Game Overview ::
By HILOW >>
- The Colts rank second in EPA/play while the Raiders rank 28th.
- The Colts are quickly becoming one of my favorite teams to watch as a real-world football fan. Their offense is a legitimate thing of beauty.
- The Colts have forced the fourth-highest pass rate against this season (36.17%) due in large part to their ability to control game environments.
- Both of these teams have forced top four rates of pass rate over expectation (PROE) defensively, although the Raiders’ value is skewed due to early matchups against the Chargers and Patriots, two teams that currently rank in the top four in PROE.
- WR Alec Pierce is due back from a missed game due to a concussion after practicing in full Wednesday.
- The Raiders could quickly find themselves in uncomfortable territory here, forced to attack the intermediate areas of the field through the air against a zone-heavy Colts team allowing the fewest FP/DB from zone this season.
How LAS VEGAS Will Try To Win ::
The Raiders have not scored more than 24 points in a game this season. The Jets have, the Panthers have, the Dolphins have, the Texans have. In fact, every other team on the Week 5 main slate outside of the Titans and Saints have. That’s just not how this team is approaching games this season considering a 22nd-ranked PROE and 19th-ranked pace of play (30.0 sec/play), while quarterback Geno Smith ranks 20th in first-half pass attempts (59, or just under 15 per game), with a 59.0 QBR and 3-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio with a robust 10.0% sack rate in the first half this season. The Raiders trailed the Patriots, 10-7, at the break in Week 1, trailed the Chargers, 10-3, at the break in Week 2, trailed the Commanders, 20-10, at the break in Week 3, and led the Bears, 14-9, at the break in Week 4, while being one of only three teams on the Week 5 main slate to fail to score more than 24 points in any game this season. All of that to say, this team is almost entirely subject to game environment and is not ever really going to push things on its own, instead intent on shortening games with an aim at winning late. That makes sense considering their new head coach in Pete Carroll, who has routinely structured his teams in that manner throughout his coaching career.
Raheem Mostert made his season debt in Week 4, which immediately rendered Zamir White a healthy inactive. Dylan Laube and his special-teams involvement kept him active on game day. Enigmatic rookie Ashton Jeanty returned to a robust workload in a game environment that allowed for it, taking 21 carries for 138 yards and a score while adding two touchdowns on as many targets through the air in a true breakout performance against the Bears. That said, he has just eight total targets on the season in what should be viewed as a true yardage-and-touchdown role. The Colts have allowed 4.5 yards per carry behind the fourth-most yards allowed before contact per attempt (2.48), but the shortcomings of the Las Vegas offensive line (1.65 yards before contact) make this a neutral pure rushing matchup. Jeanty has a well-below-average 52.9% stuff rate while forcing one of the highest missed-tackle rates (0.32 missed tackled forced per attempt) in the league, highlighting a situation where his talent has had to overcome poor scheme and blocking.
The Raiders do not have a pass catcher commanding more than 24.4% of available targets (Jakobi Meyers), 0.27 targets per route run (TPRR) (Michael Mayer, albeit just seven targets on 26 routes), or 2.08 yards per route run (YPRR) (Brock Bowers). Furthermore, Geno Smith’s career red-zone struggles have not improved in Las Vegas, with just two passing scores inside the red zone on eight attempts (Tre Tucker has both red-zone scores through the air for the Raiders this season). Additionally, Meyers leads the team with a lowly 13.2 expected fantasy points per game (XFP/G) this year, reinforcing the relatively modest fantasy upside this team brings to the table through the air. Meyers (9.4-yard aDOT) and Bowers (7.6-yard aDOT) are the two pass catchers best positioned to exploit the heavy zone tendencies of the Colts, but the upside is rather limited from each.
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