Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- WR Stefon Diggs has had a coming out the previous two weeks but is still part of a five-man rotation at wide receiver, for a team deploying 12-personnel at some of the highest rates in the league.
- The Patriots have increased their per-game scoring from 2024 to 2025 by more than all but two teams this season (Colts and Cowboys), ranking 12th in points per game at 25.0 this year after scoring just 17.0 points per game in 2024.
- This game environment is set up far differently than the one the Saints found themselves in last week. Remember, we (or, at least, I) were targeting this offense last week, with very few paths to the game environment getting out of hand.
- I don’t think we’re anywhere close to the TreVeyon Henderson takeover that many fantasy analysts have been clamoring for in recent weeks (more below).
JM’S JOURNAL ::
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How new england Will Try To Win ::
The Patriots currently rank sixth in PROE with two games more than one standard deviation over neutral already this season. The biggest contributing factor to that stance is likely a run game averaging only 3.7 yards per carry (28th) due to a bottom-five offensive line (sixth fewest yards before contact per attempt and eighth highest pressure rate allowed). That sets up an interesting spot against a Saints defense facing bottom 10 PROE values this season. I expect we see a more neutral game called from Josh McDaniels, considering the opponent, and we’ve already seen quarterback Drake Maye attempt 30 or fewer passes in three of five games this season (all three New England wins). In other words, if the Patriots are controlling this game environment, it is highly unlikely we see massive volume from Maye in this spot.
The ground game devolved into a two-headed, strict timeshare in Week 5 in the absence of Antonio Gibson, who will miss the rest of the season with a torn ACL. Beyond that, we already have reports out of New England that the team is deploying their patented “next man up” mentality with the situation, specifically speaking to practice squad running back Terrell Jennings. Jennings is likely to find himself on the active roster come Sunday to serve as a kickoff specialist alongside rookie TreVeyon Henderson (the team stuck Rhamondre Stevenson back there following the injury to Gibson, but he does not bring similar upside in that phase of the game), meaning we could also see him grab offensive snaps behind the top two. We’ve been waiting for the Henderson breakout for multiple weeks now, but he still appears not to be trusted in pass protection. That’s important due to the shortcomings of the offensive line, a unit giving up pressure at the eighth highest rate this season. That idea gains increased traction when you consider Stevenson’s fumbling issues. As in, wouldn’t this team work someone else in at a higher rate, if they had someone they trusted? Which is to say, I don’t think we’re close to Henderson taking over the lion’s share of backfield opportunities for the Patriots. What we’re left with is a timeshare backfield against a Saints defense near the middle of the pack in most rushing metrics. Not much to love with that setup.
Stefon Diggs has become a true alpha in this New England offense, at least as underlying metrics are concerned. He has a 39.6% target rate, 0.49 TPRR, 54.5% air yards share, and a ridiculous 6.33 YPRR in the previous two games. But he still hasn’t exceeded a 63% snap rate this season (63% and 50% the past two games) in an offense that utilizes 12-personnel at some of the heaviest rates in the league, while also deploying a five-man rotation at wide receiver. That said, there is further upside to Diggs should he start to see heavier snap rates and route participation rates (67.2% the previous two games), the further he gets from his ACL injury. Tight end Hunter Henry’s 10.2 aDOT this season paces the league at the position, of tight ends to see more than 15 targets (Darren Waller holds an 11.6 aDOT on nine targets, and Cole Kmet holds an 11.3 aDOT on 15 targets). That highlights how he is being utilized in this offense, far from a short-area magnet. Kayshon Boutte is the only other pass-catcher in a route on greater than 50% of the team’s dropbacks (68.1%), while all of Mack Hollins, DeMario Douglas, Kyle Williams, and Austin Hooper have seen meaningful snaps. The Saints have faced a middling 7.6 defensive aDOT while playing heavy rates of zone (74.9%) and heavy rates of single-high (58.3%), mostly via a Cover-3 rate that ranks fifth in the league (39.4%). Diggs handily leads the team in production against Cover-3 this season, setting him up for another solid showing on his modest $5,800 DK salary.
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