primary pass-catchers (and Hurts). Conversely, the Rams rank dead last in two-high rates to begin the season, instead playing mostly from Cover-3 (44.0%) and Cover-1 (26.7%). This should be the first chance the Eagles have to truly attack downfield this season, which is likeliest to benefit A.J. Brown. The likely return of Dallas Goedert gives the offense another primary pass-catcher that they sorely missed against the Chiefs, but the schematic matchup against the Rams is a poor one.
Likeliest Game Flow ::
The Eagles have largely looked flat on offense through two games, but each of the teams they’ve played thus far ranks in the top six in two-high utilization while the Rams rank dead last in that metric. The structure of their defense is just far different than what Philadelphia saw with the Cowboys and Chiefs. Splash plays through the air are much more likely for the Eagles here than in their first two games, which is music to A.J. Brown’s (and his fantasy managers’) ears. It also provides a clearer path to upside from the game environment, as the Rams aren’t typically responsible for providing some form of ignition source, but they have players capable of responding should their offensive play-calling tendencies shift due to the game environment. Color me intrigued from a spot the field is highly unlikely to get to based on how the Eagles have looked through two games. To be clear, the likeliest scenario has this game playing to a competitive slugfest, but the paths to upside are likely to carry low ownership, are clearer than they have been for either team this season, and carry immense ceiling due to the concentration of volume on each of these offenses.
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