Patriots (

20) at
Dolphins (

22.5)

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• This game involves the two teams that were at the top of the league in blitz rate in Week 1 (MIA: 51.5%, NE: 43.6%).
• The Patriots left Week 1 ranked first in PROE at 14.3%.
• New England blocked to the second fewest adjusted yards before contact, while the Dolphins ceded the fifth fewest in Week 1 – the matchup on the ground is poor for the Patriots.
• The Dolphins appear legitimately broken on offense – the tape shows so much more than simply “this team is seeing an increased rate of two-high.”
• Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but this game carries an extremely wide range of outcomes.

How new england Will Try To Win ::

The Patriots effectively threw caution to the wind in Week 1. They left the season’s first week with the highest pass rate over expectation and second-highest blitz rate, making them one of, if not the, most aggressive teams in the league (small sample size alert, through one game). But those tendencies also check out on the surface, considering their offseason coaching changes. Mike Vrabel and Terrell Williams coached together in Tennessee, where the two combined to create a defense with, and I quote, “unwavering violence.” I think that effectively summarizes what to expect from the Patriots this season, and Week 1 delivered on that promise.

The elevated pass rates appear to be more out of necessity than out of desire, to me, in that this team likely doesn’t want to be near the top of the league in PROE if they can help it. The issue here is twofold: (1) the New England offensive line blocked to the lowest adjusted line yards before contact of any team in Week 1 (1.32), and (2) the Dolphins allowed just 1.68 adjusted yards before contact (fifth) to the Colts. I think it’s likely we see another game where their offensive game plan devolves into increased rates of aerial aggression. Much of the low yards per carry allowed by the Dolphins in Week 1 should be attributed to their borderline egregious stacked box rates, with the team almost making heavy boxes their base against the Colts. This backfield was very much a “lead back and change of pace back” situation in Week 1, something that took a lot of the industry by surprise. Rhamondre Stevenson is not sailing off into the wind without a fight here, and I don’t think the powers that be in New England want that, either. Stevenson saw a solid 65% snap rate and handled 13 running back opportunities (seven carries and six targets) to the 11 of Henderson (35% snap rate). I also found it interesting that the team used effectively zero 21-personnel in their loss, something that is atypical of a Josh McDaniels’ offense. Fullback/tight end Jack Westover played just two offensive snaps while Antonio Gibson saw just five. For all the things the Dolphins did poorly against the Colts, they did hold Jonathan Taylor to 3.9 yards per carry and DJ Giddens to 3.4 yards per carry. In other words, the strength of this defense is its seven-man front.

On the contrary, the Miami secondary is in shambles, and if this team is going to continue to blitz like they did in Week 1 (league-leading 51.5%), we should continue to see them getting burned through the air. That sets up Kayshon Boutte for a nice spot on paper in Week 2 after the third-year receiver led the team in snaps, route participation, targets (tied with Hunter Henry), receptions (tied with Stefon Diggs and Henderson), and yardage, amongst wide receivers. He was their featured player when watching that game back on film, with him moving around the formation and with him having the most intricate route tree on the team. Mack Hollins is effectively dust at this point, Diggs is clearly being eased back while coming off the lost season due to an ACL injury (41% snap rate), and DeMario Douglas is a slot-only receiver. Henry actually led the team in snap rate (93%) but trailed Boutte in route participation (74%). If I’m targeting a pass-catcher on the Patriots (I think we should be considering it this week), that player is Boutte.

How miami Will Try To Win ::