Game Overview ::
By Hilow >>
- The Patriots are in a good place as far as injuries are concerned, with only LBs Harold Landry (knee) and Marte Mapu (hip) listed as ‘DNP’s Wednesday. Landry continues to receive practices off as he tends to a lingering knee issue that he has played through for the better part of the last month.
- The same can not be said of the Broncos, with the biggest influence to their game plan here clearly the absence of QB Bo Nix. Nix broke a bone in his ankle on a kneel down to reposition the football for the game-winning field goal attempt in the Divisional Round and will miss the remainder of the postseason run after undergoing surgery early this week. Jarrett Stidham will start the Conference Championship for the Broncos.
- WR Mack Hollins is reportedly set to practice Thursday and could find himself activated from IR by the weekend.
- WRs Pat Bryant (concussion) and Troy Franklin (hamstring) were limited on Wednesday for the Broncos, with the bigger concern being Bryant after a second concussion in the Divisional Round.
- RB J.K. Dobbins got in a limited session Wednesday as he attempts to return from an extended absence due to a foot injury. It was his first practice since November.
- As is normally the case this time of year, both defenses rank in the top six in both points allowed per game and yards allowed per game.
How NEW ENGLAND Will Try To Win ::
The Patriots have trailed for all of 2:30 through their first two postseason games, during which time quarterback Drake Maye has averaged only 28 pass attempts per game. The team now gets another break as they face off against a Broncos team without its starting quarterback after the injury to Nix at the tail end of their win last weekend. And it’s not like they’ve faced walkover opponents, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. On the contrary, the Patriots beat the Chargers (eighth in points allowed per game at 19.8 and seventh in yards allowed per game at 290.6) and the Texans (second in points allowed per game and first in yards allowed per game at 271.9), making the fact that they’re now facing off against another top-five defense less of an issue. The Patriots have been one of the more efficient offenses in the league this season, ranking first in yards per pass attempt and fifth in points per game. Which is to say, we should expect New England to find some level of offensive success, matchup be damned. Furthermore, the Patriots deploy a “bully ball” rushing game and are capable of moving the ball efficiently over the short areas of the field through the air as an extension of the run, two things that the Broncos have either not been overly tested against or have ceded grades well below their seasonal average throughout the season. Finally, the homefield advantage for the Broncos is less of an issue for the Patriots, considering they ranked second in the league in road scoring during the regular season (behind only the Rams). From a macro perspective, the recent defensive trends we’ve seen out of New England hold true for the 2025 version of the team. They want to force opponents to march the field while limiting splash plays and cracking down in the red zone, really coming on strong to end the season while allowing a touchdown on only 22.22% of opposing red-zone trips in their previous three games, playoffs included.
Crash the leaderboards
PFP the OWS pennant
The backfield has largely been a product of their opponents considering the poor pass-blocking abilities of rookie TreVeyon Henderson, meaning incumbent starter Rhamondre Stevenson typically sees his involvement in the offense grow against opponents with above-average pass rushes. That was the case against both the Chargers and Texans and should remain the case against a Broncos team that led the league in sacks this year. Stevenson played 62% and 63% of the team’s offensive snaps in their two playoff games while handling 14 and 20 opportunities (10 and 14 for Henderson), giving us a solid baseline expectation for the Conference Championship. That also includes four targets in each game to the three total targets for Henderson. The pure rushing matchup is poor on the ground against a Denver defense holding opposing backfields to 4.0 yards per carry, 96.2 rush yards per game (fourth), and the fewest fantasy points per game (17.3) this season.
The Patriots have refused to move away from a five-man rotation at wide receiver, almost regardless of injuries, matchup, or situation this season. That has held true through their first two postseason games, as the absence of Hollins allowed undrafted free agent rookie Efton Chism to to remain involved in the offense. Hollins returned to the practice field Thursday after having his practice window opened earlier in the week, but it remains to be seen whether he’ll prove healthy enough to be active come Sunday. Expect Chism to be the odd man out on game day should Hollins return or remain involved in a complementary role should he miss. The route-participation hierarchy during their two playoff games so far goes as follows: Diggs (82.2%), Hunter Henry (78.1%), Kayshon Boutte (75.3%), DeMario Douglas (47.9%), Austin Hooper (30.1%), Kyle Williams (30.1%), and Chism (8.2%). I would expect Hollins to be somewhere in the range of Hooper, Williams, and Chism considering the missed time, should he return. Boutte, Williams, and Hollins are really perimeter-only players while Douglas is really a slot-only player, leaving Diggs in a hybrid role all over the formation. That gives Diggs the best opportunity to avoid lockdown coverage from Pat Surtain on most of his snaps considering Surtain rarely travels into the slot. The Broncos also play a good deal of man coverage (fourth-ranked 36.1% during the regular season), against which it was all Diggs (0.27 TPRR, 2.71 YPRR, and 0.63 FP/RR) and Douglas (0.25 TPRR, 4.07 YPRR, and 0.81 FP/RR) for the Patriots this year.
